115 Old Hay Rd Unit 115 Old hay rd · Wallenpaupack Lake Estates, PA 18464

$309,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,302 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 1960 Good condition 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Turnkey Lake Life Awaits -- Fully Renovated Retreat Steps from Lake WallenpaupackYour lake escape is ready the moment you arrive. This charming 3-bedroom home sits in the heart of the Pocono Lakes region, just a short stroll from your dedicated boat slip and level picnic area on motorboating Lake Wallenpaupack -- one of Pennsylvania's premier lakes for boating, fishing, and waterfront fun. This furnished 3 plus bedroom 1 and half bath lake cottage is just what you need to get away from stresses of life. The home is situated with a stream in the back. Completely refreshed in 2024: New roof (2024) -- peace of mind from day oneNew flooring throughout (2024) -- fresh, modern feel underfootNew f

Key facts

• Exterior paint
• Deck
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• DECK
• EXTERIOR PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on Lake Wallenpaupack frontage/view; Lot is sloped to gently sloping; Private, unimproved road with road maintenance agreement; Lot size approximately 0.26 acre; Zoned residential; Subdivision: Simons Point

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: 100 amp electric service; Electricity connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Cabin / Single-family house; One level
• Construction: Built as a cabin-style residence
• Exterior features: Boat slip; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling with wall units
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on the main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $309k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.5% in Wallenpaupack Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#896 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $283,164 (8.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.41%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $14,914
• Equity at exit: $108,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $82,770
• Equity at exit: $146,076

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18464

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,832 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,635/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,703

Max offer price $309,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $315	-5% $208	+0% $102	+5% $-5	+10% $-112
Rent	-10% $-122	-5% $-10	+0% $102	+5% $213	+10% $325
Rate	-1.0pp $257	-0.5pp $180	base $102	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $309,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $309,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $329,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $329,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $329,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$4,635
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,718
• − Management: −$2,718
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$3,935
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$944
• After-tax cash flow: $2,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully renovated lakefront home offers a turnkey retreat with a new roof and flooring, ready for immediate enjoyment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers/renters
• Both Interior updates — Freshens the interior and can appeal to a broader range of buyers/renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers/renters ↑
• Both Interior updates — Freshens the interior and can appeal to a broader range of buyers/renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Wallenpaupack Lake Estates

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #9541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,455

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.17%
• Current HPI: 240.5805
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $329,000 PWMLS