16179 Madrone · Cobb, CA 95426

$179,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 620 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

Built 1946 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the peaceful Pine Grove area of Cobb Mountain, this charming 1 bedroom, 1 bath cabin offers the perfect blend of cozy comfort and serene mountain living. Surrounded by towering pines and natural beauty, this inviting retreat captures everything people love about mountain life, fresh air, quiet surroundings, and a true connection to nature. Step inside to a warm and welcoming living space filled with natural light and cozy cabin charm. The thoughtfully designed layout makes excellent use of the space while maintaining a comfortable and inviting feel. A highly efficient wood burning stove provides incredible warmth during the colder months, while the propane Rinnai heater offers added comfort during chilly Cobb Mountain winters and snowy days. Outside, enjoy the peaceful setting Pine Grove is known for, whether it's sipping your morning coffee beneath the trees or relaxing under the stars in the evening. The Pine Grove community is loved for its close knit atmosphere and slower pace of life, making it an ideal escape from the hustle and bustle. Additional features include an on demand water heater, charming vintage style bathroom with claw foot tub, excellent storage space, workshop area, and durable vinyl flooring. Whether you're looking for a full time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity, this sweet mountain cabin offers a rare chance to own a little piece of Cobb Mountain charm.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1946
• Listed 82 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community offers horse trails, golf course access, rural setting, biking and hiking, mountainous terrain, nearby BLM/National Forest, park access, and hunting opportunities

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story (1 story); Entry at level 1
• Construction: Unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Cabin-style structure; Storage building and shed on property; No pool; Views present; Lot in 0–1 unit/acre range

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: Includes main level bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: One-level home; Main floor bedroom; All bedrooms located upstairs; Workshop; Living room; Primary bathroom; Has fireplace (wood-burning, family room)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area on-site

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.3% in Cobb — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#589 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Middletown Unified (rural): math 24% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #291 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $106 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $179k implies a 799% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.82%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $10,217
• Equity at exit: $46,387

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $53,035
• Equity at exit: $51,475

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95426

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,747 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $485/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,334

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 63 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (1431 chars)

    Nestled in the peaceful Pine Grove area of Cobb Mountain, this charming 1 bedroom, 1 bath cabin offers the perfect blend of cozy comfort and serene mountain living. Surrounded by towering pines and natural beauty, this inviting retreat captures everything people love about mountain life, fresh air, quiet surroundings, and a true connection to nature. Step inside to a warm and welcoming living space filled with natural light and cozy cabin charm. The thoughtfully designed layout makes excellent use of the space while maintaining a comfortable and inviting feel. A highly efficient wood burning stove provides incredible warmth during the colder months, while the propane Rinnai heater offers added comfort during chilly Cobb Mountain winters and snowy days. Outside, enjoy the peaceful setting Pine Grove is known for, whether it's sipping your morning coffee beneath the trees or relaxing under the stars in the evening. The Pine Grove community is loved for its close knit atmosphere and slower pace of life, making it an ideal escape from the hustle and bustle. Additional features include an on demand water heater, charming vintage style bathroom with claw foot tub, excellent storage space, workshop area, and durable vinyl flooring. Whether you're looking for a full time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity, this sweet mountain cabin offers a rare chance to own a little piece of Cobb Mountain charm.

19. 2026-05-20
    status Active 1431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1431 chars)

    Nestled in the peaceful Pine Grove area of Cobb Mountain, this charming 1 bedroom, 1 bath cabin offers the perfect blend of cozy comfort and serene mountain living. Surrounded by towering pines and natural beauty, this inviting retreat captures everything people love about mountain life, fresh air, quiet surroundings, and a true connection to nature. Step inside to a warm and welcoming living space filled with natural light and cozy cabin charm. The thoughtfully designed layout makes excellent use of the space while maintaining a comfortable and inviting feel. A highly efficient wood burning stove provides incredible warmth during the colder months, while the propane Rinnai heater offers added comfort during chilly Cobb Mountain winters and snowy days. Outside, enjoy the peaceful setting Pine Grove is known for, whether it's sipping your morning coffee beneath the trees or relaxing under the stars in the evening. The Pine Grove community is loved for its close knit atmosphere and slower pace of life, making it an ideal escape from the hustle and bustle. Additional features include an on demand water heater, charming vintage style bathroom with claw foot tub, excellent storage space, workshop area, and durable vinyl flooring. Whether you're looking for a full time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity, this sweet mountain cabin offers a rare chance to own a little piece of Cobb Mountain charm.

