4166 51st Ave N · Birmingham, AL 35217

$69,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1940 6,969 sqft lot $50/sqft · 12% below area Est $79k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity in Tarrant. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features hardwood floors throughout and has been recently painted. All-electric utilities with electric heat and A/C. Major updates include a new sewer line in 2024, conversion to central A/C in 2025, and a new internal staircase to the basement garage with new garage door and motor in 2026. Additional updates include fresh interior paint and new blinds. Strong rental potential with low maintenance.

Key facts

• Central a/c
• Internal staircase
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEW SEWER LINE
• CENTRAL A/C
• INTERNAL STAIRCASE
• NEW GARAGE DOOR
• STRONG RENTAL POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $486 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.77%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,411
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -11.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
636 Jefferson Blvd	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,505 (+7%)	0mo	$65,000	$43	68
1360 Prosch Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	11mo	$84,000	$63	67
1269 Elm Ave	0.30mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,308 (-7%)	10mo	$125,000	$96	61
4318 49th Ct N	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-10%)	11mo	$95,800	$76	61
732 Fulton Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-6%)	4mo	$95,000	$72	60
1104 Linthicum St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,340 (-5%)	7mo	$56,000	$42	57
4338 49th Ct	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,205 (-14%)	10mo	$87,500	$73	56
1433 Ford Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-3%)	10mo	$90,000	$66	54
1012 Birmingham St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+12%)	3mo	$26,000	$17	49
4421 43rd St N	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-15%)	4mo	$42,000	$35	45
717 Jackson Blvd	0.44mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,604 (+14%)	8mo	$65,000	$41	45
1140 Wharton Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+11%)	12mo	$130,000	$83	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $20,336
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $60,583
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35217

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,223 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,022/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $609

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5015 42nd Pl N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	44d	1	0.09mi
4208 50th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	0.10mi
4212 50th Ave N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1517	$1,595	$1.05	2d	1	0.10mi
5025 43rd Pl N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1017	$1,300	$1.28	44d	1	0.20mi
1237 Elm Ave Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1312	$1,150	$0.88	44d	1	0.20mi
1043 Jackson Blvd Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,095	$0.84	14d	1	0.25mi
4925 43rd Way N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,461	$1.19	2d	1	0.32mi
1045 Waverly St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,000	$0.99	44d	1	0.36mi
732 Fulton Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1320	$1,450	$1.10	44d	1	0.36mi
1120 Hall St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	887	$775	$0.87	44d	1	0.37mi
1116 Hall St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	887	$775	$0.87	44d	1	0.38mi
4329 Harmon St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1227	$950	$0.77	44d	1	0.41mi
4329 Harmon St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1227	$950	$0.77	3d	1	0.41mi
1108 Hall St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1680	$850	$0.51	44d	1	0.41mi
1249 Waverly St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,000	$0.79	44d	1	0.41mi
1434 Thomason Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1644	$1,100	$0.67	44d	1	0.45mi
619 Bell Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1550	$1,075	$0.69	44d	1	0.46mi
4329 Pulaski St Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,353	$1.09	24d	1	0.47mi
1439 Sloan Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	936	$900	$0.96	44d	1	0.49mi
1316 Spring St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,195	$1.30	3d	1	0.50mi
4344 Pulaski St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1268	$1,050	$0.83	44d	1	0.50mi
1401 Wharton Ave Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1104	$950	$0.86	19d	1	0.51mi
4301 Greenwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,025	$0.90	3d	1	0.54mi
4418 43rd St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1710	$925	$0.54	24d	1	0.57mi
1076 Green St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1172	$1,050	$0.90	16d	1	0.60mi
4217 43rd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,200	$1.05	3d	1	0.69mi
4400 43rd St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1152	$850	$0.74	15d	1	0.72mi
4400 43rd St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1152	$850	$0.74	44d	1	0.72mi
1225 Elizabeth Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1697	$1,100	$0.65	19d	1	0.74mi
3823 43rd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	44d	1	0.75mi
3823 43rd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	24d	1	0.75mi
1303 Main St Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1432	$1,300	$0.91	44d	1	0.75mi
4316 Gadsden St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1048	$1,100	$1.05	3d	1	0.81mi
4220 40th Ct N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	948	$1,200	$1.27	44d	1	0.83mi
1731 Mountain Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1160	$975	$0.84	44d	1	0.83mi
4028 40th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1186	$950	$0.80	44d	1	0.87mi
1816 Damon Cir Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1401	$1,153	$0.82	16d	1	0.87mi
4231 40th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1272	$850	$0.67	19d	1	0.92mi
4236 39th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	24d	1	0.96mi
3708 42nd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	876	$950	$1.08	44d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $69,900 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $69,900 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-05-05
   price $69,900 471-char remark

   Show marketing remark (471 chars)

   Great investment opportunity in Tarrant. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features hardwood floors throughout and has been recently painted. All-electric utilities with electric heat and A/C. Major updates include a new sewer line in 2024, conversion to central A/C in 2025, and a new internal staircase to the basement garage with new garage door and motor in 2026. Additional updates include fresh interior paint and new blinds. Strong rental potential with low maintenance.

4. 2026-01-26
   listed $85,000 Active 471-char remark

   Show marketing remark (471 chars)

   Great investment opportunity in Tarrant. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features hardwood floors throughout and has been recently painted. All-electric utilities with electric heat and A/C. Major updates include a new sewer line in 2024, conversion to central A/C in 2025, and a new internal staircase to the basement garage with new garage door and motor in 2026. Additional updates include fresh interior paint and new blinds. Strong rental potential with low maintenance.

5. 2019-07-16
   soldstatus $225,500
6. 2019-05-09
   soldstatus $95,500
7. 2010-07-12
   soldstatus $30,000
8. 2002-06-28
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,022 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,022 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,022
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,174
• − Management: −$1,174
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $5,011
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,203
• After-tax cash flow: $4,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 12,240
• Household income: $40,486
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 594.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.54%
• Current HPI: 117.416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.58%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+27.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $69,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $85,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $225,500 Public Records
• 2019-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $95,500 Public Records
• 2010-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,022 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.