30158 Sunset Rd · Erie, MN 56501

$294,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2004 2.50 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect blend of country and convenience! Available is this 2.5 acre 1792 sq ft home with 3 bedrooms + office, 2 bathrooms, unattached 768 sq ft garage with in-floor heat, floor drain, insulated, w/ office and storage space above. A deck at each entry with the back deck providing a view of the beautiful, peaceful pond. Additionally, this property includes a quaint chicken coop in an ideal location on a dead-end road tarred to the driveway all within 6 miles from Detroit Lakes. This is a well cared for home, built in 2004, and is in immaculate condition. A new well was drilled in 2025, a new garage/storage/office built in 2023, a new septic system added in 2022, new furnace in

Key facts

• 2.5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Detroit Lakes Public School District (town): math 44% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #155 of 301 in MN (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 156 units permitted in Becker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Becker County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $279,220 (5.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.10%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-21,161
• Equity at exit: $43,971

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $15,544
• Equity at exit: $25,498

Cash invested: $82,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56501

• Active inventory: 301
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,792 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,400/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,261

Max offer price $294,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,725
• Closing costs: $8,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-18
   listed $294,900 Active
4. 2022-08-30
   soldstatus $239,900
5. 2019-02-02
   historical
6. 2014-09-09
   listed $317,000
7. 2014-09-01
   price $317,000
8. 2014-08-25
   listed $317,000
9. 2010-06-03
   soldstatus $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,400 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,351 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$951/yr (+$79/mo · 68.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,519
• − Property taxes: −$1,400
• − Insurance: −$1,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,681
• − Management: −$2,681
• − Depreciation: −$8,579
• Taxable income: $173
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$42
• After-tax cash flow: $4,996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Lakes Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2710230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $50,571
• Composite: 40.33/100
• National rank: #3746
• State rank: #155 of 301 in MN

Livability — Erie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,239

Population outlook (Becker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,604 people
• By 2030: 35,095 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 35,691 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 35,869 · +3.7%
• By 2075: 36,103 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 32,798 · -5.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 25% Scottish 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Becker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 32.7% · R 65.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.3pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+14.6 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.40%
• Current HPI: 217.4973
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+639.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Listed $294,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $239,900 Public Records
• 2019-02-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-09 Listed $317,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-01 Price Changed $317,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-25 Listed $317,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,400 · +37.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.