4423 Fish Ln · Joseph City, AZ 86032

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2003 0.39 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to small-town living at its best! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home sits on a generous 0.39-acre lot on a quiet street in the peaceful community of Joseph City, Arizona. What truly sets this home apart is the large, spacious family room -- a rare feature in manufactured homes -- perfect for gatherings, game nights, or simply spreading out and relaxing. Outside, you'll find an impressive setup that's hard to beat at this price point: a substantial metal building ideal for a garage, workshop, or equipment storage, plus a shipping container for additional covered storage. The expansive yard offers plenty of room for gardening, animals, or outdoor entertaining.

Key facts

• Shipping container
• Large family room
• Expansive yard

Tags

• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• SUBSTANTIAL METAL BUILDING
• SHIPPING CONTAINER
• EXPANSIVE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Road maintenance by county; Approximately 0.39 acres; Subdivision: Joseph City Unsubdivided
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Metered water available; Natural gas available; Power available (APS); Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home (double wide); Single-story; Private property adjoins
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Metal pitched roof; Other foundation; Built by Clayton
• Exterior features: Front porch; Other outbuilding on property; Chain link fence; Recorded survey; Trees on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Pantry; Refrigerator; Kitchen/dining room combo
• Bedrooms: Includes a potential bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Double vanity; Full bath; Jack-and-Jill layout; Shower; Garden tub; Tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Smoke detector; Vaulted ceiling; Gas fireplace; Woodstove; Carpet and laminate flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#26 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Joseph City Unified District (4388) (rural): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #68 of 249 in AZ (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $107k; list at $199k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,071 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.11%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $17,656
• Equity at exit: $89,479

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $71,491
• Equity at exit: $137,898

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86032

• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,391 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $839/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,514

Max offer price $181,728

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $199,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   remarks 693-char remark
7. 2026-06-03
   listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $839 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,313 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$474/yr (+$40/mo · 56.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$839
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,752
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,141
• After-tax cash flow: $-33/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joseph City Unified District (4388)
• NCES district ID: 0404010
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $47,954
• Composite: 33.86/100
• National rank: #5351
• State rank: #68 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Joseph City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #5840

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Joseph City, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,065

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 26% Native American 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 6% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+85.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $199,000 WMMLS
• 2004-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $107,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $839 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.