15111 Pipeline Ave #18 · Chino Hills, CA 91709

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · Manufactured public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2002 $160/sqft · 14% below area Est $256k · 14% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Lake Los Serranos, a Desirable, 55+ Community in Chino Hills. A nicely sized 3 bedroom and 2 bathroom home located towards the front of the community and approximately a block away from the clubhouse. The entrance into the home is from the covered side porch; once inside you are greeted with a nicely sized living room that leads and opens to the dining area. Just off the dining area is the kitchen that features with newer gas oven/range, dishwasher, and refrigerator. The home has a split floor plan with the primary bedroom and bathroom separate from the guest bedrooms. The two guest bedrooms share a bathroom that has a shower/tub. The primary bedroom has an adjoining bathroom with a walk-in shower. Additional features of the home: exterior of the home recently painted, laundry room that includes full-size washer and dryer and overhead cabinets, central a/c (2025), central heating, storage shed and large covered carport. Lake Los Serranos has many activities for you to get involved with and is close to The Shoppes, Restaurants, Kaiser Permanente.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 2002
• Listed 76 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 2.1% in Chino Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#299 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, schools A, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Chino Valley Unified (suburban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #334 of 1,400 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 187 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.35%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,154
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -14.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15111 Pipeline Ave #158	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	4mo	$260,000	$193	93
15111 Pipeline Ave #274	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-3%)	3mo	$260,000	$195	93
15111 Pipeline Ave #196	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+4%)	2mo	$285,000	$201	92
15111 Pipeline Ave #66	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+2%)	12mo	$319,000	$227	86
15111 PIPELINE Unit SP 281	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-2%)	7mo	$119,900	$89	86
15111 Pipeline #64	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,245 (-9%)	3mo	$280,000	$225	82
15111 Pipeline Ave #204	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+5%)	10mo	$143,000	$99	78
15111 Pipeline Ave #185	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+5%)	11mo	$80,000	$56	77
15111 Pipeline Ave #24	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+5%)	9mo	$110,000	$76	74
15111 Pipeline Ave #120	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+10%)	7mo	$287,500	$190	72
15111 Pipeline Ave #115	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,220 (-11%)	11mo	$260,000	$213	67
15111 Pipeline Ave #125	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-12%)	10mo	$220,000	$183	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $37,465
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $101,537
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91709

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,570 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,298/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$750
• Net cashflow: $1,300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,924

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15040 Beechwood Ln Chino Hills, CA	4.0	2.0	1640	$3,600	$2.20	43d	1	0.26mi
4432 Lilac Cir Chino Hills, CA	3.0	3.5	1695	$3,200	$1.89	4d	1	0.35mi
15031 Ashwood Ln Chino Hills, CA	4.0	2.0	1800	$3,500	$1.94	43d	1	0.37mi
4361 Los Serranos Blvd Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.0	1256	$3,200	$2.55	16d	1	0.42mi
4628 Bird Farm Rd Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.0	1152	$3,250	$2.82	43d	1	0.57mi
4186 Val Verde Ave Chino Hills, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$8,000	$8.00	43d	1	0.63mi
15345 Murray Ave Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.0	1527	$3,395	$2.22	2d	1	0.74mi
3724 Alder Pl Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.0	1240	$3,600	$2.90	21d	1	0.81mi
15101 Fairfield Ranch Rd Chino Hills, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$3,600	$3.42	1d	19	0.96mi
15447 Pomona Rincon Rd Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.5	1397	$3,350	$2.40	15d	2	1.01mi
16169 Singing Hills Dr Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.5	1478	$3,600	$2.44	43d	1	1.26mi
15996 Mihaylo Ct Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.5	1541	$3,850	$2.50	43d	1	1.31mi
3100 Chino Hills Pkwy Chino Hills, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$4,033	$3.93	1d	18	1.40mi
15583 Oak Springs Rd Chino Hills, CA	4.0	3.0	1703	$3,800	$2.23	15d	1	1.40mi
3099 Oakview Ln Chino Hills, CA	3.0	3.0	1640	$3,500	$2.13	43d	1	1.41mi
15773 High Knoll Dr Chino Hills, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	778	$2,999	$3.85	1d	15	1.43mi
14728 Fieldflower Cir Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.0	1700	$3,800	$2.24	43d	1	1.45mi
15886 Ellington Way Chino Hills, CA	4.0	3.0	1848	$3,300	$1.79	16d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $219,900 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $234,900 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,900 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,900 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,900 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,900 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    price $234,900 1072-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1072 chars)

