3000 Villard Ave #155 · Helena, MT 59601

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,147 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Built 2002 Fair condition Est $112k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 2002
• Listed 37 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax listed (provided) — $561.90

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Land is leased
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story
• Construction: See remarks for foundation details
• Exterior features: Storage; Shed(s); Back yard; Front yard; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $658 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 2.6% in Helena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#6 in MT, #1,389 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Helena H S (town): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #42 of 116 in MT (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 456 units permitted in Lewis and Clark County in 2024 (207 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis and Clark County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.50%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,406
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3000 Villard Ave Unit 130A	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+0%)	13mo	$105,000	$91	78
3000 Villard Ave #33	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	5mo	$114,900	$94	76
3000 Villard Ave #188	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+4%)	12mo	$184,900	$156	74
3000 Villard Ave #99	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-0%)	14mo	$139,500	$122	69
3000 Villard Ave #115	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	11mo	$80,000	$64	66
3000 Villard Ave #307	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	18mo	$140,000	$115	65
3000 Villard Ave #326	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	23mo	$160,000	$132	60
3000 Villard Ave #15	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	24mo	$119,500	$98	60
3000 Villard Ave #5	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+13%)	13mo	$110,000	$85	57
3000 Villard Ave #12	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,020 (-11%)	11mo	$89,900	$88	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $19,771
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $60,440
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59601

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,883 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $658

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,807
• − Management: −$1,807
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $6,366
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,528
• After-tax cash flow: $6,369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. Painting and updating the kitchen are key value-adds.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate exterior siding — Weathered and discolored
• Minor interior paint — Some wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replacing dated cabinetry in kitchen — Modernizes kitchen and increases appeal
• Both upgrading appliances in kitchen — Improves functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Weathered and discolored	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
interior paint · Some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$3,500–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replacing dated cabinetry in kitchen — Modernizes kitchen and increases appeal ↑
• Both upgrading appliances in kitchen — Improves functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Helena H S
• NCES district ID: 3013830
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $55,565
• Composite: 38.26/100
• National rank: #4238
• State rank: #42 of 116 in MT

Livability — Helena

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #1389

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Helena, MT
• County: Lewis and Clark County · 62,482 people
• City population: 62,482
• Metro: Helena, MT
• Population (ZIP): 31,728
• Household income: $72,290
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1080.0

Population outlook (Lewis and Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 72,720 people
• By 2030: 75,403 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 79,496 · +9.3%
• By 2050: 82,741 · +13.8%
• By 2075: 90,296 · +24.2%
• By 2100: 93,425 · +28.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis and Clark

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 45.4% · R 51.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 6.5pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.9 2012: R+3.6 2008: D+6.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -417.31%
• Current HPI: 231.6233
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.54%
• Metro: Helena, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $149,900 MRMLS