813 Birch St · Quarryville, PA 17560

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1998

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-maintained 1998 double-wide manufactured home in Sunset Estates offers 1,620 sq. ft. of single-level living space featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The interior layout includes a living area with a gas fireplace, a mix of carpet and vinyl flooring, and included appliances (refrigerator, electric range, dishwasher, and microwave). The exterior is finished with vinyl siding and includes a standalone storage shed. Parking features an asphalt driveway with 2 off-street spaces alongside additional on-street parking. Located in the Solanco School District. Lot rent is $600/month and includes basic cable and trash service twice a week.

Key facts

• Asphalt driveway
• Community pool
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• GAS FIREPLACE
• VINYL SIDING
• STANDALONE STORAGE SHED
• ASPHALT DRIVEWAY
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with number and size/weight restrictions
• Financial info: Fee simple ownership; Annual ground rent payment
• HOA & community: Located in Sunset Estate (park); Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Two off-street spaces; Asphalt driveway; On-street parking available; Two total garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling and hot water; Propane heating (metered)
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Vinyl siding; Frame construction; Estimated year built
• Construction: Composite/shingle roof; Shed structure
• Exterior features: Community pool; Shed; Ground rent exists (paid annually)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Built-in microwave; Electric range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane (metered) heating fuel; Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Gas/propane fireplace (one)
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $735 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 1.5% in Quarryville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#499 in PA, #4,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Solanco SD (rural): math 31% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #272 of 539 in PA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $90,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.01%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $32,229
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.50×
• Total profit: $88,316
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17560

• Home prices YoY: -15.0%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,646 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $672/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $735

Break-even live

Break-even rent $716

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $786	-5% $761	+0% $735	+5% $710	+10% $684
Rent	-10% $605	-5% $670	+0% $735	+5% $800	+10% $865
Rate	-1.0pp $780	-0.5pp $758	base $735	+0.5pp $712	+1.0pp $688

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 Groffdale Rd Quarryville, PA	3.0	1.5	1232	$1,600	$1.30	21d	1	0.74mi
405 Groffdale Rd Quarryville, PA	3.0	1.5	1176	$1,700	$1.45	14d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-14
   remarks 655-char remark
2. 2026-06-14
   status $90,000 Pending 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   remarks 623-char remark
4. 2026-06-13
   listed $90,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $672 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,047 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$375/yr (+$31/mo · 55.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$672
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,581
• − Management: −$1,581
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $7,814
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,875
• After-tax cash flow: $6,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Solanco SD
• NCES district ID: 4221810
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,326
• Composite: 38.41/100
• National rank: #4205
• State rank: #272 of 539 in PA

Livability — Quarryville

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #499
• US rank: #4587

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,452

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Polish 6% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · German/W. Germanic 12% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.65%
• Current HPI: 270.262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $672 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.