329 Miller Shumway Rd · Guilford, NY 13815

$49,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1988 8.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Situated on 8.4 acres along a quiet country road, this doublewide offers privacy, space, and potential for the right buyer willing to put in some work. The home features 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a kitchen with breakfast bar and spacious dining area, large entry/mud room, family room with access to deck. Outside you will find an oversized two-bay garage/barn, new shed, and newer generator. Set back from the road with a tree-lined backdrop, the property offers a peaceful rural setting with room to expand, garden, or simply enjoy the outdoors. Property is in need of significant repairs and updating and will require some imagination and effort to bring it back to its full potential. Being sold

Key facts

• Quiet country road
• Tree-lined backdrop
• Newer generator

Tags

• 8.4 ACRES
• QUIET COUNTRY ROAD
• OVERSIZED TWO-BAY GARAGE
• NEW SHED
• NEWER GENERATOR
• TREE-LINED BACKDROP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 8.4 acres; Lot dimensions approx. 389 x 937; Lot features: agricultural, irregular lot

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story (1 story); Double-wide mobile home; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Existing (not new construction)
• Exterior features: Deck; Dirt driveway; Gravel driveway; Propane tank (leased); Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Forced-air heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Separate/formal living room; Primary suite; Bedroom on main level; Main level primary; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Oil water heater; Generator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $486 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,083 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Norwich City School District (town): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #498 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Chenango County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chenango County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $49,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.76%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.16×
• Total profit: $58,135
• Equity at exit: $44,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.2%
• Equity multiple: 11.51×
• Total profit: $146,828
• Equity at exit: $96,945

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13815

• Home prices YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,003 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $280/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $387

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $49,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,900 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $280 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $562 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$281/yr (+$23/mo · 100.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$280
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$962
• − Management: −$962
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $5,329
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,279
• After-tax cash flow: $4,555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Norwich City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621330
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,687
• Composite: 35.68/100
• National rank: #4874
• State rank: #498 of 590 in NY

Livability — Guilford

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1083
• US rank: #21865

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,855

Population outlook (Chenango County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,669 people
• By 2030: 43,484 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 38,774 · -15.1%
• By 2050: 34,000 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 24,637 · -46.1%
• By 2100: 16,452 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Chenango

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.2) · D 36.4% · R 63.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -27.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.2 2020: R+23.3 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+3.4 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.23%
• Current HPI: 280.463
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $49,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $280 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.