5511 Alope Way · Geronimo, TX 78155

$197,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,411 sqft · SingleFamily · 79 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $140/sqft · at area comps Est $201k · at est. $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Idlewood - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owne's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• PRIVATE LOCATION
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.7% in Geronimo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,471 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro Int (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 485 students, 40% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1377 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,896 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.36%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,933
• List price: $197,999
• Delta: -1.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5511 Alope Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,411 (0%)	0mo	$197,999	$140	100
5515 Alope Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-10%)	0mo	$189,999	$150	83
215 Pastar Fls	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-4%)	1mo	$186,999	$138	75
163 Pastar Fls	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+5%)	1mo	$184,999	$125	68
147 Pastar Fls	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+5%)	1mo	$185,999	$125	68
125 Pastar Fls	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+5%)	2mo	$193,999	$131	67
150 Pastar Fls	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+5%)	1mo	$188,999	$127	66
166 Pastar Fls	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+5%)	2mo	$192,999	$130	66
137 Pastar Fls	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+5%)	3mo	$235,999	$159	66
130 Pastar Fls	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+5%)	2mo	$190,999	$129	65
117 Pastar Fls	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+5%)	3mo	$240,999	$163	65
9024 James Bowie	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,217 (-14%)	1mo	$169,500	$139	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-40,574
• Equity at exit: $29,522

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-50,488
• Equity at exit: $17,119

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1377
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,689 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$247 /mo · $2,970/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,827

Max offer price $182,220

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $28	-5% $-41	+0% $-109	+5% $-177	+10% $-246
Rent	-10% $-242	-5% $-176	+0% $-109	+5% $-42	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $-9	-0.5pp $-59	base $-109	+0.5pp $-160	+1.0pp $-213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9272 James Bowie Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	0d	1	0.10mi
9268 James Bowie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,575	$0.97	4d	1	0.11mi
9211 Saint Jerome Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,500	$1.04	0d	1	0.22mi
217 Alligator Crk Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,750	$1.27	45d	1	0.30mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	0d	1	0.30mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	45d	1	0.30mi
5812 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,700	$1.04	0d	1	0.32mi
964 Pastar Crk Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,745	$1.18	0d	1	0.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $197,999 Pending 79 DOM
2. 2026-05-15
   price $199,999 617-char remark

   Show marketing remark (617 chars)

   The Idlewood - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owne's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-05-09
   price $204,999 617-char remark

   Show marketing remark (617 chars)

   The Idlewood - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owne's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-04-30
   price $209,999 617-char remark

   Show marketing remark (617 chars)

   The Idlewood - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owne's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-04-28
   price $213,999 617-char remark

   Show marketing remark (617 chars)

   The Idlewood - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owne's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-04-25
   price $217,999 617-char remark

   Show marketing remark (617 chars)

   The Idlewood - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owne's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

7. 2026-04-17
   price $219,999 617-char remark

   Show marketing remark (617 chars)

   The Idlewood - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owne's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

8. 2026-04-03
   price $234,999 617-char remark

   Show marketing remark (617 chars)

   The Idlewood - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owne's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

9. 2026-03-18
   price $238,999 617-char remark

   Show marketing remark (617 chars)

   The Idlewood - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owne's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

10. 2026-03-12
    listed $239,999 New 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    The Idlewood - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owne's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$2,970
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,621
• − Management: −$1,621
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$4,686
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,125
• After-tax cash flow: $-184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-level home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious open floorplan and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New lighting fixtures throughout — Enhances interior aesthetics and safety

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures throughout — Enhances interior aesthetics and safety ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

Livability — Geronimo

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1471
• US rank: #25174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Geronimo, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $199,999 LERA
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $204,999 LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $209,999 LERA
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $213,999 LERA
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $217,999 LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $219,999 LERA
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $234,999 LERA
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $238,999 LERA
• 2026-03-12 Listed $239,999 LERA