1100 Kilbirnie Rd · Big Lake, MN 55309

$309,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,910 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2000 10,018 sqft lot Est $562k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your home for the holidays! Welcome to this updated split level within walking distance to Lake Mitchell and Big Lake! Enter to a spacious two-story foyer and head up to the main level featuring bright windows, vaulted ceilings, plus new flooring and lighting. The living room leads into the kitchen and dining room to make hosting a breeze. The kitchen is complete with stainless steel appliances and a peninsula for additional storage and prep space as well as breakfast bar seating. Step out to the deck and spend quiet mornings sipping coffee or grilling dinner in the evenings. Two of the four bedrooms, both with walk-in closets and the full bathroom complete this level. Downstairs, the spacious family room includes an amusement area and walks out to the fenced-in back yard. Enjoy the convenient location near parks and trails around the lakes, and just minutes to a variety of shops and restaurants.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Oak cabinetry
• Walkout lower level

Tags

• FENCED LOT
• OAK CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE DECK
• WALKOUT LOWER LEVEL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional financing available; Other annual assessment amount listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage (22 x 30, 7' garage door height, 16' garage door width)
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas; Electric service with circuit breakers, 100 amp
• Home design: Residential split-entry (bi-level) home; Facing direction not specified; Entry level details not specified
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less); Block foundation (foundation area 960)
• Exterior features: Deck; Stone and vinyl exterior; Chain link fencing; Medium tree coverage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (three on main level and lower-level bedroom) — includes Bedroom 2 and Bedroom 3 on lower level and bedrooms on main
• Bathrooms: Main floor full bathroom; Basement three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full basement with walkout and sump pump; Informal dining area combined with kitchen; Water softener (owned); Stainless steel appliances
• Laundry & utility: Main/lower level laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-941/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Big Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#84 in MN, #1,950 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Big Lake Public School District (town): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #78 of 301 in MN (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Independence Elementary (math 53% / reading 57%, grade C, #310 of 857 statewide, top 37%, 660 students, 40% FRL); Big Lake Middle School (math 43% / reading 52%, grade C-, #93 of 258 statewide, top 37%, 686 students, 40% FRL); Big Lake Senior High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #111 of 471 statewide, top 26%, 899 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 19% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 334 units permitted in Sherburne County in 2024 (58 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $226k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $265,510 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $561,540
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1491 Hiawatha Ave	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,100 (+10%)	0mo	$618,000	$294	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-55,150
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-54,206
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55309

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,655 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$422 /mo · $5,060/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,754

Max offer price $296,048

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $9	+0% $-78	+5% $-166	+10% $-254
Rent	-10% $-288	-5% $-183	+0% $-78	+5% $26	+10% $131
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $0	base $-78	+0.5pp $-159	+1.0pp $-240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5535 Highland Trl Big Lake, MN	4.0	1.5	1904	$2,619	$1.38	0d	1	0.28mi
21476 Lena Trl Big Lake, MN	5.0	2.5	2150	$2,600	$1.21	12d	1	0.58mi
5726 Egret Ave Big Lake, MN	4.0	2.0	1894	$2,600	$1.37	0d	1	0.81mi
4702 Blanding Ct Big Lake, MN	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,500	$1.41	12d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $309,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $309,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   remarks 662-char remark
4. 2026-06-19
   listed $309,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,060 · $422/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,060 · $422/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$5,060
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,549
• − Management: −$2,549
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$6,221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,493
• After-tax cash flow: $552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Lake Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2705460
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $75,817
• Composite: 46.06/100
• National rank: #2519
• State rank: #78 of 301 in MN

Livability — Big Lake

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #1950

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Lake, MN
• County: Sherburne County · 120,363 people
• City population: 21,378
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 21,378
• Household income: $121,711
• Rent vs Own: 9.4% rent · 90.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Sherburne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,402 people
• By 2030: 99,341 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 101,188 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 99,214 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 88,700 · -8.9%
• By 2100: 72,241 · -25.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 6% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sherburne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.7% · R 66.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+32.6 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+22.1 2008: R+18.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.02%
• Current HPI: 238.8781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+148.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $309,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $226,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-30 Sold (MLS) $226,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-01 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-26 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-19 Listed $225,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-25 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-25 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-15 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-13 Listed $220,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $198,000 Public Records
• 2017-05-19 Sold (MLS) $198,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-02 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-30 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-16 Listed $198,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-05-31 Sold (MLS) $131,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-05-05 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-03-23 Listed $124,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,060 · +38.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.