51 SE 70th Cir · Silver Springs, FL 34472

$254,875

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 254 Days on market

Built 2020 0.50 ac lot $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Why settle for an aging house when you can have 2020 construction with all the modern bells and whistles? This sprawling 4-bedroom home in Lexington Estates offers over 2,280 sq. ft. of "like-new" living space designed for the modern buyer. The Interior: Forget what you know about manufactured homes. This residence features a chef-inspired kitchen with a massive center island, stunning engineered hardwood flooring, and a master suite with a spa-like soaking tub. The Community: Enjoy the peace of a quiet, well-cared-for neighborhood with fees under $20/month. The Land: A fully fenced half-acre lot gives you the freedom to park your boat or RV

Key facts

• Fenced half-acre lot
• Paved driveway
• Sidewalk

Tags

• FENCED HALF-ACRE LOT
• PUBLIC WATER
• PAVED STREETS
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• SIDEWALK
• ENGINEERED HARDWOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($297/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Silver Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ward-Highlands Elementary School (math 60% / reading 55%, grade C+, #764 of 2,144 statewide, top 36%, 959 students, 59% FRL); Vanguard High School (math 22% / reading 48%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 1,661 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 674 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $71k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,264 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.42%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $57,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7015 NE 3rd St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,978 (-13%)	8mo	$50,000	$25	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $68,117
• Equity at exit: $159,140

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $188,505
• Equity at exit: $287,660

Cash invested: $71,365 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34472

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,173 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,794/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,141

Max offer price $254,875

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,719
• Closing costs: $7,646
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 SE 68th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,850	$1.15	21d	1	0.24mi
6001 SE 4th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1865	$2,295	$1.23	13d	1	0.92mi
436 NE 61st Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	2170	$2,600	$1.20	21d	1	0.93mi
5725 SE 3rd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,550	$0.96	21d	1	1.10mi
113 Teak Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	3.0	2086	$2,150	$1.03	13d	1	1.12mi
5610 NE 7th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,800	$0.95	13d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $254,875
3. 2026-02-25
   price $259,875
4. 2026-02-17
   price $264,875
5. 2025-12-12
   price $269,875
6. 2025-11-21
   price $271,875
7. 2025-11-10
   status Active
8. 2025-09-30
   status Pending
9. 2025-09-06
   price $274,000
10. 2025-07-12
    price $279,000
11. 2025-06-20
    listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,794 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,794 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,277
• − Property taxes: −$2,794
• − Insurance: −$1,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,086
• − Management: −$2,086
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$7,415
• Taxable loss: −$4,052
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$972
• After-tax cash flow: $1,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,851
• Household income: $64,208
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 255.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-14.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $254,875 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $259,875 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $264,875 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $269,875 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $271,875 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $274,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $279,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-20 Listed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+30.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,794 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.