8227 Tiki Ln · Florin, CA 95828

$89,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 254 Days on market

Built 1979 Fair condition $124/sqft · 56% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Camellia Village Mobile Estates - a family-friendly community in Sacramento! Ideally located near Highway 99 and Florin Road, this neighborhood offers quick access to shopping, dining, and entertainment while nestled in a park-like setting. Community amenities include a remodeled clubhouse, sparkling swimming and wading pools, a basketball court, green spaces, laundry facility, and boat/RV storage. On-site management and 24-hour emergency maintenance provide convenience and peace of mind, while the Elk Grove Unified School District makes this a great choice for families. This home at 8227 Tiki Lane, Space #222 offers comfort and affordability with everything Camellia Village prov

Key facts

• Basketball court
• Green spaces
• Wading pools

Tags

• REMODELED CLUBHOUSE
• SPARKLING SWIMMING POOLS
• WADING POOLS
• BASKETBALL COURT
• GREEN SPACES
• LAUNDRY FACILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $978 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 3.6% in Florin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#673 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.11%
• DSCR: 3.10
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,113
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: 55.83%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7515 Debutante Ln #95	0.14mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	15mo	$64,000	$89	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $42,013
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.78×
• Total profit: $94,105
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95828

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,017 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $978

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,040	-5% $1,009	+0% $978	+5% $948	+10% $917
Rent	-10% $819	-5% $899	+0% $978	+5% $1,058	+10% $1,138
Rate	-1.0pp $1,023	-0.5pp $1,001	base $978	+0.5pp $955	+1.0pp $932

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7575 Power Inn Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	729	$1,950	$2.67	3d	5	0.46mi
7337 Power Inn Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	663	$1,775	$2.68	24d	3	0.57mi
8550 Florin Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	776	$1,795	$2.31	3d	16	0.92mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,000 Active 254 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 249 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 248 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 246 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 245 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 242 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 241 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 240 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,000 Active 237 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 236 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 235 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 234 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 233 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,936
• − Management: −$1,936
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $10,977
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,635
• After-tax cash flow: $9,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant repairs and updates to its exterior, interior, and appliances to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major flooring — Worn carpet, visible wear
• Major interior walls/paint — Worn paint, visible wear
• Major kitchen appliances — Outdated and cluttered
• Major bathroom fixtures — Outdated and cluttered

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating interior walls — Fresh paint can improve both resale and rental value
• Both New flooring — New flooring can improve both resale and rental value
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Upgraded appliances can improve both resale and rental value
• Both Updating bathroom fixtures — Updated fixtures can improve both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn carpet, visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Worn paint, visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen appliances · Outdated and cluttered	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · Outdated and cluttered	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating interior walls — Fresh paint can improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both New flooring — New flooring can improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Upgraded appliances can improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Updating bathroom fixtures — Updated fixtures can improve both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Florin

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #673
• US rank: #20705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florin, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,686
• Household income: $81,778
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1765.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 37% Hispanic / Latino 26% White 16% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 13% Vietnamese 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.49%
• Current HPI: 962.47
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.24%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B