Champion 94 Duck River Estates Plan · Columbia, TN 38401

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 155 Days on market

Manufactured home Good condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -2.1

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with beautiful views overlooking the Duck River. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, comfortable living spaces, and an included 8x10 storage shed—perfect for extra storage. Call the office to schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Duck river
• Listed 155 days

Tags

• DUCK RIVER
• INCLUDED STORAGE SHED

🏗️ New construction. The $189,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $299,900.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-903 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#207 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Maury County (town): math 19% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #108 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Riverside Elementary (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #786 of 952 statewide, top 84%, 429 students, 0% FRL); E. A. Cox Middle School (math 6% / reading 7%, grade F, #284 of 333 statewide, top 86%, 656 students, 0% FRL); Columbia Central High School (math 7% / reading 27%, grade F, #225 of 332 statewide, top 69%, 1,474 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 1327 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,650 units permitted in Maury County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maury County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,075 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.11%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 16.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,900
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -36.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1801 Goldsberry St	1.27mi	3/2.5	1,511 (-4%)	2mo	$278,000	$184	55
1825 Goldsberry St	1.30mi	3/2.5	1,549 (-1%)	7mo	$255,000	$165	55
1335 Danbury Dr #62	1.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,628 (+4%)	4mo	$337,500	$207	50
614 Nightengale Ridge Dr	1.07mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+11%)	2mo	$385,000	$221	45
1302 Crofton Park Ct	1.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (+9%)	1mo	$346,000	$202	44
1768 Rockwell Lndg	1.38mi	3/2.0	1,720 (+10%)	8mo	$428,990	$249	42
569 Nightengale Ridge Dr	1.32mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+11%)	6mo	$389,990	$224	42
407 Oakview Dr	1.19mi	3/3.0	1,740 (+11%)	4mo	$299,900	$172	39
613 Nightengale Ridge Dr	1.08mi	3/2.5	1,813 (+16%)	1mo	$401,190	$221	37
105 Tommy Dr	1.38mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-20%)	3mo	$295,000	$234	37
402 Winding Way	1.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,775 (+13%)	1mo	$350,000	$197	37
1552 Oak Springs Dr	1.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,930 (+23%)	7mo	$389,990	$202	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-102,935
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.79×
• Total profit: $-150,090
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active
• Median asking: $171,500 ($106/sqft)
• Median days on market: 144 d
• This list price: 72% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +80.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 38401

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 1327
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,551 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,498/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $670/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-903

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,694

Max offer price $169,194

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-696	-5% $-800	+0% $-903	+5% $-1,007	+10% $-1,111
Rent	-10% $-1,026	-5% $-965	+0% $-903	+5% $-842	+10% $-781
Rate	-1.0pp $-752	-0.5pp $-827	base $-903	+0.5pp $-981	+1.0pp $-1,060

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
552 Nightengale Ridge Dr , TN	3.0	2.5	2163	$2,600	$1.20	41d	1	1.27mi
1827 Goldsberry St Columbia, TN	3.0	2.5	1503	$1,795	$1.19	65d	1	1.28mi
1023 Chickasaw Trl Columbia, TN	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,475	$1.39	17d	1	1.33mi
1422 Club House Dr Columbia, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$1,877	$1.81	11d	20	1.40mi
213 Granada Dr Columbia, TN	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,225	$1.09	47d	1	1.40mi
721 Poplar St Unit A Columbia, TN	4.0	2.5	1491	$2,500	$1.68	93d	1	1.44mi
721 Poplar St Unit B Columbia, TN	4.0	2.5	1491	$2,500	$1.68	52d	1	1.44mi
206 Greenview Dr Columbia, TN	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	17d	1	1.47mi
1022 Hillcrest Ave Unit 1 Columbia, TN	2.0	1.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	35d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-07-26
   days on market $189,900 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-07-24
   days on market $189,900 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-07-23
   days on market $189,900 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-07-22
   days on market $189,900 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-07-21
   days on market $189,900 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-07-20
   days on market $189,900 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-07-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-07-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-07-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-07-15
    days on market $189,900 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-07-14
    days on market $189,900 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-07-13
    days on market $189,900 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-07-13
    days on market $189,900 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-07-11
    days on market $189,900 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-07-10
    days on market $189,900 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-07-09
    days on market $189,900 Active 138 DOM
17. 2026-07-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 136 DOM
18. 2026-07-06
    days on market $189,900 Active 135 DOM
19. 2026-07-06
    days on market $189,900 Active 134 DOM
20. 2026-07-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 132 DOM
21. 2026-07-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 131 DOM
22. 2026-07-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 130 DOM
23. 2026-06-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 129 DOM
24. 2026-06-29
    days on market $189,900 Active 128 DOM
25. 2026-06-28
    days on market $189,900 Active 127 DOM
26. 2026-06-27
    days on market $189,900 Active 126 DOM
27. 2026-06-27
    days on market $189,900 Active 125 DOM
28. 2026-06-25
    days on market $189,900 Active 123 DOM
29. 2026-06-22
    days on market $189,900 Active 121 DOM
30. 2026-06-21
    days on market $189,900 Active 120 DOM
31. 2026-06-18
    days on market $189,900 Active 117 DOM
32. 2026-06-17
    days on market $189,900 Active 116 DOM
33. 2026-06-16
    days on market $189,900 Active 115 DOM
34. 2026-06-15
    days on market $189,900 Active 114 DOM
35. 2026-06-13
    days on market $189,900 Active 112 DOM
36. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $189,900 Active 111 DOM
37. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,900 Active 108 DOM
38. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 107 DOM
39. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 106 DOM
40. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 102 DOM
41. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 101 DOM
42. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 100 DOM
43. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 99 DOM
44. 2026-02-26
    price $199,900 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with beautiful views overlooking the Duck River. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, comfortable living spaces, and an included 8x10 storage shed—perfect for extra storage. Call the office to schedule your tour today!

45. 2026-02-21
    listed $209,900 Active 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with beautiful views overlooking the Duck River. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, comfortable living spaces, and an included 8x10 storage shed—perfect for extra storage. Call the office to schedule your tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,498
• − Insurance: −$2,170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,489
• − Management: −$1,489
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$16,560
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,974
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,865/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is move-in ready with modern finishes and a peaceful setting. It offers a good condition score and minimal repairs, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both storage shed — provides extra storage and enhances functionality ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 13/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Riverside Elementary F TN #786/952 Nat'l #38,100/41,679 Middle Whitthorne Middle School F TN #257/333 Nat'l #13,307/14,009 High Columbia Central High School F TN #225/332 Nat'l #15,029/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maury County
• NCES district ID: 4702760
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,668
• Composite: 17.69/100
• National rank: #9024
• State rank: #108 of 139 in TN

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #16090

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, TN
• County: Maury County · 102,894 people
• City population: 67,482
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 67,482
• Household income: $68,475
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Maury County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,894 people
• By 2030: 110,269 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 124,426 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 137,543 · +33.7%
• By 2075: 167,438 · +62.7%
• By 2100: 184,489 · +79.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maury

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.6) · D 27.1% · R 71.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -44.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.6 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.75%
• Current HPI: 343.0362
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $199,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-21 Listed $209,900 Zillow