17040 W Calle Carmela · Avra Valley, AZ 85653

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1997 1.00 ac lot $187/sqft · 8% below area Est $249k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

An incredible opportunity waits for anyone interested in getting away from the city. This is a 3 bedroom / 2 bathroom slice of heaven, waiting for someone to put their personal stamp on it. Make this house your home and have an acre to play around in. Run, don't walk. Don't let this on slip through your fingers. Online auction begins 02/04/17 and ends 02/08/17.

Key facts

• Ample parking
• No hoa restrictions
• Two storage sheds

Tags

• DESERT VIEWS
• SUNSET VIEWS
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS
• RV HOOKUP
• AMPLE PARKING
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association amenities; Horses allowed; Paved street in community

Exterior

• Parking: RV access/parking
• Security: Alarm installed; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water (water company); Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Shed(s); Chain link fencing; Paved road access; Shrubs; Subdivided lot; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Gas range; Exhaust fan
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Skylights; Satellite dish
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer hookups; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.8% in Avra Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#275 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roadrunner Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 374 students, 73% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 35% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $230k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,870 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.90%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,150
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -7.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16915 W Calle Amaya	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+1%)	11mo	$249,900	$200	82
17121 W Placita Rodrigo	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+4%)	21mo	$225,000	$176	67
16950 W Placita Dato	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+9%)	9mo	$257,000	$191	66
11965 N Carbine Rd	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,286 (+4%)	3mo	$295,000	$229	65
16840 W Calle Amaya	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-6%)	14mo	$240,000	$208	65
16901 W Branch Water Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,232 (0%)	4mo	$250,000	$203	64
11525 N Paseo Alejandro	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-14%)	6mo	$252,000	$239	62
11640 N Placita Marcela	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+9%)	14mo	$202,000	$150	54
12055 N Musket Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-9%)	4mo	$250,000	$223	52
11260 N Derringer Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+9%)	20mo	$265,000	$197	50
17115 W Blanco Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,232 (0%)	23mo	$220,000	$179	47
12118 N Musket Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-14%)	4mo	$216,000	$203	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-23,162
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $162
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85653

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $820/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,734

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $339	-5% $274	+0% $209	+5% $144	+10% $79
Rent	-10% $51	-5% $130	+0% $209	+5% $288	+10% $367
Rate	-1.0pp $325	-0.5pp $268	base $209	+0.5pp $150	+1.0pp $89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16075 W El Tiro Rd Marana, AZ	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	2d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $229,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $235,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $235,000 Active 1171-char remark
18. 2018-01-04
    soldstatus $95,000
19. 2017-03-21
    soldstatus $17,500 Closed 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    An incredible opportunity waits for anyone interested in getting away from the city. This is a 3 bedroom / 2 bathroom slice of heaven, waiting for someone to put their personal stamp on it. Make this house your home and have an acre to play around in. Run, don't walk. Don't let this on slip through your fingers. Online auction begins 02/04/17 and ends 02/08/17.

20. 2017-03-09
    status Pending 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    An incredible opportunity waits for anyone interested in getting away from the city. This is a 3 bedroom / 2 bathroom slice of heaven, waiting for someone to put their personal stamp on it. Make this house your home and have an acre to play around in. Run, don't walk. Don't let this on slip through your fingers. Online auction begins 02/04/17 and ends 02/08/17.

21. 2017-01-14
    listed $42,000 Active 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    An incredible opportunity waits for anyone interested in getting away from the city. This is a 3 bedroom / 2 bathroom slice of heaven, waiting for someone to put their personal stamp on it. Make this house your home and have an acre to play around in. Run, don't walk. Don't let this on slip through your fingers. Online auction begins 02/04/17 and ends 02/08/17.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $820 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,517 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$698/yr (+$58/mo · 85.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,984
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$820
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$1,388
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$333
• After-tax cash flow: $2,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Avra Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #23869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avra Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,574
• Household income: $86,154
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.29%
• Current HPI: 249.3403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+447.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $229,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-15 Listed $235,000 MLSSAZ
• 2018-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2017-03-21 Sold (MLS) $17,500 MLSSAZ
• 2017-03-09 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2017-01-14 Listed $42,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $820 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.