20. 2026-04-07
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (1431 chars)

    Nestled in the peaceful Pine Grove area of Cobb Mountain, this charming 1 bedroom, 1 bath cabin offers the perfect blend of cozy comfort and serene mountain living. Surrounded by towering pines and natural beauty, this inviting retreat captures everything people love about mountain life, fresh air, quiet surroundings, and a true connection to nature. Step inside to a warm and welcoming living space filled with natural light and cozy cabin charm. The thoughtfully designed layout makes excellent use of the space while maintaining a comfortable and inviting feel. A highly efficient wood burning stove provides incredible warmth during the colder months, while the propane Rinnai heater offers added comfort during chilly Cobb Mountain winters and snowy days. Outside, enjoy the peaceful setting Pine Grove is known for, whether it's sipping your morning coffee beneath the trees or relaxing under the stars in the evening. The Pine Grove community is loved for its close knit atmosphere and slower pace of life, making it an ideal escape from the hustle and bustle. Additional features include an on demand water heater, charming vintage style bathroom with claw foot tub, excellent storage space, workshop area, and durable vinyl flooring. Whether you're looking for a full time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity, this sweet mountain cabin offers a rare chance to own a little piece of Cobb Mountain charm.

21. 2026-04-07
    historical Contingent (Show) 1431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1431 chars)

    Nestled in the peaceful Pine Grove area of Cobb Mountain, this charming 1 bedroom, 1 bath cabin offers the perfect blend of cozy comfort and serene mountain living. Surrounded by towering pines and natural beauty, this inviting retreat captures everything people love about mountain life, fresh air, quiet surroundings, and a true connection to nature. Step inside to a warm and welcoming living space filled with natural light and cozy cabin charm. The thoughtfully designed layout makes excellent use of the space while maintaining a comfortable and inviting feel. A highly efficient wood burning stove provides incredible warmth during the colder months, while the propane Rinnai heater offers added comfort during chilly Cobb Mountain winters and snowy days. Outside, enjoy the peaceful setting Pine Grove is known for, whether it's sipping your morning coffee beneath the trees or relaxing under the stars in the evening. The Pine Grove community is loved for its close knit atmosphere and slower pace of life, making it an ideal escape from the hustle and bustle. Additional features include an on demand water heater, charming vintage style bathroom with claw foot tub, excellent storage space, workshop area, and durable vinyl flooring. Whether you're looking for a full time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity, this sweet mountain cabin offers a rare chance to own a little piece of Cobb Mountain charm.

22. 2026-03-28
    listed $179,000 Active
23. 2026-03-27
    listed $179,000 Active 1431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1431 chars)

    Nestled in the peaceful Pine Grove area of Cobb Mountain, this charming 1 bedroom, 1 bath cabin offers the perfect blend of cozy comfort and serene mountain living. Surrounded by towering pines and natural beauty, this inviting retreat captures everything people love about mountain life, fresh air, quiet surroundings, and a true connection to nature. Step inside to a warm and welcoming living space filled with natural light and cozy cabin charm. The thoughtfully designed layout makes excellent use of the space while maintaining a comfortable and inviting feel. A highly efficient wood burning stove provides incredible warmth during the colder months, while the propane Rinnai heater offers added comfort during chilly Cobb Mountain winters and snowy days. Outside, enjoy the peaceful setting Pine Grove is known for, whether it's sipping your morning coffee beneath the trees or relaxing under the stars in the evening. The Pine Grove community is loved for its close knit atmosphere and slower pace of life, making it an ideal escape from the hustle and bustle. Additional features include an on demand water heater, charming vintage style bathroom with claw foot tub, excellent storage space, workshop area, and durable vinyl flooring. Whether you're looking for a full time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity, this sweet mountain cabin offers a rare chance to own a little piece of Cobb Mountain charm.

