1773 Blackwell Ln · Wildwood, FL 32163

$359,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2019 4,371 sqft lot Est $358k · at est. $204/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

1773 Blackwell Lane is a rare find in The Villages! This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath Emerald model Patio Villa offers features seldom found in this category, including a full 2-car garage PLUS a separate golf cart garage. Built in 2019 and located in the desirable Village of Monarch Grove, this home combines spacious living with privacy and convenience. Step inside to discover high ceilings and an open, airy floor plan that makes the home feel exceptionally spacious. The large primary suite features a generous 16x12 bedroom, walk-in closet, and an en suite bath with a separate water closet area for added privacy. Luxury vinyl flooring flows throughout the main living areas, kit

Key facts

• Full 2-car garage
• Privacy fence
• 4,371 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULL 2-CAR GARAGE
• SEPARATE GOLF CART GARAGE
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR PATIO
• ELECTRIC RETRACTABLE AWNING
• VIBRANT TROPICAL LANDSCAPING
• PRIVACY FENCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Total of 6 rooms
• Financial info: Other annual assessment (approx. $1,411); Annual tax (approx. $3,144.21); Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fees (approx. $204) with annual total around $2,448; Community clubhouse; Fitness center; Pool; Tennis courts; Golf and golf cart friendly; Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Street lights; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential villa; One story; Faces south; Homestead property; CDD community
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,976 square feet
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Outdoor lighting; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floorplan; Living room/dining room combo; Stone counters; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer; Dryer; Irrigation equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $341k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.9% in Wildwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#471 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $101k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $219k; list at $360k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $341,167 (5.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.29%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $357,926
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5949 Flint Loop	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-2%)	2mo	$335,000	$241	85
5934 Kaplan Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+4%)	10mo	$384,000	$259	77
1721 Germakian Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-2%)	11mo	$345,000	$248	71
5922 Baldeschwieler Way	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+7%)	10mo	$344,900	$226	70
6056 Chase Ct	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,295 (-9%)	8mo	$325,000	$251	70
5709 Grimes Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+4%)	1mo	$345,000	$232	66
1520 Sophie St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,497 (+5%)	2mo	$389,900	$260	66
5708 Grimes Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+4%)	9mo	$370,000	$249	61
1385 Turner Ter	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+5%)	1mo	$350,000	$235	57
5778 Henry Loop	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,531 (+7%)	6mo	$430,000	$281	52
2188 Gordon Path	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+8%)	8mo	$390,000	$253	48
1483 Emma Pl	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-10%)	3mo	$357,500	$279	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $208,294
• Equity at exit: $324,226

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $603,903
• Equity at exit: $699,207

Cash invested: $100,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32163

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,412 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,144/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,169

Max offer price $359,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $396	-5% $294	+0% $192	+5% $90	+10% $-12
Rent	-10% $-78	-5% $57	+0% $192	+5% $327	+10% $461
Rate	-1.0pp $373	-0.5pp $283	base $192	+0.5pp $99	+1.0pp $4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,975
• Closing costs: $10,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1750 Debellis Ln Unit Posted To Internet Sumterville, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$4,250	$2.82	22d	1	0.22mi
5806 Winn Way Unit 1525269P Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,770	$1.14	22d	1	0.80mi
5541 Goodman Ct The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1203	$1,990	$1.65	22d	1	1.08mi
5828 Tupelo Ter Unit Posted to Internet Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.0	1147	$4,500	$3.92	22d	1	1.09mi
2408 Woods Way The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,900	$2.04	22d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $359,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $359,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $359,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $359,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $359,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,900 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,900 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $359,900 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    listed $359,900 Active
17. 2020-03-24
    soldstatus $218,846

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,144 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,144 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,160
• − Property taxes: −$3,144
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,275
• − Management: −$3,275
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$10,470
• Taxable loss: −$3,632
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$872
• After-tax cash flow: $3,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wildwood

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #8500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wildwood, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 21,568
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,549
• Household income: $96,775
• Rent vs Own: 5.7% rent · 94.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.47%
• Current HPI: 229.0075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+64.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $359,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $218,846 Public Records

Property tax history

+40.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,144 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.