3936 Elmcrest Dr · Ferry Pass, FL 32504

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1979 8,067 sqft lot $212/sqft · at area comps Est $221k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location! Location Location! This charming 3/2 home located in the heart of NE Pensacola is convenient to everything! Move in ready! Freshly painted interior and exterior and new carpet just installed. 8 x 11 utility room not included in Square Footage. Don't wait, call today to see this home.

Key facts

• Open patio
• New flooring
• Fresh updates

Tags

• FRESH UPDATES
• NEW FLOORING
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATHROOM
• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM
• FENCED BACKYARD
• OPEN PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: County-maintained road access
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (covered) — 1 covered space, total 1 parking space
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breaker electrical service; Cable available
• Home design: Resale single-family home; One story; Frame construction
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Backyard fencing; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen; Laminate counters; Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on the first floor; Bedroom 1 approximately 10.2' x 9.6'; Bedroom 2 approximately 10.2' x 12.7'; Bedroom 3 approximately 13.9' x 12.2'
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Simulated wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (all on the first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Baseboards; Ceiling fans; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-238/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Ferry Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#664 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $220k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,864 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,939
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -0.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7415 Viewcrest Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,107 (+6%)	2mo	$240,000	$217	82
211 Wildflower Ln	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,031 (-1%)	3mo	$220,000	$213	82
117 Wildflower Ln	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	996 (-4%)	3mo	$187,900	$189	73
7545 Southpointe Pl	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,118 (+8%)	9mo	$220,000	$197	69
174 Wildflower Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,184 (+14%)	2mo	$180,000	$152	68
192 Wildflower Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,184 (+14%)	3mo	$183,400	$155	66
168 Wildflower Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,180 (+14%)	5mo	$175,750	$149	66
4145 Elmcrest Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+10%)	16mo	$193,000	$169	64
3751 Whispering Pines Dr	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,025 (-1%)	1mo	$228,900	$223	63
3645 Creighton Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,164 (+12%)	6mo	$210,000	$180	62
3270 Creighton Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,122 (+8%)	6mo	$210,000	$187	48
3760 Whispering Pines Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,107 (+6%)	10mo	$239,900	$217	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-35,808
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-28,220
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32504

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,779 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,155/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,804

Max offer price $216,501

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $42	+0% $-20	+5% $-82	+10% $-144
Rent	-10% $-160	-5% $-90	+0% $-20	+5% $50	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $91	-0.5pp $36	base $-20	+0.5pp $-77	+1.0pp $-135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4132 Baywoods Dr Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1346	$1,950	$1.45	24d	1	0.13mi
3730 Forest Glen Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,660	$1.50	24d	1	0.76mi
7601 N 9th Ave Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,467	$1.72	15d	7	0.84mi
7171 N 9th Ave Unit D6 Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$1,450	$1.20	15d	1	0.93mi
7155 N 9th Ave Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,575	$1.85	15d	4	1.00mi
8487 Old Spanish Trail Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.5	1364	$1,550	$1.14	24d	1	1.10mi
4051 E Olive Rd Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,425	$1.67	24d	37	1.10mi
8108 Ridgefield Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,000	$1.35	15d	1	1.28mi
2813 Langley Ave Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,450	$1.35	24d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $220,000 Active 1528-char remark
17. 2026-02-18
    historical
18. 2026-01-21
    historical Contingent
19. 2026-01-16
    listed $189,900 Active
20. 2018-09-10
    soldstatus $110,000

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Location! Location Location! This charming 3/2 home located in the heart of NE Pensacola is convenient to everything! Move in ready! Freshly painted interior and exterior and new carpet just installed. 8 x 11 utility room not included in Square Footage. Don't wait, call today to see this home.

21. 2018-09-10
    soldstatus $110,000

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Location! Location Location! This charming 3/2 home located in the heart of NE Pensacola is convenient to everything! Move in ready! Freshly painted interior and exterior and new carpet just installed. 8 x 11 utility room not included in Square Footage. Don't wait, call today to see this home.

22. 2018-08-03
    listed $109,000

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Location! Location Location! This charming 3/2 home located in the heart of NE Pensacola is convenient to everything! Move in ready! Freshly painted interior and exterior and new carpet just installed. 8 x 11 utility room not included in Square Footage. Don't wait, call today to see this home.

23. 2003-06-19
    soldstatus $85,800
24. 2002-10-10
    soldstatus $51,000
25. 1992-05-01
    soldstatus $48,900
26. 1987-08-01
    soldstatus $45,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,155 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,155 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,344
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,155
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,707
• − Management: −$1,707
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,049
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$972
• After-tax cash flow: $734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ferry Pass

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #664
• US rank: #13543

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferry Pass, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• City population: 43,072
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,153
• Household income: $72,672
• Rent vs Own: 37.4% rent · 62.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 533.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.75%
• Current HPI: 268.2214
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.63%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+387.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $220,000 PARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $189,900 PARMLS
• 2018-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-10 Sold (MLS) $110,000 PARMLS
• 2018-08-03 Listed $109,000 PARMLS
• 2003-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $85,800 Public Records
• 2002-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 1992-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,900 Public Records
• 1987-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,155 · +15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.