422 Robin St · Dunkirk, NY 14048

$82,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 228 Days on market

Built 1912 2,700 sqft lot Est $142k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Best deal on the market! This vintage two story 4 bedroom home has beautiful natural woodwork and hardwood floors, leaded windows, formal dining room, kitchen large enough for eat-in, room off the kitchen that would be perfect for add'l bath or 1st floor laundry, a large full walk up attic that could be finished into add'l room or offers plenty of storage, and a full basement with newer FHA furnace and circuit breakers. Home has a newer roof ( was a tear off with new sheeting), and a storage garage ( no driveway ). Home is neat and clean and move in ready. Exterior needs painting ( or siding) so home is being sold "as is" . Don't wait, this won't last long!

Key facts

• Natural woodwork
• Storage garage
• Dunkirk neighborhood

Tags

• DUNKIRK NEIGHBORHOOD
• LEADED WINDOWS
• NATURAL WOODWORK
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED FURNACE
• STORAGE GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 7.4% in Dunkirk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($573 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $72,952 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.50%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $141,504
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 Robin St	0.02mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,436 (-3%)	9mo	$137,800	$96	83
407 Dove St	0.07mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,382 (-6%)	5mo	$110,000	$80	78
606 Swan St	0.27mi	4/1.0	1,544 (+5%)	11mo	$135,000	$87	71
121 W Seventh St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,496 (+2%)	11mo	$190,000	$127	67
717 Roosevelt Ave	0.44mi	4/1.5	1,499 (+2%)	10mo	$171,000	$114	66
6 Taft Pl	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (+10%)	3mo	$160,000	$99	64
629 Deer St	0.60mi	4/1.0	1,488 (+1%)	8mo	$105,000	$71	64
53 W 5th St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,284 (-13%)	11mo	$100,000	$78	59
746 Park Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,505 (+2%)	8mo	$99,500	$66	51
222 Brigham Rd	0.32mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,287 (-13%)	10mo	$150,100	$117	51
740 Deer St	0.69mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,360 (-8%)	7mo	$162,000	$119	42
94 E 7th St	0.74mi	5/1.0 (+1)	1,582 (+7%)	11mo	$90,000	$57	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $41,616
• Equity at exit: $46,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.58×
• Total profit: $106,357
• Equity at exit: $80,191

Cash invested: $23,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14048

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,747/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $778

Max offer price $82,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $405	-5% $381	+0% $358	+5% $334	+10% $311
Rent	-10% $261	-5% $309	+0% $358	+5% $406	+10% $455
Rate	-1.0pp $400	-0.5pp $379	base $358	+0.5pp $336	+1.0pp $315

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,725
• Closing costs: $2,487
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-21
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-01
   price $82,900
4. 2026-01-07
   price $87,500
5. 2025-11-27
   price $89,500
6. 2025-11-16
   price $92,500
7. 2025-10-29
   price $94,500
8. 2025-10-14
   price $97,000
9. 2025-10-04
   status Active
10. 2025-10-04
    price $99,000
11. 2025-09-28
    status Pending
12. 2025-09-28
    historical Active Under Contract
13. 2025-09-11
    status Active
14. 2025-08-09
    listed $105,000 Active
15. 2024-08-15
    soldstatus $75,000
16. 2024-08-02
    soldstatus $75,000 Closed 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    Best deal on the market! This vintage two story 4 bedroom home has beautiful natural woodwork and hardwood floors, leaded windows, formal dining room, kitchen large enough for eat-in, room off the kitchen that would be perfect for add'l bath or 1st floor laundry, a large full walk up attic that could be finished into add'l room or offers plenty of storage, and a full basement with newer FHA furnace and circuit breakers. Home has a newer roof ( was a tear off with new sheeting), and a storage garage ( no driveway ). Home is neat and clean and move in ready. Exterior needs painting ( or siding) so home is being sold "as is" . Don't wait, this won't last long!

17. 2024-05-26
    status Pending 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    Best deal on the market! This vintage two story 4 bedroom home has beautiful natural woodwork and hardwood floors, leaded windows, formal dining room, kitchen large enough for eat-in, room off the kitchen that would be perfect for add'l bath or 1st floor laundry, a large full walk up attic that could be finished into add'l room or offers plenty of storage, and a full basement with newer FHA furnace and circuit breakers. Home has a newer roof ( was a tear off with new sheeting), and a storage garage ( no driveway ). Home is neat and clean and move in ready. Exterior needs painting ( or siding) so home is being sold "as is" . Don't wait, this won't last long!

18. 2024-05-15
    listed $68,500 Active 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    Best deal on the market! This vintage two story 4 bedroom home has beautiful natural woodwork and hardwood floors, leaded windows, formal dining room, kitchen large enough for eat-in, room off the kitchen that would be perfect for add'l bath or 1st floor laundry, a large full walk up attic that could be finished into add'l room or offers plenty of storage, and a full basement with newer FHA furnace and circuit breakers. Home has a newer roof ( was a tear off with new sheeting), and a storage garage ( no driveway ). Home is neat and clean and move in ready. Exterior needs painting ( or siding) so home is being sold "as is" . Don't wait, this won't last long!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,747 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,747 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,775
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,644
• − Property taxes: −$1,747
• − Insurance: −$414
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,182
• − Management: −$1,182
• − Depreciation: −$2,412
• Taxable income: $3,194
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$767
• After-tax cash flow: $3,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunkirk City School District
• NCES district ID: 3609420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,345
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7190
• State rank: #575 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dunkirk

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #7421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunkirk, NY
• City population: 14,949
• Population (ZIP): 14,949

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 325.9188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+21.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-21 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $82,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $87,500 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-27 Price Changed $89,500 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $92,500 UNYREIS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $94,500 UNYREIS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $97,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-10-04 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $99,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-09-28 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-28 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-11 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-09 Listed $105,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2024-08-02 Sold (MLS) $75,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-05-26 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2024-05-15 Listed $68,500 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,747 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.