27 Summerhaze Cir · The Woodlands, TX 77382

$274,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,605 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2002 2,496 sqft lot $171/sqft · 24% below area Est $361k · 24% under $136/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Woodlands' prime location with zoning to Powell, Mitchell, McCullough Jr Hi, and Woodlands High School! Townhouse with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths - HOA only $136 a month! (HOA takes care of the roofs and exteriors, no landscaping.) NEW CARPET! NEW PAINT IN PRINCIPAL LIVING AREAS! 2-car attached garage, no back neighbors, greenbelt with easy access walking trail. Fenced backyard with fire pit. Double pantries, gas stove, galley kitchen open to dining area and living room. Laundry room upstairs with bedrooms, nook for small office, play area, or.... you choose! Great starter home, investment for landlords, or vacation home. Property has been a rental and is sold as is. Ready for some cosmetic TLC - priced accordingly.

Key facts

• Walking trail
• Galley kitchen
• Fire pit

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• FIRE PIT
• DOUBLE PANTRIES
• GAS STOVE
• GALLEY KITCHEN
• WALKING TRAIL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-410 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Powell El (math 75% / reading 67%, grade A-, #128 of 4,322 statewide, top 3%, 890 students, 24% FRL); Mccullough J H (math 82% / reading 81%, grade A+, #9 of 1,662 statewide, top 1%, 2,178 students, 14% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 293 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($162k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 14445% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,391 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.40%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,745
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: -23.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Veranda Ridge Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,643 (+2%)	7mo	$339,900	$207	66
27 Veranda Ridge Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,643 (+2%)	16mo	$334,900	$204	58
138 S Veranda Ridge Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,758 (+10%)	3mo	$349,500	$199	56
34 W Foxbriar Forest Cir	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,785 (+11%)	1mo	$310,000	$174	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-74,270
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-112,510
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77382

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 293
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,168 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$431 /mo · $5,174/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$136
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,688

Max offer price $202,391

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-255	-5% $-333	+0% $-410	+5% $-488	+10% $-566
Rent	-10% $-582	-5% $-496	+0% $-410	+5% $-325	+10% $-239
Rate	-1.0pp $-272	-0.5pp $-341	base $-410	+0.5pp $-482	+1.0pp $-554

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2443 Farm to Market Road 1488 #3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,163	$1.37	1d	1	1.14mi
2443 Farm to Market Road 1488 #2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1387	$2,087	$1.50	5d	1	1.14mi
2443 Farm to Market Road 1488 #2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1387	$2,120	$1.53	1d	1	1.14mi
2443 Farm to Market Road 1488 #2476 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,203	$1.40	12d	1	1.15mi
2443 Farm to Market Road 1488 #2480 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1387	$2,079	$1.50	1d	1	1.15mi
4400 College Park Dr Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$2,227	$2.21	0d	25	1.21mi
2443 FM 1488 Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	1.0	1181	$1,711	$1.45	26d	1	1.29mi
2443 Farm To Market RD Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$2,385	$2.26	1d	36	1.31mi
2477 Farm to Market Road 1488 #3047 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,765	$1.25	13d	1	1.32mi
2477 Farm To Market RD Conroe, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1129	$1,741	$1.54	0d	36	1.32mi
175 Merryweather Pl Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1814	$1,990	$1.10	19d	1	1.35mi
7575 Gosling Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$2,245	$2.43	1d	24	1.36mi
2477 Farm to Market Road 1488 #3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,714	$1.22	1d	1	1.38mi
2477 Farm to Market Road 1488 #2510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,754	$1.25	12d	1	1.38mi
2443 Farm to Market Road 1488 #3047 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,214	$1.40	1d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $136 · $1,632/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscaping

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-05-17
   historical $1,890
2. 2026-04-26
   listed $1,890
3. 2026-03-27
   listed $274,900 Active 731-char remark

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   The Woodlands' prime location with zoning to Powell, Mitchell, McCullough Jr Hi, and Woodlands High School! Townhouse with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths - HOA only $136 a month! (HOA takes care of the roofs and exteriors, no landscaping.) NEW CARPET! NEW PAINT IN PRINCIPAL LIVING AREAS! 2-car attached garage, no back neighbors, greenbelt with easy access walking trail. Fenced backyard with fire pit. Double pantries, gas stove, galley kitchen open to dining area and living room. Laundry room upstairs with bedrooms, nook for small office, play area, or.... you choose! Great starter home, investment for landlords, or vacation home. Property has been a rental and is sold as is. Ready for some cosmetic TLC - priced accordingly.

4. 2026-03-27
   historical

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   The Woodlands' prime location with zoning to Powell, Mitchell, McCullough Jr Hi, and Woodlands High School! Townhouse with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths - HOA only $136 a month! (HOA takes care of the roofs and exteriors, no landscaping.) NEW CARPET! NEW PAINT IN PRINCIPAL LIVING AREAS! 2-car attached garage, no back neighbors, greenbelt with easy access walking trail. Fenced backyard with fire pit. Double pantries, gas stove, galley kitchen open to dining area and living room. Laundry room upstairs with bedrooms, nook for small office, play area, or.... you choose! Great starter home, investment for landlords, or vacation home. Property has been a rental and is sold as is. Ready for some cosmetic TLC - priced accordingly.

5. 2026-02-25
   status Active
6. 2026-02-23
   historical
7. 2026-01-27
   listed $279,900 Active
8. 2025-08-20
   historical $1,895
9. 2025-08-13
   listed $1,895
10. 2023-12-06
    historical $1,865
11. 2023-11-15
    listed $1,865
12. 2022-12-30
    soldstatus
13. 2013-12-11
    soldstatus
14. 2013-12-10
    soldstatus Sold
15. 2013-12-09
    status Pending
16. 2013-11-14
    status Pending, Continue to Show
17. 2013-11-11
    status Option Pending
18. 2013-11-06
    status Active
19. 2013-10-29
    status Pending, Continue to Show
20. 2013-10-22
    status Option Pending
21. 2013-10-17
    listed $165,000 Active
22. 2011-07-21
    soldstatus
23. 2011-07-18
    soldstatus
24. 2011-06-17
    historical
25. 2011-05-13
    listed $135,000
26. 2006-02-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,174 · $431/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,174 · $431/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$5,174
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,081
• − Management: −$2,081
• − HOA: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$9,721
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,333
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Woodlands, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,986
• Household income: $162,384
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 616.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 15% Asian 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.44%
• Current HPI: 233.2304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.25%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.6% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Rental Removed $1,890 HARMLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed for Rent $1,890 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $274,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Rental Removed $1,895 HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed for Rent $1,895 HARMLS
• 2023-12-06 Rental Removed $1,865 HARMLS
• 2023-11-15 Listed for Rent $1,865 HARMLS
• 2022-12-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-12-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-12-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-11-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-11-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-11-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2013-10-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-10-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-10-17 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2011-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-07-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-06-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-05-13 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2006-02-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,174 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.