15011 NW 135th Ter · Alachua, FL 32615

$248,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,175 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2021 5,663 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prepare to Fall In Love With This Adorable 3/2 Home Nestled In the Heart of The Historic And Quaint City Of Alachua. The Home Includes Vinyl Plank Flooring As Well As Tile In the Wet Areas As Well As Tile Throughout. Close To Local Shopping and Schools. Under Construction.

Key facts

• One story home
• Spacious layout
• 5,663 sq ft lot

Tags

• ONE STORY HOME
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• EXCELLENT ACCESSIBILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-768/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#188 in FL, #2,996 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Alachua Elementary School (math 48% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 326 students, 70% FRL); Santa Fe High School (math 35% / reading 56%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,154 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 397 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,951 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-44,288
• Equity at exit: $36,978

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-43,910
• Equity at exit: $21,443

Cash invested: $69,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32615

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Active inventory: 397
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,301
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,688/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,061

Max offer price $236,688

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,000
• Closing costs: $7,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   listed $248,000 Active
3. 2021-03-29
   soldstatus $170,000
4. 2021-03-22
   soldstatus $170,000 273-char remark

   Show marketing remark (273 chars)

   Prepare to Fall In Love With This Adorable 3/2 Home Nestled In the Heart of The Historic And Quaint City Of Alachua. The Home Includes Vinyl Plank Flooring As Well As Tile In the Wet Areas As Well As Tile Throughout. Close To Local Shopping and Schools. Under Construction.

5. 2020-09-15
   listed $169,900 273-char remark

   Show marketing remark (273 chars)

   Prepare to Fall In Love With This Adorable 3/2 Home Nestled In the Heart of The Historic And Quaint City Of Alachua. The Home Includes Vinyl Plank Flooring As Well As Tile In the Wet Areas As Well As Tile Throughout. Close To Local Shopping and Schools. Under Construction.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,688 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,688 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,892
• − Property taxes: −$2,688
• − Insurance: −$1,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,900
• − Management: −$1,900
• − Depreciation: −$7,215
• Taxable loss: −$5,081
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,219
• After-tax cash flow: $451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Alachua

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #188
• US rank: #2996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alachua, FL
• City population: 31,819
• Population (ZIP): 16,244

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.36%
• Current HPI: 280.2476
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+46.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $248,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-22 Sold (MLS) $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-15 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+30.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,688 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.