COURTLAND Plan · Rosenberg, TX 77417

$391,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,297 sqft · SingleFamily · 92 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Courtland plan. This single-story home offers 4 spacious bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and a 3-car garage, all within 2,297 sqft. of thoughtfully planned living space. The open-concept layout features a modern kitchen with a large island, stainless steel appliances, a corner pantry, and a convenient breakfast bar. The kitchen seamlessly flows into the dining area and the family room, which opens to a covered patio. The primary suite is tucked away at the rear of the home, showcasing a walk-in closet and a luxurious bathroom with dual vanities and a standing shower. 3 secondary bedrooms, with one of the bedrooms offering a private en-suite bathroom. Additional highlights include a spacious utility room, extra storage space, and direct access from the 3-car garage.

Key facts

• Corner pantry
• Large island
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CORNER PANTRY
• BREAKFAST BAR

🏗️ New construction. The $391,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $412,355.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $392k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-593 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($357k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $285,632 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.17%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $412,355
• List price: $391,990
• Delta: -4.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6710 Pelican Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,121 (-8%)	2mo	$511,060	$241	71
6727 Pelican Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,121 (-8%)	1mo	$470,816	$222	70
1811 Beasley West End Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,991 (-13%)	7mo	$378,500	$190	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $37,656
• Equity at exit: $212,774

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $156,904
• Equity at exit: $350,998

Cash invested: $115,459 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,162
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$515 /mo · $6,185/yr
• Insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $-593

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,607

Max offer price $326,518

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,089
• Closing costs: $12,371
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
402 N 4th St Beasley, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,750	$2.21	1d	1	1.13mi
119 S 8th St Beasley, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,680	$1.00	24d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $391,990 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $391,990 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $391,990 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $391,990 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $391,990 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $391,990 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $391,990 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $391,990 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $391,990 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $391,990 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $391,990 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $391,990 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $391,990 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    price $391,990 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Welcome to the Courtland plan. This single-story home offers 4 spacious bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and a 3-car garage, all within 2,297 sqft. of thoughtfully planned living space. The open-concept layout features a modern kitchen with a large island, stainless steel appliances, a corner pantry, and a convenient breakfast bar. The kitchen seamlessly flows into the dining area and the family room, which opens to a covered patio. The primary suite is tucked away at the rear of the home, showcasing a walk-in closet and a luxurious bathroom with dual vanities and a standing shower. 3 secondary bedrooms, with one of the bedrooms offering a private en-suite bathroom. Additional highlights include a spacious utility room, extra storage space, and direct access from the 3-car garage.

15. 2026-03-18
    listed $384,990 Active 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Welcome to the Courtland plan. This single-story home offers 4 spacious bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and a 3-car garage, all within 2,297 sqft. of thoughtfully planned living space. The open-concept layout features a modern kitchen with a large island, stainless steel appliances, a corner pantry, and a convenient breakfast bar. The kitchen seamlessly flows into the dining area and the family room, which opens to a covered patio. The primary suite is tucked away at the rear of the home, showcasing a walk-in closet and a luxurious bathroom with dual vanities and a standing shower. 3 secondary bedrooms, with one of the bedrooms offering a private en-suite bathroom. Additional highlights include a spacious utility room, extra storage space, and direct access from the 3-car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,098
• − Property taxes: −$6,185
• − Insurance: −$2,062
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,742
• − Management: −$2,742
• − Depreciation: −$11,996
• Taxable loss: −$14,549
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,492
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Courtland plan single-story home in Rosenberg, TX, is in good condition with a modern kitchen and 3 full bathrooms. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 115,151
• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $391,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-18 Listed $384,990 Zillow