24. 2026-03-27
    historical $179,000

    Show marketing remark (1431 chars)

    Nestled in the peaceful Pine Grove area of Cobb Mountain, this charming 1 bedroom, 1 bath cabin offers the perfect blend of cozy comfort and serene mountain living. Surrounded by towering pines and natural beauty, this inviting retreat captures everything people love about mountain life, fresh air, quiet surroundings, and a true connection to nature. Step inside to a warm and welcoming living space filled with natural light and cozy cabin charm. The thoughtfully designed layout makes excellent use of the space while maintaining a comfortable and inviting feel. A highly efficient wood burning stove provides incredible warmth during the colder months, while the propane Rinnai heater offers added comfort during chilly Cobb Mountain winters and snowy days. Outside, enjoy the peaceful setting Pine Grove is known for, whether it's sipping your morning coffee beneath the trees or relaxing under the stars in the evening. The Pine Grove community is loved for its close knit atmosphere and slower pace of life, making it an ideal escape from the hustle and bustle. Additional features include an on demand water heater, charming vintage style bathroom with claw foot tub, excellent storage space, workshop area, and durable vinyl flooring. Whether you're looking for a full time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity, this sweet mountain cabin offers a rare chance to own a little piece of Cobb Mountain charm.

25. 2011-05-02
    soldstatus $19,900 104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    WEEKEND GETAWAY. Fixer-upper Pine Grove cabin at an affordable price !!!. Location and Close To: Forest.

26. 2011-05-02
    soldstatus $19,900

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    WEEKEND GETAWAY. Fixer-upper Pine Grove cabin at an affordable price !!!. Location and Close To: Forest.

27. 2011-05-02
    soldstatus $20,000

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    WEEKEND GETAWAY. Fixer-upper Pine Grove cabin at an affordable price !!!. Location and Close To: Forest.

28. 2011-04-05
    historical
29. 2011-03-11
    listed $26,900
30. 2011-03-07
    listed $26,900 104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    WEEKEND GETAWAY. Fixer-upper Pine Grove cabin at an affordable price !!!. Location and Close To: Forest.

31. 2011-01-05
    listed $26,900
32. 2010-12-20
    historical
33. 2010-09-21
    listed $36,000
34. 2004-10-19
    soldstatus $115,000
35. 2004-10-19
    soldstatus $115,000
36. 2004-07-14
    listed $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,360 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$875/yr (+$73/mo · 180.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$485
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,677
• − Management: −$1,677
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $996
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$239
• After-tax cash flow: $3,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown Unified
• NCES district ID: 0624750
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,451
• Composite: 28.92/100
• National rank: #6632
• State rank: #291 of 517 in CA

Livability — Cobb

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #589
• US rank: #19147

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,265
• Population (ZIP): 1,265

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Pacific Islander 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Iranian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.63%
• Current HPI: 145.2378
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+32.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-05-20 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2026-04-07 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-04-07 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $179,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $179,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-27 Coming Soon $179,000 CRMLS
• 2011-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2011-05-02 Sold (MLS) $19,900 BAREIS
• 2011-05-02 Sold (MLS) $19,900 CRMLS
• 2011-04-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-03-11 Listed $26,900 BAREIS
• 2011-03-07 Listed $26,900 CRMLS
• 2011-01-05 Listed $26,900 CRMLS
• 2010-12-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2010-09-21 Listed $36,000 CRMLS
• 2004-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-19 Sold (MLS) $115,000 CRMLS
• 2004-07-14 Listed $135,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $485 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.