3944 Lone Rd · Shields, MI 48623

$160,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,588 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1978 0.54 ac lot $101/sqft · 29% below area Est $224k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unlock the potential in this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath two-story home situated on a spacious 0.54-acre lot in Freeland. Whether you're an investor or a homeowner ready to create your dream space, this property offers a true clean slate for renovations and your vision. Major updates have already begun with a new furnace installed, and the basement has been completely cleaned out, making it ready for finishing or additional living space. The home does need a hot water heater and cosmetic updates, giving you the opportunity to customize every detail to your taste. Step outside to enjoy a large, fenced-in backyard, perfect for pets, entertaining, or future landscaping projects. A standout feature is the impressive 39' x 23' garage/workshop, ideal for hobbies, storage, or small business use. Inside, a fireplace adds charm and the potential for cozy nights once renovations are complete.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Cleaned out basement
• Spacious lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• CLEAN SLATE FOR RENOVATIONS
• NEW FURNACE
• CLEANED OUT BASEMENT
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• IMPRESSIVE GARAGE/WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $535 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.5% in Shields — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#59 in MI, #1,310 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hemlock Public School District (rural): math 33% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #198 of 540 in MI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $157,600 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.32%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,499
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -28.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3944 Lone Rd	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,588 (0%)	0mo	$150,000	$94	100
4325 Lone Rd	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,668 (+5%)	13mo	$365,000	$219	61
3780 N Thomas Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+2%)	19mo	$210,000	$130	55
4172 Meadowbrook Dr	0.47mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,532 (-4%)	15mo	$199,900	$130	54
4460 Meadowbrook Ln	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,644 (+4%)	11mo	$247,000	$150	51
9760 Dice Rd	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,402 (-12%)	18mo	$449,000	$320	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,086
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $50,715
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48623

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,926 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $969/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $535

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,249

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $625	-5% $580	+0% $535	+5% $489	+10% $444
Rent	-10% $383	-5% $459	+0% $535	+5% $611	+10% $687
Rate	-1.0pp $615	-0.5pp $575	base $535	+0.5pp $493	+1.0pp $451

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 887-char remark

   Show marketing remark (887 chars)

   Unlock the potential in this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath two-story home situated on a spacious 0.54-acre lot in Freeland. Whether you're an investor or a homeowner ready to create your dream space, this property offers a true clean slate for renovations and your vision. Major updates have already begun with a new furnace installed, and the basement has been completely cleaned out, making it ready for finishing or additional living space. The home does need a hot water heater and cosmetic updates, giving you the opportunity to customize every detail to your taste. Step outside to enjoy a large, fenced-in backyard, perfect for pets, entertaining, or future landscaping projects. A standout feature is the impressive 39' x 23' garage/workshop, ideal for hobbies, storage, or small business use. Inside, a fireplace adds charm and the potential for cozy nights once renovations are complete.

2. 2026-04-28
   status Back on Market 887-char remark

   Show marketing remark (887 chars)

   Unlock the potential in this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath two-story home situated on a spacious 0.54-acre lot in Freeland. Whether you're an investor or a homeowner ready to create your dream space, this property offers a true clean slate for renovations and your vision. Major updates have already begun with a new furnace installed, and the basement has been completely cleaned out, making it ready for finishing or additional living space. The home does need a hot water heater and cosmetic updates, giving you the opportunity to customize every detail to your taste. Step outside to enjoy a large, fenced-in backyard, perfect for pets, entertaining, or future landscaping projects. A standout feature is the impressive 39' x 23' garage/workshop, ideal for hobbies, storage, or small business use. Inside, a fireplace adds charm and the potential for cozy nights once renovations are complete.

3. 2026-04-17
   status Pending 887-char remark

   Show marketing remark (887 chars)

   Unlock the potential in this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath two-story home situated on a spacious 0.54-acre lot in Freeland. Whether you're an investor or a homeowner ready to create your dream space, this property offers a true clean slate for renovations and your vision. Major updates have already begun with a new furnace installed, and the basement has been completely cleaned out, making it ready for finishing or additional living space. The home does need a hot water heater and cosmetic updates, giving you the opportunity to customize every detail to your taste. Step outside to enjoy a large, fenced-in backyard, perfect for pets, entertaining, or future landscaping projects. A standout feature is the impressive 39' x 23' garage/workshop, ideal for hobbies, storage, or small business use. Inside, a fireplace adds charm and the potential for cozy nights once renovations are complete.

4. 2026-04-10
   listed $160,000 Active 887-char remark

   Show marketing remark (887 chars)

   Unlock the potential in this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath two-story home situated on a spacious 0.54-acre lot in Freeland. Whether you're an investor or a homeowner ready to create your dream space, this property offers a true clean slate for renovations and your vision. Major updates have already begun with a new furnace installed, and the basement has been completely cleaned out, making it ready for finishing or additional living space. The home does need a hot water heater and cosmetic updates, giving you the opportunity to customize every detail to your taste. Step outside to enjoy a large, fenced-in backyard, perfect for pets, entertaining, or future landscaping projects. A standout feature is the impressive 39' x 23' garage/workshop, ideal for hobbies, storage, or small business use. Inside, a fireplace adds charm and the potential for cozy nights once renovations are complete.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,717 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$747/yr (+$62/mo · 77.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$969
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,849
• − Management: −$1,849
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $4,024
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$966
• After-tax cash flow: $5,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemlock Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2618180
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $57,712
• Composite: 35.18/100
• National rank: #4999
• State rank: #198 of 540 in MI

Livability — Shields

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #1310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,126

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.02%
• Current HPI: 213.8908
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $160,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $969 · -70.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.