LEXINGTON Plan · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$289,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,785 sqft · SingleFamily · 88 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The open-concept design of the two-story Lexington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room and dining room. The open-feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Lexington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Primary suite
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $303,552.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-236 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $235,656 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.33%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,552
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -4.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7749 Bergamot Cir	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,785 (0%)	0mo	$289,900	$162	96
7819 Bergamot Cir	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,897 (+6%)	1mo	$299,900	$158	85
7950 Alset Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	1,785 (0%)	2mo	$299,900	$168	83
7745 Bergamot Cir	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,678 (-6%)	1mo	$284,900	$170	81
8031 Heroes Hall Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5	1,785 (0%)	0mo	$294,900	$165	81
7823 Bergamot Cir	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,678 (-6%)	1mo	$284,900	$170	80
7827 Bergamot Cir	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,952 (+9%)	1mo	$299,900	$154	75
203 Brazen Forest Trl	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,678 (-6%)	2mo	$279,900	$167	72
209 Valiant Ridge Trl	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,678 (-6%)	2mo	$284,900	$170	68
175 Courageous Side Way	0.44mi	4/2.5	1,666 (-7%)	1mo	$279,900	$168	67
8026 Peppercorn St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,752 (-2%)	2mo	$265,000	$151	66
20 Courageous Side Way	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,708 (-4%)	1mo	$288,990	$169	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $144,132
• Equity at exit: $273,464

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $425,107
• Equity at exit: $589,735

Cash invested: $84,995 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,357 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,592
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$379 /mo · $4,553/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,655

Max offer price $269,388

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-26	-5% $-131	+0% $-236	+5% $-341	+10% $-446
Rent	-10% $-422	-5% $-329	+0% $-236	+5% $-143	+10% $-50
Rate	-1.0pp $-83	-0.5pp $-159	base $-236	+0.5pp $-315	+1.0pp $-395

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,888
• Closing costs: $9,107
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7910 Alset Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1897	$2,320	$1.22	44d	1	0.27mi
139 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,846	$1.22	13d	1	0.42mi
131 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,330	$1.27	5d	1	0.44mi
94 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	5.0	3.0	2517	$2,350	$0.93	44d	1	0.54mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,975	$1.40	24d	1	0.66mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,000	$1.42	44d	1	0.66mi
8344 Bristle Cone Pine Way Magnolia, TX	5.0	2.5	2200	$2,900	$1.32	44d	1	0.71mi
3 Peachridge Pl Unit 1 Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1657	$1,950	$1.18	21d	1	1.32mi
139 Hawkhurst Cir Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2563	$2,950	$1.15	24d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,990 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,990 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    price $289,990 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    The open-concept design of the two-story Lexington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room and dining room. The open-feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Lexington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor.

15. 2026-03-22
    listed $284,990 Active 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    The open-concept design of the two-story Lexington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room and dining room. The open-feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Lexington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,004
• − Property taxes: −$4,553
• − Insurance: −$1,518
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,262
• − Management: −$2,262
• − Depreciation: −$8,831
• Taxable loss: −$8,151
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,956
• After-tax cash flow: $-877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story Lexington home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. The home is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. The highest-ROI updates would be to paint the exterior trim and replace the carpet in the bedrooms.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be replaced with hardwood or tile for a more modern look and easier maintenance.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase home value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be replaced with hardwood or tile for a more modern look and easier maintenance. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase home value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Listed $284,990 Zillow