38013 Danberry Trl · Pillager, MN 56473

$99,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 432 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1951 0.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your Lake Placid getaway, featuring a sandy shoreline and stunning sunset views. This one-bedroom cabin sits just steps from the water, offering level elevation and easy access to the lake. Inside, you'll find vaulted ceilings, vinyl windows, and low-maintenance vinyl siding. The property also includes a yard shed with a built-in outhouse for added convenience. Located on MN Power leased land, this is a great opportunity to enjoy affordable lake living and start making lasting memories on the water. Schedule your showing and start enjoying lake life today!

Key facts

• Vinyl windows
• Level elevation
• Sunset views

Tags

• SANDY SHORELINE
• SUNSET VIEWS
• LEVEL ELEVATION
• EASY ACCESS TO THE LAKE
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• VINYL WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: $294 annual tax (2025)
• HOA & community: Land is leased (monthly land lease approximately $70.33)

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking listed
• Utilities: Water from sand point (other); Outhouse sewer; 100 amp electric service (Minnesota Power); Fuel: other
• Home design: Residential property; One story; Entry level on main; Pitched asphalt roof
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation; Asphalt pitched roof
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Private road frontage on a privately maintained road; Dock and lakefront access; Lake bottom: sand and weeds; Approximately 100 feet of waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level — approximately 14 x 6; Range
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (Main level) — approximately 13 x 9.5
• Bathrooms: One quarter bath
• Heating & cooling: No heating listed; No cooling listed
• Interior features: Range included; Main floor bedroom
• Laundry & utility: No built-in heating or cooling listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#722 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pillager Public School District (rural): math 43% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #146 of 301 in MN (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 179 units permitted in Morrison County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morrison County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $168/mo; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.10%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $5,966
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $33,896
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56473

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,399 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $294/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$168 /mo · $2,020/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $960

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $99,900 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-05-29
   listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $294 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $706 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$412/yr (+$34/mo · 140.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$294
• − Insurance: −$2,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,343
• − Management: −$1,343
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $2,786
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$669
• After-tax cash flow: $3,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pillager Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2728350
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,200
• Composite: 41.06/100
• National rank: #3577
• State rank: #146 of 301 in MN

Livability — Pillager

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #722
• US rank: #17425

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Morrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,479 people
• By 2030: 30,414 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 27,935 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 25,229 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 20,093 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 16,173 · -48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Morrison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.0) · D 21.2% · R 77.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.0pp · 2024: -56.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.0 2020: R+53.5 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.65%
• Current HPI: 233.7849
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $99,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $294 · -12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.