72085 Cape Ninilchik Ave · Anchor Point, AK 99556

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2002 1.07 ac lot $165/sqft · 23% below area Est $324k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bed, 2 bath home offering 1,512 sq ft on 1.07 acres just 5 minutes from Anchor Point. Centrally located with easy access, this property provides a great balance of convenience and space. The home is ready for your finishing touch, making it a great opportunity for investors, DIY buyers, or anyone looking to build equity. Bring your vision and unlock the full potential this property has to offer!

Key facts

• 1.07 acre lot
• Built 2002
• Listed 27 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-509 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (36.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (41.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (41.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.3% in Anchor Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#23 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $145,850 (41.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.73%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,220
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -22.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
72085 Cape Ninilchik Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	0mo	$250,000	$165	100
30076 Whiskey Gulch Beach Rem SW	0.53mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,463 (-3%)	1mo	$499,000	$341	62
71605 Cape Ninilchik Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,296 (-14%)	10mo	$85,000	$66	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-9,317
• Equity at exit: $104,985

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $21,172
• Equity at exit: $156,242

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99556

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,458 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,955/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-509

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,103

Max offer price $160,038

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   3 bed, 2 bath home offering 1,512 sq ft on 1.07 acres just 5 minutes from Anchor Point. Centrally located with easy access, this property provides a great balance of convenience and space. The home is ready for your finishing touch, making it a great opportunity for investors, DIY buyers, or anyone looking to build equity. Bring your vision and unlock the full potential this property has to offer!

2. 2026-04-08
   status Active 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   3 bed, 2 bath home offering 1,512 sq ft on 1.07 acres just 5 minutes from Anchor Point. Centrally located with easy access, this property provides a great balance of convenience and space. The home is ready for your finishing touch, making it a great opportunity for investors, DIY buyers, or anyone looking to build equity. Bring your vision and unlock the full potential this property has to offer!

3. 2026-03-23
   status Pending 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   3 bed, 2 bath home offering 1,512 sq ft on 1.07 acres just 5 minutes from Anchor Point. Centrally located with easy access, this property provides a great balance of convenience and space. The home is ready for your finishing touch, making it a great opportunity for investors, DIY buyers, or anyone looking to build equity. Bring your vision and unlock the full potential this property has to offer!

4. 2026-03-21
   listed $250,000 Active 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   3 bed, 2 bath home offering 1,512 sq ft on 1.07 acres just 5 minutes from Anchor Point. Centrally located with easy access, this property provides a great balance of convenience and space. The home is ready for your finishing touch, making it a great opportunity for investors, DIY buyers, or anyone looking to build equity. Bring your vision and unlock the full potential this property has to offer!

5. 2012-08-02
   listed $164,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,955 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,965 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: +$10/yr (+$1/mo · 0.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,955
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,400
• − Management: −$1,400
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$10,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,587
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchor Point

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #23
• US rank: #10486

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchor Point, AK
• Population (ZIP): 2,858

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Current HPI: 169.1953
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+52.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $250,000 AKMLS
• 2012-08-02 Listed $164,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,955 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.