2516 W Elm St · Springfield, MO 65806

$68,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1937 7,405 sqft lot $64/sqft · 69% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single family home will be a great addition to your portfolio. It includes a lovely exterior covered porch, 3 nicely sized bedrooms, a well sized living area, and a kitchen giving extensive growth opportunities. The backyard is large and welcoming for family gatherings and features a shed perfect for additional storage space. This house also includes off street parking.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Shed for storage
• Off street parking

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• LARGE BACKYARD
• SHED FOR STORAGE
• OFF STREET PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.17 acre; Living area approximately 1,064 above-grade square feet
• Financial info: Annual tax information available
• HOA & community: Subdivision: Westport

Exterior

• Parking: Details not provided
• Security: Details not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Built details not provided
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Details not provided
• Bedrooms: Details not provided
• Flooring: Details not provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall furnace; No cooling
• Interior features: No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westport Elem. (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,007 of 1,115 statewide, top 91%, 384 students, 88% FRL); Central High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 1,464 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 46% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 86 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,113/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($28k/yr) (locally 1966% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $470 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,980 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.76%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,599
• List price: $68,000
• Delta: -67.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2223 W Elm St	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	993 (-7%)	1mo	$115,000	$116	72
2634 W Phelps St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,038 (-2%)	3mo	$135,000	$130	70
500 S Warren Ave	0.21mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,000 (-6%)	4mo	$149,900	$150	70
2041 W Elm St	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,028 (-3%)	2mo	$125,000	$122	70
3036 W Water St	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,040 (-2%)	1mo	$135,000	$130	60
2940 W Walnut St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-5%)	3mo	$135,000	$134	59
2919 W Page St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,096 (+3%)	2mo	$176,500	$161	57
2200 W Phelps St	0.53mi	3/1.0	936 (-12%)	0mo	$135,900	$145	55
521 N Park Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	910 (-14%)	1mo	$85,000	$93	48
735 N Brown Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,209 (+14%)	1mo	$115,000	$95	40
717 N West Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	909 (-15%)	0mo	$125,000	$138	40
3035 W College St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,205 (+13%)	4mo	$179,999	$149	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $19,362
• Equity at exit: $10,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.14×
• Total profit: $59,809
• Equity at exit: $5,879

Cash invested: $19,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65806

• Home prices YoY: -11.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,113 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $455/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $535

Max offer price $68,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $495	-5% $476	+0% $456	+5% $437	+10% $418
Rent	-10% $368	-5% $412	+0% $456	+5% $500	+10% $544
Rate	-1.0pp $491	-0.5pp $474	base $456	+0.5pp $439	+1.0pp $421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,000
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2541 W Lincoln St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1034	$975	$0.94	45d	1	0.08mi
2412 W Lincoln St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,295	$1.03	24d	1	0.13mi
2602 W College St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1350	$995	$0.74	14d	1	0.15mi
2854 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	945	$995	$1.05	22d	1	0.45mi
2204 W Madison St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	14d	1	0.52mi
3002 W Elm St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,295	$1.15	22d	1	0.59mi
3028 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$850	$0.87	22d	1	0.64mi
1740 W Olive St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	736	$1,195	$1.62	14d	1	0.66mi
741 N West Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	912	$950	$1.04	45d	1	0.68mi
740 N West Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	24d	1	0.68mi
1020 S Clifton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1010	$950	$0.94	24d	1	0.69mi
1040 S Clifton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1010	$945	$0.94	14d	1	0.75mi
250 N Hilton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1153	$628	$0.54	14d	1	0.85mi
547 S Hilton Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,175	$1.17	45d	1	0.89mi
922 N Glenn Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	780	$1,100	$1.41	45d	1	0.91mi
539 S Fort Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,025	$0.68	14d	1	1.05mi
1152 S Hillcrest Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.5	1240	$1,300	$1.05	45d	1	1.06mi
627 S Fort Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	880	$895	$1.02	24d	1	1.07mi
1200 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$995	$0.99	14d	3	1.12mi
1500 W Grand St Springfield, MO	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1365	$1,395	$1.02	14d	3	1.14mi
1365 S Scenic Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1328	$1,550	$1.17	14d	1	1.14mi
1036 W Monroe Ter Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	812	$795	$0.98	24d	1	1.28mi
513 S Broadway Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$855	$1.07	45d	1	1.29mi
930 W Harrison St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1046	$1,150	$1.10	14d	1	1.35mi
3016 W Hovey St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1059	$1,350	$1.27	45d	1	1.35mi
1406 W Calhoun St Unit B Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	885	$865	$0.98	24d	1	1.43mi
865 S Douglas Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	850	$895	$1.05	14d	4	1.46mi
1625 S Marion Ave Springfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,321	$1.47	14d	5	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $68,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $68,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $68,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $68,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $68,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $68,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $68,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $68,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $68,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $68,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $68,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $68,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $68,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $68,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    price $71,500
16. 2026-01-29
    price $79,000
17. 2025-11-16
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $455 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $660 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$204/yr (+$17/mo · 44.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$455
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,068
• − Management: −$1,068
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $4,636
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,113
• After-tax cash flow: $4,364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 13,692
• Household income: $28,165
• Rent vs Own: 87.3% rent · 12.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1966.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.72%
• Current HPI: 208.8156
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $68,000 SOMO
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $71,500 SOMO
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $79,000 SOMO
• 2025-11-16 Listed $85,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $455 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.