31 Johnson St · Buffalo, NY 14212

$190,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2005 7,700 sqft lot $164/sqft · 12% above area Est $169k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 31 Johnson St—an inviting 3-bedroom, 1-bath, fully fenced Ranch with solid bones, smart system updates, and room to make it your own. Big-ticket items are handled with an updated furnace, roof, and electrical service and hot water tank, for peace of mind. Sun-filled living areas offer flexible layouts, and the kitchen is comfortable with a stove and refrigerator, with clear potential for modernization. Generous bedrooms, a private rear yard, and the possibility of off-street parking add everyday convenience. Set in a convenient Buffalo location near parks, shopping, and quick highway access. Motivated seller and priced to reflect light cosmetic TLC. A well-cared-for Ranch y

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• Fully fenced
• Private rear yard

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• UPDATED FURNACE
• UPDATED ROOF
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL SERVICE
• HOT WATER TANK
• PRIVATE REAR YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story (1 story); Frame construction with vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation; Existing condition
• Construction: Built as existing structure; Frame with vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Fully fenced yard; Shed/storage structure; Rectangular residential lot near public transit; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms (all on the first/main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Linoleum; Vinyl; Various flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp; Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Air filtration; Bedroom on main level; Full basement with egress windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in the basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $715 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $190,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.13%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,031
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: 12.41%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Paderewski Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-7%)	17mo	$65,000	$60	67
598 High St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,139 (-2%)	7mo	$115,000	$101	65
23 Guilford St	0.25mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,322 (+14%)	1mo	$190,000	$144	57
323 Jefferson Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+6%)	5mo	$195,000	$160	53
513 High St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,270 (+10%)	7mo	$95,000	$75	52
553 William St	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,279 (+11%)	5mo	$231,750	$181	52
95 Peckham St	0.33mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,249 (+8%)	18mo	$150,000	$120	51
189 Reed St	0.47mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,261 (+9%)	10mo	$145,000	$115	50
255 Reed St	0.58mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,294 (+12%)	6mo	$125,000	$97	44
47 John Paul Ct Ct	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,274 (+10%)	4mo	$234,900	$184	42
511 William St	0.54mi	2/1.5 (-1)	990 (-14%)	2mo	$205,000	$207	42
70 Camp St	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,324 (+14%)	21mo	$245,000	$185	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $148,939
• Equity at exit: $171,167

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.57×
• Total profit: $402,631
• Equity at exit: $369,128

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14212

• Home prices YoY: 20.4%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,331 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $611/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $715

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,426

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
983 Michigan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	804	$3,202	$3.98	2d	58	0.92mi
140 Seymour St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	1.04mi
140 Seymour St Unit First Floor Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	3d	1	1.04mi
489 Ellicott St Unit 36 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	3d	1	1.10mi
1145 Michigan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	655	$2,049	$3.13	43d	1	1.12mi
628 Ellicott St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,812	$2.65	2d	5	1.14mi
17 N Pearl St Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1077	$2,700	$2.51	23d	1	1.25mi
17 N Pearl St Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1197	$3,100	$2.59	23d	1	1.25mi
519 Virginia St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	700	$1,700	$2.43	3d	3	1.27mi
44 N Pearl St #5 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	43d	1	1.28mi
465 Washington St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1388	$2,285	$1.65	2d	5	1.29mi
19 North St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1306	$2,910	$2.23	10d	7	1.33mi
40 North St Unit 306 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	1125	$1,950	$1.73	43d	1	1.34mi
1155 Main St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	592	$2,300	$3.88	43d	1	1.36mi
149 Swan St #404 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1237	$2,050	$1.66	11d	1	1.37mi
149 Swan St #404 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1237	$2,100	$1.70	23d	1	1.37mi
1152 Main St Apt 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	14d	1	1.38mi
506 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1190	$2,995	$2.52	10d	6	1.42mi
130 Linwood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $190,000 Active 718-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $611 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,911 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,300/yr (+$108/mo · 212.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,972
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$611
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,238
• − Management: −$2,238
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $5,765
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,384
• After-tax cash flow: $7,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• City population: 440,021
• Population (ZIP): 13,603

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Black 27% Asian 25% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Philippines, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Other Indo-European 18% Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 79.80%
• Current HPI: 471.6399
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $190,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $611 · +16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.