876 Swede Rd · Panama, NY 14767

$89,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1975 1.70 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Hunting Camp or get away. This property butts up to over 1000 acres of State Land. This Ranch home has 1 bedroom, Kitchen, Livingroom, Laundry Room and Full bathroom. The extra camp is next to the home & it can hold a few bunkbeds. A few sheds on the property for storage space. Home will come furnished except for some personal items.

Key facts

• Canopy of trees
• Creek
• 1.7 acres

Tags

• 1.7 ACRES
• ACCESS TO OVER 1000 ACRES
• BLEND OF ROLLING GREEN LAWN
• CANOPY OF TREES
• CREEK
• MANICURED LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing property condition
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Leased propane tank; Shed(s)/storage; Adjacent to public land; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Main-level primary bedroom; Primary suite; Has fireplace (2 fireplaces total)
• Laundry & utility: Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($729/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $78k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#863 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, schools B; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Panama Central School District (rural): math 72% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #202 of 755 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $486 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $90k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $78,470 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $3,522
• Equity at exit: $28,561

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $22,406
• Equity at exit: $36,359

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14767

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $785 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $603/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$165
• Net cashflow: $61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $708

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $86	+0% $61	+5% $35	+10% $10
Rent	-10% $-1	-5% $30	+0% $61	+5% $92	+10% $123
Rate	-1.0pp $106	-0.5pp $84	base $61	+0.5pp $37	+1.0pp $14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Active 1513-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1513-char remark
3. 2026-04-26
   listed $89,900 Active 1513-char remark
4. 2024-03-26
   soldstatus $45,000
5. 2024-03-25
   soldstatus $45,000 Closed 347-char remark

   Show marketing remark (347 chars)

   Great Hunting Camp or get away. This property butts up to over 1000 acres of State Land. This Ranch home has 1 bedroom, Kitchen, Livingroom, Laundry Room and Full bathroom. The extra camp is next to the home & it can hold a few bunkbeds. A few sheds on the property for storage space. Home will come furnished except for some personal items.

6. 2024-01-12
   status Pending 347-char remark

   Show marketing remark (347 chars)

   Great Hunting Camp or get away. This property butts up to over 1000 acres of State Land. This Ranch home has 1 bedroom, Kitchen, Livingroom, Laundry Room and Full bathroom. The extra camp is next to the home & it can hold a few bunkbeds. A few sheds on the property for storage space. Home will come furnished except for some personal items.

7. 2023-12-22
   status Pending Sale 347-char remark

   Show marketing remark (347 chars)

   Great Hunting Camp or get away. This property butts up to over 1000 acres of State Land. This Ranch home has 1 bedroom, Kitchen, Livingroom, Laundry Room and Full bathroom. The extra camp is next to the home & it can hold a few bunkbeds. A few sheds on the property for storage space. Home will come furnished except for some personal items.

8. 2023-09-29
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 347-char remark

   Show marketing remark (347 chars)

   Great Hunting Camp or get away. This property butts up to over 1000 acres of State Land. This Ranch home has 1 bedroom, Kitchen, Livingroom, Laundry Room and Full bathroom. The extra camp is next to the home & it can hold a few bunkbeds. A few sheds on the property for storage space. Home will come furnished except for some personal items.

9. 2023-09-24
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 347-char remark

   Show marketing remark (347 chars)

   Great Hunting Camp or get away. This property butts up to over 1000 acres of State Land. This Ranch home has 1 bedroom, Kitchen, Livingroom, Laundry Room and Full bathroom. The extra camp is next to the home & it can hold a few bunkbeds. A few sheds on the property for storage space. Home will come furnished except for some personal items.

10. 2023-09-21
    listed $49,900 Active 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Great Hunting Camp or get away. This property butts up to over 1000 acres of State Land. This Ranch home has 1 bedroom, Kitchen, Livingroom, Laundry Room and Full bathroom. The extra camp is next to the home & it can hold a few bunkbeds. A few sheds on the property for storage space. Home will come furnished except for some personal items.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $603 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,061 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$458/yr (+$38/mo · 75.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$603
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$753
• − Management: −$753
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable loss: −$794
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$191
• After-tax cash flow: $919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Panama Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622410
• Math proficiency: 72% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,976
• Composite: 58.33/100
• National rank: #2085
• State rank: #202 of 755 in NY

Livability — Panama

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #863
• US rank: #16639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,156

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 1% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 4% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · German/W. Germanic 22% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Current HPI: 328.2427
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+80.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-12 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $89,900 UNYREIS
• 2024-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-25 Sold (MLS) $45,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-01-12 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2023-12-22 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2023-09-29 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2023-09-24 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2023-09-21 Listed $49,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $603 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.