4455 Old Frederick Rd · Baltimore, MD 21229

$219,999

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · Townhouse public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1948 Est $205k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is now under auction terms. NO TRESPASSING. DO NOT DISTURB ANY OCCUPANTS! Auction and no access. All bids should be submitted through www. Auction.com - DO NOT email offers. This property is subject to a 5% buyer's premium pursuant to the Auction Terms & Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction assets will be sold subject to seller approval. Auction begins 02-08-2021 and ends 02-10-2021. Occupied property, inspections not available - sold as-is. No for sale sign. Contact with occupants is prohibited. Property information provided is estimated.

Key facts

• Built 1948
• Listed 27 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not in a federal flood zone; 36"+ wide halls (accessibility feature); Basement present: connecting stairway, fully finished, outside entrance; Below-grade finished area and unfinished area present; Vacation rental allowed; Pets allowed with no restrictions; Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Alley access
• Utilities: Public water; Public septic; Electric available; Natural gas available; Hot water: Electric; Internet service: Other
• Home design: End of row townhouse; Three levels (total); Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Brick/mortar foundation; Shingle roof; Double-pane windows; Building not winterized
• Exterior features: Sidewalks; Deck(s); Porch(es)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Stove; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level; One bedroom on the first lower level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on upper level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating fuel; Cooling: Other (natural gas listed as cooling fuel)
• Interior features: Attic; Tub with shower; Double-entry doors; Brick and drywall walls/ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elmer A. Henderson: A Johns Hopkins Partnership (math 2% / reading 16%, grade F, #650 of 860 statewide, top 77%, 642 students, 80% FRL); Baltimore Polytechnic Institute (math 71% / reading 84%, grade A-, #22 of 222 statewide, top 10%, 1,555 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 79% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baltimore City Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $220k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,554 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.79%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $205,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Upmanor Rd	0.17mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,408 (-1%)	1mo	$205,000	$146	86
4516 Pen Lucy Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (0%)	2mo	$205,000	$145	81
509 Normandy Ave	0.60mi	4/2.5	1,458 (+3%)	1mo	$212,000	$145	60
44 N Athol Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,224 (-14%)	3mo	$121,600	$99	59
48 Hillvale Rd	0.30mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,224 (-14%)	2mo	$180,000	$147	55
38 Hillvale Rd	0.32mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,224 (-14%)	3mo	$160,000	$131	55
347 Yale Ave	0.74mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,436 (+1%)	3mo	$215,000	$150	53
40 Hillvale Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (-14%)	2mo	$230,000	$188	52
3716 Edmondson Ave	0.74mi	4/1.0	1,512 (+7%)	2mo	$130,000	$86	52
4626 Frederick Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+11%)	2mo	$165,000	$105	46
733 Lyndhurst St	0.73mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,550 (+10%)	2mo	$85,000	$55	42
827 N Augusta Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+13%)	3mo	$211,000	$132	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-24,809
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $7,421
• Equity at exit: $19,021

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21229

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,155/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,909