    Welcome to Lake Los Serranos, a Desirable, 55+ Community in Chino Hills. A nicely sized 3 bedroom and 2 bathroom home located towards the front of the community and approximately a block away from the clubhouse. The entrance into the home is from the covered side porch; once inside you are greeted with a nicely sized living room that leads and opens to the dining area. Just off the dining area is the kitchen that features with newer gas oven/range, dishwasher, and refrigerator. The home has a split floor plan with the primary bedroom and bathroom separate from the guest bedrooms. The two guest bedrooms share a bathroom that has a shower/tub. The primary bedroom has an adjoining bathroom with a walk-in shower. Additional features of the home: exterior of the home recently painted, laundry room that includes full-size washer and dryer and overhead cabinets, central a/c (2025), central heating, storage shed and large covered carport. Lake Los Serranos has many activities for you to get involved with and is close to The Shoppes, Restaurants, Kaiser Permanente.

15. 2026-04-03
    listed $239,900 Active 1072-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1072 chars)

    Welcome to Lake Los Serranos, a Desirable, 55+ Community in Chino Hills. A nicely sized 3 bedroom and 2 bathroom home located towards the front of the community and approximately a block away from the clubhouse. The entrance into the home is from the covered side porch; once inside you are greeted with a nicely sized living room that leads and opens to the dining area. Just off the dining area is the kitchen that features with newer gas oven/range, dishwasher, and refrigerator. The home has a split floor plan with the primary bedroom and bathroom separate from the guest bedrooms. The two guest bedrooms share a bathroom that has a shower/tub. The primary bedroom has an adjoining bathroom with a walk-in shower. Additional features of the home: exterior of the home recently painted, laundry room that includes full-size washer and dryer and overhead cabinets, central a/c (2025), central heating, storage shed and large covered carport. Lake Los Serranos has many activities for you to get involved with and is close to The Shoppes, Restaurants, Kaiser Permanente.

16. 2026-03-21
    historical $239,900 1072-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1072 chars)

    Welcome to Lake Los Serranos, a Desirable, 55+ Community in Chino Hills. A nicely sized 3 bedroom and 2 bathroom home located towards the front of the community and approximately a block away from the clubhouse. The entrance into the home is from the covered side porch; once inside you are greeted with a nicely sized living room that leads and opens to the dining area. Just off the dining area is the kitchen that features with newer gas oven/range, dishwasher, and refrigerator. The home has a split floor plan with the primary bedroom and bathroom separate from the guest bedrooms. The two guest bedrooms share a bathroom that has a shower/tub. The primary bedroom has an adjoining bathroom with a walk-in shower. Additional features of the home: exterior of the home recently painted, laundry room that includes full-size washer and dryer and overhead cabinets, central a/c (2025), central heating, storage shed and large covered carport. Lake Los Serranos has many activities for you to get involved with and is close to The Shoppes, Restaurants, Kaiser Permanente.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,298
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,427
• − Management: −$3,427
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable income: $12,871
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,089
• After-tax cash flow: $12,517/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chino Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608460
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $83,575
• Composite: 49.56/100
• National rank: #4275
• State rank: #334 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Chino Hills

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #9993

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chino Hills, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 78,006
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 78,006
• Household income: $126,350
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1964.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 40% Hispanic / Latino 28% White 24% Two or more races 14% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Chinese 18% Spanish 14% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.62%
• Current HPI: 383.5042
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.20%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $234,900 CRMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $239,900 CRMLS
• 2026-03-21 Coming Soon $239,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $287 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.