1229 E State Highway 63 · South Toledo Bend, TX 75932

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1985 3.61 ac lot $60/sqft · 78% below area ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

MASSIVE PRICE REDUCTION!! Country living with convenience on 3.6 mostly cleared acres just off the highway! This brick home offers 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and 2 half baths with an open-concept living/dining/kitchen area, flex space features a wood-burning fireplace. A bright study with abundant natural light provides the perfect home office or flex space, while a huge utility area and generous storage throughout add everyday functionality. The property includes a 2-car attached garage plus a detached carport ideal for RV or boat storage, along with a large metal barn ready for hobbies, equipment, or livestock. With a flexible layout and tons of potential, this rural property offers space t

Key facts

• Detached carport
• Huge utility area
• Generous storage

Tags

• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• BRIGHT STUDY
• HUGE UTILITY AREA
• GENEROUS STORAGE
• DETACHED CARPORT
• LARGE METAL BARN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.4% in South Toledo Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,431 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, schools F.
• Burkeville ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #966 of 1,141 in TX (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.24%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $540,000
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -74.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1620 State Highway 63 E	0.39mi	3/3.0	2,272 (+13%)	1mo	$540,000	$238	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $59,126
• Equity at exit: $95,218

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.99×
• Total profit: $167,726
• Equity at exit: $193,008

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75932

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,333 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,393/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,218

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $120,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-04-10
   price $139,500
5. 2026-04-10
   price $139,500
6. 2026-03-18
   price $149,500
7. 2026-03-18
   price $149,500
8. 2026-02-09
   listed $159,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,393 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,393 · $283/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$3,393
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,279
• − Management: −$1,279
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$772
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$185
• After-tax cash flow: $1,275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burkeville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812150
• Math proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,753
• Composite: 29.92/100
• National rank: #11672
• State rank: #966 of 1141 in TX

Livability — South Toledo Bend

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1431
• US rank: #24460

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,339

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 10% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Hungarian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.49%
• Current HPI: 214.4428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $139,500 BBOR
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $139,500 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $149,500 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $149,500 BBOR
• 2026-02-09 Listed $159,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,393 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.