902 Essex Dr · Friendswood, TX 77546

$272,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,321 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1981 0.27 ac lot $117/sqft · 30% below area Est $398k · 32% under $2/mo HOA ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention all investors! This property is waiting for your personal touch to revitalize it. Featuring a spacious layout, large lot, and situated in a highly desirable neighborhood. Recent upgrades include a new roof and luxury vinyl plank flooring. Don't let this opportunity pass you by to transform this house into your dream home.

Key facts

• Large lot
• New roof
• 0.27 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• NEW ROOF
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• HIGHLY DESIRABLE NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $272k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-932/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.4% in Friendswood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#338 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Friendswood ISD (suburban): math 64% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #15 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 512 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,285 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $397,632
• List price: $272,000
• Delta: -31.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
902 Essex Dr	0.00mi	5/2.5	2,369 (+2%)	1mo	$272,000	$115	96
715 Regency Ct	0.40mi	5/2.0	2,400 (+3%)	14mo	$345,000	$144	62
1017 Tipperary Ave	0.40mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,209 (-5%)	8mo	$428,999	$194	62
1012 Glenshannon Ave	0.30mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,115 (-9%)	6mo	$415,000	$196	61
801 Lancaster Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,972 (-15%)	7mo	$365,000	$185	55
1104 Glenshannon Ave	0.38mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,529 (+9%)	8mo	$494,900	$196	55
804 Balmoral Ct	0.36mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,535 (+9%)	10mo	$475,000	$187	54
704 Balmoral Ct	0.38mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,576 (+11%)	11mo	$515,000	$200	50
711 Greenbriar Ave	0.57mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,448 (+6%)	12mo	$550,000	$225	50
1509 Windsor Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,998 (-14%)	1mo	$399,900	$200	48
1219 Merriewood Dr	0.53mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,669 (+15%)	1mo	$534,000	$200	41
1708 Keystone Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,462 (+6%)	18mo	$475,000	$193	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-49,483
• Equity at exit: $40,556

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-51,347
• Equity at exit: $23,518

Cash invested: $76,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77546

• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 512
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,693 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,426
• Tax from tax record: −$663 /mo · $7,958/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,791

Max offer price $258,285

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $76	-5% $-1	+0% $-78	+5% $-155	+10% $-232
Rent	-10% $-290	-5% $-184	+0% $-78	+5% $29	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $59	-0.5pp $-8	base $-78	+0.5pp $-148	+1.0pp $-220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,000
• Closing costs: $8,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-27
   price $272,000 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Attention all investors! This property is waiting for your personal touch to revitalize it. Featuring a spacious layout, large lot, and situated in a highly desirable neighborhood. Recent upgrades include a new roof and luxury vinyl plank flooring. Don't let this opportunity pass you by to transform this house into your dream home.

2. 2026-04-14
   price $279,500 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Attention all investors! This property is waiting for your personal touch to revitalize it. Featuring a spacious layout, large lot, and situated in a highly desirable neighborhood. Recent upgrades include a new roof and luxury vinyl plank flooring. Don't let this opportunity pass you by to transform this house into your dream home.

3. 2026-04-14
   listed $284,000 Active 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Attention all investors! This property is waiting for your personal touch to revitalize it. Featuring a spacious layout, large lot, and situated in a highly desirable neighborhood. Recent upgrades include a new roof and luxury vinyl plank flooring. Don't let this opportunity pass you by to transform this house into your dream home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,958 · $663/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,958 · $663/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,236
• − Property taxes: −$7,958
• − Insurance: −$1,360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,585
• − Management: −$2,585
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$7,913
• Taxable loss: −$5,348
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,284
• After-tax cash flow: $352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Friendswood ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819950
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $109,699
• Composite: 60.52/100
• National rank: #841
• State rank: #15 of 826 in TX

Livability — Friendswood

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #338
• US rank: #7362

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Friendswood, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 54,789
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 54,789
• Household income: $123,756
• Rent vs Own: 24.0% rent · 76.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1350.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.03%
• Current HPI: 243.7934
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.74%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $272,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $279,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $284,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,958 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.