2534 County Road 676 · Dayton, TX 77535

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2011 1.89 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover peaceful country living on 1.8+ secluded acres at the end of County Road 646. This property features a well-kept 2011 manufactured home offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, complete with an aerobic septic system and private water well for self-sufficient living. With no through traffic, this tucked-away location offers the perfect blend of privacy and comfort while still keeping you within reach of nearby amenities. Enjoy wildlife in your front yard!

Key facts

• Tucked-away location
• Secluded acres
• Private water well

Tags

• SECLUDED ACRES
• AEROBIC SEPTIC SYSTEM
• PRIVATE WATER WELL
• TUCKED-AWAY LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Residential mobile home
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Lot approximately 1.894 acres

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1209 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $149,607 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.44%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-20,774
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-10,437
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1209
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,496 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,849/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,377

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-02-16
    historical
15. 2025-10-17
    price $165,000
16. 2025-10-17
    price $165,000
17. 2025-08-29
    listed $180,000 Active
18. 2025-08-26
    listed $180,000 Active
19. 2025-08-22
    listed $165,000 Active
20. 2018-11-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,849 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,170/yr (+$98/mo · 63.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,849
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,436
• − Management: −$1,436
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,636
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$393
• After-tax cash flow: $1,518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816410
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,293
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6287
• State rank: #512 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $165,000 BBOR
• 2025-08-29 Listed $180,000 BBOR
• 2025-08-26 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $165,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2018-11-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,849 · +14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.