205 Xavier Dr · San Marcos, TX 78666

$209,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2004 5,314 sqft lot Est $257k · 18% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in Ready! Pride in Ownership, meticulously cared for 3 Bdrm 2.5 Bath 4 sided stucco home. Excellent insulation with low electric bills year round. Wrap around front porch. Open concept living/dining/kitchen. Master bedroom has wood floors and garden tub. Convenient upstairs utility room. Oversized covered back patio. 8x12 custom built storage shed. Sprinkler system. Recent 30 yr roof installation (2-3 yrs). Culdesac. Restrictions: Yes Sprinkler Sys:Yes

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Covered back patio
• Mature trees

Tags

• WRAPAROUND FRONT PORCH
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• STORAGE SHED
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• MATURE TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of homeowners association (El Camino Real HOA); HOA fee $250 annually covering common area maintenance; Community features include playground, park, sidewalks, trails/paths, and curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with single door (garage faces front); Total 4 parking spaces (1 covered)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story residence; Resale property; Faces east; Entry on slab foundation
• Construction: Masonry and stucco construction; Composition roof; Built as recorded in public records
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Porch; Outbuilding / Storage; Privacy wood fencing; Smoke detector(s); Cul-de-sac lot; Level lot; Manual sprinklers; Medium-size trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Free-standing range / Oven; Self-cleaning oven; Garbage disposal; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Interior steps; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-771/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (5.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1122 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,053/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 6504% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,656 (5.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.31%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 Encina Cv	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-3%)	3mo	$229,000	$154	76
203 Teron Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-3%)	9mo	$245,900	$165	70
808 Cardenas St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,644 (+8%)	1mo	$305,990	$186	70
109 Salas Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-2%)	6mo	$230,000	$153	70
301 Teron Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-3%)	10mo	$249,900	$168	67
507 Teron Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-3%)	9mo	$225,000	$151	66
214 Calixto Ct	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-11%)	10mo	$225,900	$166	66
168 Cazador Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-10%)	1mo	$238,900	$174	66
165 Cazador Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,397 (-9%)	8mo	$249,900	$179	64
136 Hazy View Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+5%)	4mo	$289,990	$180	63
208 Hazy View Rd	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,553 (+2%)	7mo	$324,990	$209	61
219 Capistrano Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-13%)	11mo	$205,000	$154	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-40,029
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-47,795
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1122
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,053 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$476 /mo · $5,713/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,134

Max offer price $198,656

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
284 Cordero Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	2004	$3,465	$1.73	10d	1	0.08mi
224 Capistrano Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1495	$2,150	$1.44	43d	1	0.11mi
101 Salas Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,700	$1.50	12d	1	0.24mi
210 Teron Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,709	$1.15	2d	1	0.30mi
417 Capistrano Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,850	$1.37	17d	1	0.34mi
409 Teron Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,775	$1.29	17d	1	0.36mi
3085 N State Highway 123 San Marcos, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	948	$1,352	$1.43	1d	15	0.45mi
834 Cottonwood Pkwy San Marcos, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	838	$1,829	$2.18	1d	53	0.51mi
261 Elk Ave San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1682	$1,925	$1.14	7d	1	0.94mi
326 Wild Plum San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1723	$1,850	$1.07	43d	1	0.99mi
1271 Sadler Dr San Marcos, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,511	$1.68	2d	20	1.07mi
213 Hoya Ln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	23d	1	1.12mi
821 Benning San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1790	$1,825	$1.02	17d	1	1.15mi
205 Tallow Trl San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.5	2146	$1,945	$0.91	2d	1	1.21mi
208 Picasso Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,650	$1.47	12d	1	1.22mi
1250 Sadler Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	1.0–4.0	923	$1,059	$1.15	17d	1	1.23mi
117 Linden Ln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	23d	1	1.23mi
224 Lake Gln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$1,825	$1.19	19d	1	1.23mi
190 Tallow Trl San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1647	$1,900	$1.15	17d	1	1.24mi
186 Tallow Trl San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,888	$1.29	17d	1	1.24mi
114 Cloverleaf St San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1420	$1,995	$1.40	43d	1	1.25mi
1441 Leah Ave San Marcos, TX	4.0	4.0	1500	$512	$0.34	7d	4	1.29mi
1350 Sadler Dr San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,478	$1.69	2d	10	1.30mi
131 Lake Gln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1839	$1,849	$1.01	43d	1	1.33mi
1301 Leah Ave San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$2,259	$2.22	4d	17	1.35mi
1811 Medical Pkwy San Marcos, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	849	$1,377	$1.62	2d	14	1.36mi
2380 Staples Rd San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$2,279	$2.16	1d	127	1.36mi
128 Shimmering Cv San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1544	$1,890	$1.22	43d	1	1.37mi
133 Whipporwill Ln San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.5	1831	$2,100	$1.15	1d	1	1.37mi
1001 Leah Ave San Marcos, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	861	$1,599	$1.86	3d	17	1.42mi
1041 Vervain Rd San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	943	$1,450	$1.54	1d	13	1.43mi
133 Lily Pond Trl San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1739	$1,795	$1.03	1d	1	1.48mi
153 Roanwood Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,825	$1.19	2d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,999 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,999 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,999 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,999 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,999 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,999 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,999 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,999 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $209,999 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,999 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,999 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,999 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,999 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,713 · $476/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,713 · $476/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$5,713
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,971
• − Management: −$1,971
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$4,196
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,007
• After-tax cash flow: $237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6504.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+28.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $209,999 Unlock MLS
• 2015-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-12-21 Sold (MLS) — CTXMLS
• 2015-12-21 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2015-11-13 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2015-11-13 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2015-11-07 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2015-10-29 Price Changed $159,900 Unlock MLS
• 2015-10-14 Price Changed $162,000 Unlock MLS
• 2015-10-08 Listed $159,900 CTXMLS
• 2015-10-08 Listed $163,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,713 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.