19211 Lazy Valley Dr · Houston, TX 77449

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,345 sqft · Townhouse public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1980 5,502 sqft lot $156/sqft · 9% above area Est $193k · 9% over $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming single-story townhome in Katy, TX located in the desirable Silvermill community on a quiet cul-de-sac. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,527 sq. ft. of comfortable living space—ideal for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors seeking rental income. Features a spacious living area with tile floors and a cozy wood-burning fireplace. The open kitchen and dining combo provides functional flow for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy a large private backyard with patio deck, perfect for relaxing or outdoor gatherings. Move-in ready with no carpet, central A/C, and appliances included for easy maintenance. Zoned to highly rated Katy ISD with convenient access to Fry Rd,

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Spacious living area
• $35 HOA

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY TOWNHOME
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• OPEN KITCHEN AND DINING
• LARGE PRIVATE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Member of Silvermill HOA; Annual association fee of $420 (includes trash)

Exterior

• Parking: No dedicated parking listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story residential home; Entry level on slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 1980; Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: North-facing; Lot approximately 5,502 square feet

Interior

• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen and dining area combined; One fireplace; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($149/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jack & Sharon Rhoads El (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 796 students, 79% FRL); Cardiff J H (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 863 students, 84% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 27% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,686 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.61%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,553
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: 9.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19214 Lazy Valley Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,345 (0%)	7mo	$170,000	$126	93
19411 Lazy Valley Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,345 (0%)	10mo	$202,500	$151	83
3335 Deermoss Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+3%)	4mo	$189,900	$137	81
19427 Plantain Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,394 (+4%)	3mo	$170,000	$122	76
3351 Deermoss Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,393 (+4%)	10mo	$190,000	$136	70
19519 Woodglen Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,394 (+4%)	8mo	$165,000	$118	69
19323 Hollowlog Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+14%)	1mo	$199,900	$130	68
3306 Purslane Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	22mo	$216,000	$154	65
19531 Lazy Valley Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+4%)	10mo	$198,900	$142	64
19307 Plantain Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,505 (+12%)	16mo	$218,000	$145	63
3347 Silverside Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+4%)	17mo	$185,000	$132	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-23,351
• Equity at exit: $47,975

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-27,112
• Equity at exit: $48,098

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,007 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,393/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,991

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $72	+0% $12	+5% $-47	+10% $-106
Rent	-10% $-146	-5% $-67	+0% $12	+5% $92	+10% $171
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $66	base $12	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19434 Brook Village Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1822	$1,950	$1.07	45d	1	0.31mi
19407 Dawn Canyon Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,716	$1.09	45d	1	0.43mi
19138 Morton Rd Unit TOBC2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,745	$1.60	4d	1	0.45mi
19403 Misty Cove Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1714	$1,999	$1.17	7d	1	0.48mi
2606 Olster Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,571	$1.03	7d	1	0.64mi
2607 Cypressvine Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$2,000	$1.31	21d	1	0.69mi
2622 Broomsedge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$1,050	$0.60	7d	1	0.75mi
20098 Morton Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,276	$1.42	45d	1	0.87mi
2411 Shady Brook Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1715	$1,841	$1.07	0d	1	0.88mi
18407 Early Green Trl Unit 1316402P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$3,988	$2.57	4d	1	0.98mi
2931 Barker Cypress Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$1,796	$1.69	3d	20	1.03mi
19638 Southaven Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,769	$1.05	18d	1	1.04mi
20102 Twilight Canyon Rd Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	1633	$3,395	$2.08	4d	1	1.13mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,639	$1.36	7d	1	1.13mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2533 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,094	$1.45	45d	1	1.13mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2537 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,714	$1.42	45d	1	1.13mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,094	$1.45	0d	1	1.13mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,043	$1.42	0d	1	1.13mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,664	$1.38	0d	1	1.13mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,674	$1.39	12d	1	1.13mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,623	$1.35	0d	1	1.13mi
18747 Denise Dale Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,695	$1.49	7d	1	1.13mi
2937 Barker Cypress Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,456	$1.28	45d	1	1.15mi
2603 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,213	$2.32	0d	38	1.16mi
2411 Greenhouse Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$1,931	$1.74	0d	39	1.19mi
3450 Barker Cypress Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	826	$1,764	$2.14	0d	17	1.19mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,149	$1.51	0d	1	1.21mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,200	$1.54	12d	1	1.21mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,929	$1.54	0d	1	1.21mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,189	$1.54	12d	1	1.23mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,969	$1.58	12d	1	1.23mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 2228 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,970	$1.58	0d	1	1.23mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 2959 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,110	$1.48	45d	1	1.23mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 2963 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,820	$1.46	45d	1	1.23mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,745	$1.60	14d	1	1.24mi
2919 Amber Cliff Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,900	$1.25	45d	1	1.25mi
19319 Cypress Arbor Ct Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1794	$1,890	$1.05	0d	1	1.27mi
4211 Falcon Meadow Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,795	$1.25	26d	1	1.30mi
19930 Franz Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,439	$1.60	45d	1	1.32mi
2218 Greenhouse Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,236	$2.10	0d	25	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $210,000 Active 814-char remark
16. 2026-05-11
    historical
17. 2025-10-31
    price $210,000
18. 2025-10-21
    historical
19. 2025-10-20
    listed $220,000 Active
20. 2025-10-06
    historical
21. 2025-10-06
    price $220,000
22. 2025-10-06
    listed $220,000 Active
23. 2025-09-12
    listed $225,000 Active
24. 2022-02-25
    price $1,500
25. 2006-06-30
    historical
26. 2006-04-29
    listed $78,500
27. 2004-10-12
    soldstatus
28. 1998-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,393 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,843 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$450/yr (+$37/mo · 13.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,082
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,393
• − Insurance: −$1,847
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,927
• − Management: −$1,927
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,304
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$793
• After-tax cash flow: $942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+167.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2022-02-25 Price Changed $1,500 RENT.
• 2006-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-04-29 Listed $78,500 HARMLS
• 2004-10-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,393 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.