3115 South Ridge Dr · Rockwood, VA 23112

$289,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1989 Est $261k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE MORE THAN $60K BELOW ASSESSMENT. 3 Bedrm 1 Bath Rancher that needs TLC. Screened Front Porch, Side Deck, Detached Shed. House fenced-in. "As Is/Where Is" Sale. Inspections (including termite) for info only and at Buyer's expense. Bank Addendum attached for Review, actual Addendum will be issued upon acceptance of Offer.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Built-in seating
• Remodeled bathroom

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SIDE DECK
• BUILT-IN SEATING
• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking; Oversized paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single-story property; Resale condition
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding and drywall
• Exterior features: Front porch; Deck; Paved driveway; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: All-new kitchen with stainless steel appliances; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level with new carpet and fresh paint; One bedroom includes a walk-in closet
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; LVP flooring in family room; New carpet in bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Dining area; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Main-level primary
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.2% in Rockwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#86 in VA, #2,803 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 492 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $289k implies a 268% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,801 (2.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.35%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $261,120
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3013 Duck River Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	960 (0%)	0mo	$275,000	$286	91
12310 Duck River Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,020 (+6%)	4mo	$267,500	$262	78
3006 Shiloh Church Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,008 (+5%)	14mo	$300,000	$298	68
2901 S Ridge Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	8mo	$285,000	$270	61
12301 Beaver Point Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,048 (+9%)	2mo	$325,000	$310	58
12312 Beaver Hollow Ct	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+10%)	2mo	$285,000	$270	57
12301 Beaver Hollow Ct	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+10%)	8mo	$215,000	$204	54
12403 Beaver Falls Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,060 (+10%)	7mo	$325,000	$307	48
3000 Duck River Ct	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-15%)	23mo	$238,000	$292	44
2713 Brookforest Rd	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,104 (+15%)	11mo	$299,100	$271	44
12400 Beaver Falls Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,086 (+13%)	18mo	$295,000	$272	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-21,655
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $7,827
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23112

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 492
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,818 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,276

Max offer price $289,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $592	-5% $510	+0% $428	+5% $346	+10% $264
Rent	-10% $205	-5% $317	+0% $428	+5% $539	+10% $651
Rate	-1.0pp $573	-0.5pp $501	base $428	+0.5pp $353	+1.0pp $277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2350 Scenic Lake Dr Midlothian, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1255	$3,210	$2.56	2d	37	0.29mi
2801 Pavilion Pl Midlothian, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	924	$2,568	$2.78	2d	25	1.36mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $289,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-10
   listed $289,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,948 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,370 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$422/yr (+$35/mo · 21.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,705
• − Management: −$2,705
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable income: $417
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$100
• After-tax cash flow: $5,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Rockwood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #86
• US rank: #2803

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 57,016
• Household income: $116,465
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 897.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.87%
• Current HPI: 277.4841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+70.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $289,000 CVRMLS
• 2010-08-20 Sold (MLS) $78,500 CVRMLS
• 2010-08-15 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-08-03 Listed $79,500 CVRMLS
• 2010-08-01 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-03-18 Listed $99,900 CVRMLS
• 1989-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $55,125 Public Records
• 1985-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,948 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.