Max offer price $219,999

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $154	+0% $92	+5% $30	+10% $-33
Rent	-10% $-68	-5% $12	+0% $92	+5% $172	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $203	-0.5pp $148	base $92	+0.5pp $35	+1.0pp $-23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Upmanor Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1224	$2,163	$1.77	45d	1	0.17mi
219 Atholgate Ln Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	814	$1,500	$1.84	5d	2	0.37mi
2 S Tremont Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	12d	1	0.48mi
2 S Tremont Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	25d	1	0.48mi
19 S Tremont Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,850	$1.37	45d	1	0.51mi
917 Kevin Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,795	$1.56	3d	1	0.55mi
409 Normandy Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1640	$1,500	$0.91	25d	1	0.59mi
117 Collins Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1617	$2,350	$1.45	45d	1	0.60mi
114 S Rock Glen Rd Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1160	$2,350	$2.03	14d	1	0.62mi
4020 Gelston Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,875	$1.48	45d	1	0.62mi
4018 Massachusetts Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	25d	1	0.65mi
212 S Loudon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1310	$1,550	$1.18	45d	1	0.71mi
304 Collins Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1016	$2,100	$2.07	45d	1	0.76mi
1216 N Augusta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,550	$1.51	25d	1	0.78mi
3712 Gelston Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	25d	1	0.79mi
5147 Frederick Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,950	$1.60	5d	1	0.80mi
3607 W Lexington St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,895	$1.80	6d	1	0.80mi
4103 Mountwood Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1030	$1,700	$1.65	45d	1	0.83mi
4113 Mountwood Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1520	$1,795	$1.18	45d	1	0.83mi
202 N Edgewood St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,250	$1.32	25d	1	0.85mi
623 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	25d	1	0.87mi
3507 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1428	$2,300	$1.61	45d	1	0.90mi
4301 Parkton St Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	730	$1,550	$2.12	45d	1	0.91mi
501 Hazlett Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1044	$1,750	$1.68	0d	8	0.91mi
405 N Edgewood St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1408	$2,750	$1.95	0d	1	0.91mi
4431 Eldone Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	896	$2,000	$2.23	25d	1	0.93mi
730 Linnard St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1360	$1,750	$1.29	25d	1	0.95mi
500 Lucia Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1472	$2,100	$1.43	18d	1	0.97mi
5364 Jamestowne Ct Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–1.5	787	$1,905	$2.42	0d	15	0.97mi
41 N Kossuth St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,800	$1.48	25d	1	0.99mi
603 Braeside Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,400	$1.69	45d	1	1.02mi
787 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1116	$1,575	$1.41	25d	1	1.03mi
798 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,295	$1.69	25d	1	1.04mi
3336 W Caton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,625	$1.31	25d	1	1.04mi
780 Linnard St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,590	$1.30	45d	1	1.04mi
586 Lucia Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1178	$2,100	$1.78	19d	1	1.10mi
751 Yale Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,750	$1.71	45d	1	1.13mi
627 Lucia Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	892	$1,750	$1.96	25d	1	1.16mi
613 S Beechfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,950	$1.81	45d	1	1.17mi
670 Queensgate Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	6d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,999 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,999 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,999 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,999 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,999 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,999 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,999 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,999 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,999 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,999 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,999 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,999 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,999 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,999 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    historical $219,999
16. 2021-03-15
    soldstatus $95,550 Closed 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    This property is now under auction terms. NO TRESPASSING. DO NOT DISTURB ANY OCCUPANTS! Auction and no access. All bids should be submitted through www. Auction.com - DO NOT email offers. This property is subject to a 5% buyer's premium pursuant to the Auction Terms & Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction assets will be sold subject to seller approval. Auction begins 02-08-2021 and ends 02-10-2021. Occupied property, inspections not available - sold as-is. No for sale sign. Contact with occupants is prohibited. Property information provided is estimated.

17. 2021-02-12
    status Pending 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    This property is now under auction terms. NO TRESPASSING. DO NOT DISTURB ANY OCCUPANTS! Auction and no access. All bids should be submitted through www. Auction.com - DO NOT email offers. This property is subject to a 5% buyer's premium pursuant to the Auction Terms & Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction assets will be sold subject to seller approval. Auction begins 02-08-2021 and ends 02-10-2021. Occupied property, inspections not available - sold as-is. No for sale sign. Contact with occupants is prohibited. Property information provided is estimated.

18. 2020-11-13
    listed $90,000 Active 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    This property is now under auction terms. NO TRESPASSING. DO NOT DISTURB ANY OCCUPANTS! Auction and no access. All bids should be submitted through www. Auction.com - DO NOT email offers. This property is subject to a 5% buyer's premium pursuant to the Auction Terms & Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction assets will be sold subject to seller approval. Auction begins 02-08-2021 and ends 02-10-2021. Occupied property, inspections not available - sold as-is. No for sale sign. Contact with occupants is prohibited. Property information provided is estimated.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,155 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,155 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,155
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$2,561
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$615
• After-tax cash flow: $1,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 46,679
• Household income: $60,047
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2776.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.07%
• Current HPI: 226.896
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+144.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Coming Soon $219,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-03-15 Sold (MLS) $95,550 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-02-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-11-13 Listed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,155 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.