531 16th St · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$194,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,199 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1894 8,712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming multi-family property, perfectly situated on a double-wide lot! This unique investment opportunity features three apartments: two spacious two-bedroom units and a cozy one-bedroom unit on the top floor. Each apartment boasts ample natural light and a comfortable layout, making them ideal for renters or potential Airbnb guests. The property also includes a convenient driveway in the front, along with a dedicated parking area at the back, accessible via an alleyway. With a little creativity and renovation, this residence could be transformed into a lucrative vacation rental or continue to serve as a reliable income-generating asset. Don't miss out on the potential of this versatile property!

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Built 1894
• Listed 61 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 7.5% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bloneva Bond Primary School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,075 of 2,108 statewide, top 99%, 403 students, 82% FRL); Gaskill Preparatory School (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #702 of 729 statewide, top 96%, 500 students, 78% FRL); Niagara Falls High School (math 75% / reading 92%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,139 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1894 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $183,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1894 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.45%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $127,542
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
444 20th St	0.29mi	5/3.0	2,385 (+8%)	6mo	$25,000	$10	67
1023 15th St	0.46mi	5/4.0	2,304 (+5%)	5mo	$190,000	$82	62
541 20th St	0.26mi	5/2.0	1,917 (-13%)	1mo	$112,000	$58	62
2219 Walnut Ave	0.38mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,023 (-8%)	4mo	$62,500	$31	60
2460 Grand Ave	0.63mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,162 (-2%)	0mo	$175,000	$81	59
2225 Whitney Ave	0.68mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,200 (0%)	3mo	$125,000	$57	57
2401 Whitney Ave	0.73mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,168 (-1%)	2mo	$40,000	$18	53
2409 La Salle Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,154 (-2%)	6mo	$185,000	$86	50
609 24th St	0.49mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-9%)	4mo	$140,000	$70	49
1145 Willow Ave	0.74mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,304 (+5%)	3mo	$53,300	$23	46
2449 Grand Ave	0.60mi	5/2.0	1,918 (-13%)	4mo	$135,000	$70	43
2219 Cudaback Ave	0.59mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-9%)	8mo	$80,000	$40	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $203,776
• Equity at exit: $175,581

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.1%
• Equity multiple: 11.67×
• Total profit: $582,365
• Equity at exit: $378,648

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,406 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$339 /mo · $4,067/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$715
• Net cashflow: $1,249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,826

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,359	-5% $1,304	+0% $1,249	+5% $1,193	+10% $1,138
Rent	-10% $979	-5% $1,114	+0% $1,249	+5% $1,383	+10% $1,518
Rate	-1.0pp $1,347	-0.5pp $1,298	base $1,249	+0.5pp $1,198	+1.0pp $1,147

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,308
1× unit	1	1	$1,099
Total (3 units)			$3,406

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	19d	1	0.50mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   price $194,900
3. 2026-02-04
   listed $199,900 Active
4. 2025-04-07
   soldstatus $155,000 Closed 723-char remark

   Show marketing remark (723 chars)

   Welcome to this charming multi-family property, perfectly situated on a double-wide lot! This unique investment opportunity features three apartments: two spacious two-bedroom units and a cozy one-bedroom unit on the top floor. Each apartment boasts ample natural light and a comfortable layout, making them ideal for renters or potential Airbnb guests. The property also includes a convenient driveway in the front, along with a dedicated parking area at the back, accessible via an alleyway. With a little creativity and renovation, this residence could be transformed into a lucrative vacation rental or continue to serve as a reliable income-generating asset. Don't miss out on the potential of this versatile property!

5. 2025-01-06
   status Pending 723-char remark

   Show marketing remark (723 chars)

   Welcome to this charming multi-family property, perfectly situated on a double-wide lot! This unique investment opportunity features three apartments: two spacious two-bedroom units and a cozy one-bedroom unit on the top floor. Each apartment boasts ample natural light and a comfortable layout, making them ideal for renters or potential Airbnb guests. The property also includes a convenient driveway in the front, along with a dedicated parking area at the back, accessible via an alleyway. With a little creativity and renovation, this residence could be transformed into a lucrative vacation rental or continue to serve as a reliable income-generating asset. Don't miss out on the potential of this versatile property!

6. 2024-12-04
   listed $149,900 Active 723-char remark

   Show marketing remark (723 chars)

   Welcome to this charming multi-family property, perfectly situated on a double-wide lot! This unique investment opportunity features three apartments: two spacious two-bedroom units and a cozy one-bedroom unit on the top floor. Each apartment boasts ample natural light and a comfortable layout, making them ideal for renters or potential Airbnb guests. The property also includes a convenient driveway in the front, along with a dedicated parking area at the back, accessible via an alleyway. With a little creativity and renovation, this residence could be transformed into a lucrative vacation rental or continue to serve as a reliable income-generating asset. Don't miss out on the potential of this versatile property!

7. 2024-08-30
   historical
8. 2024-07-15
   price $164,000
9. 2024-05-30
   listed $169,000 Active
10. 2023-12-01
    historical
11. 2023-08-25
    listed $159,000 Active
12. 2022-12-19
    historical
13. 2022-11-10
    listed $130,000 Active
14. 2021-11-18
    soldstatus $71,000 Closed Sale or Rented
15. 2021-07-28
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
16. 2021-07-14
    listed $79,900 Active
17. 2018-02-12
    soldstatus $59,000 Closed Sale or Rented
18. 2017-12-08
    status Pending Sale
19. 2017-12-05
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
20. 2017-11-14
    listed $62,000 Active
21. 2016-07-06
    soldstatus $54,000 Closed Sale or Rented
22. 2016-06-24
    soldstatus $54,000
23. 2016-05-09
    status Pending Sale
24. 2016-02-26
    listed $54,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,067 · $339/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,067 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$4,067
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,270
• − Management: −$3,270
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable income: $12,703
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,049
• After-tax cash flow: $11,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+255.0% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $194,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-04-07 Sold (MLS) $155,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-01-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2024-12-04 Listed $149,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-08-30 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-07-15 Price Changed $164,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-05-30 Listed $169,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-12-01 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-08-25 Listed $159,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-12-19 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2022-11-10 Listed $130,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-11-18 Sold (MLS) $71,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-07-28 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-07-14 Listed $79,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-02-12 Sold (MLS) $59,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-12-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2017-12-05 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2017-11-14 Listed $62,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-07-06 Sold (MLS) $54,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2016-05-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2016-02-26 Listed $54,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,067 · +39.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.