12831 Eagle Lake Ave · Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$640,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,710 sqft · Land · 53 Days on market

Built 2026 4,725 sqft lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Moonstone plan offers two stories of thoughtful living space. A spacious kitchen provides a panoramic view across the main floor's elegant dining area and an expansive great room. A main-floor bedroom and bathroom and a storage area round out this level. Upstairs, a stunning primary suite offers a roomy walk-in closet and a private bath. A laundry, a loft and three secondary bedrooms can also be found on this floor. Professionally curated fixtures and finishes are included. Visit today!

Key facts

• Panoramic view
• Main-floor bedroom
• Private bath

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PANORAMIC VIEW
• MAIN-FLOOR BEDROOM
• STUNNING PRIMARY SUITE
• ROOMY WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $640k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $436k (31.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $356k (44.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $356k (44.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Cordova — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: commute C-, crime D, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary (math 65% / reading 67%, grade B+, #176 of 1,571 statewide, top 11%, 966 students, 21% FRL); Katherine L. Albiani Middle (math 55% / reading 67%, grade B+, #57 of 498 statewide, top 12%, 1,307 students, 27% FRL); Pleasant Grove High (math 57% / reading 74%, grade B, #157 of 1,170 statewide, top 14%, 2,520 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 43% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Elk Grove Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $68k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $64k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$110k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($621k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $356,066 (44.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.75%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $271,384
• Equity at exit: $576,563

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $850,297
• Equity at exit: $1,243,379

Cash invested: $179,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95742

• Home prices YoY: 28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,561 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,356
• Tax from tax record: −$347 /mo · $4,164/yr
• Insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$748
• Net cashflow: $-1,157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,025

Max offer price $435,621

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-795	-5% $-976	+0% $-1,157	+5% $-1,338	+10% $-1,519
Rent	-10% $-1,438	-5% $-1,298	+0% $-1,157	+5% $-1,016	+10% $-876
Rate	-1.0pp $-835	-0.5pp $-994	base $-1,157	+0.5pp $-1,323	+1.0pp $-1,491

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $160,000
• Closing costs: $19,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4328 Greenshank Cir Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.0	1800	$3,100	$1.72	45d	1	0.52mi
12855 Daylily Coast Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2745	$3,400	$1.24	14d	1	0.55mi
12647 Spotted Wren Way Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.0	2609	$3,450	$1.32	45d	1	0.55mi
12658 Rosefinch Way Unit 1 Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.5	2466	$2,800	$1.14	0d	1	0.67mi
4454 Greenshank Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,795	$1.47	0d	1	0.75mi
4480 Arctic Tern Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	2550	$3,000	$1.18	45d	1	0.85mi
3686 Rockdale Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.0	1880	$2,795	$1.49	9d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   The Moonstone plan offers two stories of thoughtful living space. A spacious kitchen provides a panoramic view across the main floor's elegant dining area and an expansive great room. A main-floor bedroom and bathroom and a storage area round out this level. Upstairs, a stunning primary suite offers a roomy walk-in closet and a private bath. A laundry, a loft and three secondary bedrooms can also be found on this floor. Professionally curated fixtures and finishes are included. Visit today!

2. 2026-04-30
   price $640,000 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   The Moonstone plan offers two stories of thoughtful living space. A spacious kitchen provides a panoramic view across the main floor's elegant dining area and an expansive great room. A main-floor bedroom and bathroom and a storage area round out this level. Upstairs, a stunning primary suite offers a roomy walk-in closet and a private bath. A laundry, a loft and three secondary bedrooms can also be found on this floor. Professionally curated fixtures and finishes are included. Visit today!

3. 2026-04-07
   price $646,875 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   The Moonstone plan offers two stories of thoughtful living space. A spacious kitchen provides a panoramic view across the main floor's elegant dining area and an expansive great room. A main-floor bedroom and bathroom and a storage area round out this level. Upstairs, a stunning primary suite offers a roomy walk-in closet and a private bath. A laundry, a loft and three secondary bedrooms can also be found on this floor. Professionally curated fixtures and finishes are included. Visit today!

4. 2026-03-31
   price $656,875 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   The Moonstone plan offers two stories of thoughtful living space. A spacious kitchen provides a panoramic view across the main floor's elegant dining area and an expansive great room. A main-floor bedroom and bathroom and a storage area round out this level. Upstairs, a stunning primary suite offers a roomy walk-in closet and a private bath. A laundry, a loft and three secondary bedrooms can also be found on this floor. Professionally curated fixtures and finishes are included. Visit today!

5. 2026-03-15
   listed $666,875 Active 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   The Moonstone plan offers two stories of thoughtful living space. A spacious kitchen provides a panoramic view across the main floor's elegant dining area and an expansive great room. A main-floor bedroom and bathroom and a storage area round out this level. Upstairs, a stunning primary suite offers a roomy walk-in closet and a private bath. A laundry, a loft and three secondary bedrooms can also be found on this floor. Professionally curated fixtures and finishes are included. Visit today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,164 · $347/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,864 · $405/mo
• Expected delta: +$700/yr (+$58/mo · 16.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,850
• − Property taxes: −$4,164
• − Insurance: −$3,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,418
• − Management: −$3,418
• − Depreciation: −$18,618
• Taxable loss: −$25,940
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,226
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,768
• Household income: $155,855
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.05%
• Current HPI: 236.1388
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — BAREIS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $640,000 BAREIS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $646,875 BAREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $656,875 BAREIS
• 2026-03-15 Listed $666,875 BAREIS