401 W Pine · Midland, TX 79705

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1958 9,757 sqft lot $105/sqft · at area comps Est $157k · at est. ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AS IS WHERE IS- Owner will not make any repairs. Corner lot home with lots of potential. 2 storage sheds/shops. Washer/dryer connections in sun room, move or lift up cabinet to locate.

Key facts

• Sun room
• Corner lot
• Storage sheds

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• STORAGE SHEDS
• WASHER DRYER CONNECTIONS
• SUN ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, commute D+.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.78%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,511
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -4.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,813
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $45,834
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79705

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,958 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,166/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $602	-5% $560	+0% $517	+5% $475	+10% $433
Rent	-10% $363	-5% $440	+0% $517	+5% $595	+10% $672
Rate	-1.0pp $593	-0.5pp $556	base $517	+0.5pp $479	+1.0pp $439

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
410 W Pine Ave Unit B Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,850	$1.62	21d	1	0.08mi
407 W Spruce Ave Unit A-1 Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,600	$1.48	21d	1	0.09mi
2602 N Pecos St Unit B Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1663	$2,300	$1.38	14d	1	0.20mi
2301 N Pecos St Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1082	$1,612	$1.49	44d	2	0.28mi
2301 N Pecos St Midland, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$1,562	$1.48	21d	3	0.28mi
711 W Dormard Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,150	$1.51	44d	1	0.31mi
202 E Shandon Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$2,400	$1.95	21d	1	0.40mi
405 Humble Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	876	$1,250	$1.43	44d	1	0.41mi
416 Maple Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,750	$1.58	21d	1	0.55mi
3600 Edwards St Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$2,886	$2.94	14d	19	0.64mi
1710 N Weatherford St Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1165	$1,950	$1.67	21d	1	0.71mi
1212 E Wadley Ave Unit 1223 Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	932	$1,138	$1.22	21d	1	0.82mi
3700 N Edwards St Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,911	$2.00	14d	18	0.84mi
3700 N A St Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	971	$2,039	$2.10	14d	1	0.84mi
3214 Carver St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1286	$2,300	$1.79	44d	1	0.90mi
1513 Club Dr Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1502	$2,300	$1.53	21d	1	0.93mi
1100 N Colorado St Unit NA Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1768	$2,500	$1.41	21d	1	1.12mi
1101 N Carrizo St Unit 6 Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	915	$1,500	$1.64	14d	1	1.13mi
4407 Trevino St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,500	$1.53	14d	1	1.21mi
930 Edwards St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,750	$1.50	14d	1	1.27mi
2100 W Wadley Ave Unit L1 Midland, TX	3.0	3.0	1854	$2,300	$1.24	44d	1	1.37mi
1511 Bedford Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1732	$2,500	$1.44	44d	1	1.41mi
1002 W Louisiana Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.5	1472	$2,500	$1.70	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $150,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $160,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    price $160,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 49 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 48 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 47 DOM
19. 2026-05-06
    price $180,000 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    AS IS WHERE IS- Owner will not make any repairs. Corner lot home with lots of potential. 2 storage sheds/shops. Washer/dryer connections in sun room, move or lift up cabinet to locate.

20. 2026-04-13
    listed $185,000 Active 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    AS IS WHERE IS- Owner will not make any repairs. Corner lot home with lots of potential. 2 storage sheds/shops. Washer/dryer connections in sun room, move or lift up cabinet to locate.

21. 2014-04-28
    soldstatus
22. 1981-08-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,166 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$579/yr (+$48/mo · 26.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 64% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,166
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,880
• − Management: −$1,880
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $4,058
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$974
• After-tax cash flow: $5,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,653
• Household income: $105,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 20% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.44%
• Current HPI: 207.2904
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $180,000 PBBOR
• 2026-04-13 Listed $185,000 PBBOR
• 2014-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1981-08-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,166 · -17.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.