244 5th St NW · Forest Lake, MN 55025

$299,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,710 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1981 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step outside to a generous deck and patio overlooking the peaceful wetland behind the home ? the perfect spot to unwind. A storage shed and detached garage round out this move-in ready package. Don't miss your chance to enjoy everything Forest Lake living has to offer!

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Deck
• Patio

Tags

• DECK
• PATIO
• WETLAND
• STORAGE SHED
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 1-car garage (16 x 24, 9' door height)
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One level (with lower level/basement)
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Medium tree coverage; City street frontage; Lot approximately 0.342 acres (85 x 174)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (mix of main and lower levels)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath on main level; 1 three-quarter bath in basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full basement; Deck; Patio
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.0% in Forest Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#194 in MN, #4,132 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Forest Lake Public School District (town): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #90 of 301 in MN (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask is 23% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $245k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $233,429 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.64%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-55,151
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-54,350
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55025

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,334 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,132/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,479

Max offer price $279,659

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
525 4th St SW Forest Lake, MN	2.0–3.0	1.0	1070	$1,927	$1.80	1d	10	0.66mi
1081 4th St SW Forest Lake, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	939	$2,455	$2.61	1d	12	0.99mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 269-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $299,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,132 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,245 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: +$113/yr (+$9/mo · 3.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$3,132
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,241
• − Management: −$2,241
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$6,625
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,590
• After-tax cash flow: $215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forest Lake Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2712270
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $75,736
• Composite: 45.24/100
• National rank: #2664
• State rank: #90 of 301 in MN

Livability — Forest Lake

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #194
• US rank: #4132

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forest Lake, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 25,891
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 25,891
• Household income: $98,382
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 420.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -280.92%
• Current HPI: 235.3166
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.33%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+222.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Coming Soon $299,900 WWRA
• 2026-06-17 Coming Soon $299,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-01 Sold (MLS) $245,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-22 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-17 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-24 Listed $244,750 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-04 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-04 Listed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-16 Listed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-10-02 Sold (MLS) $164,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $164,900 Public Records
• 2002-09-18 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-09-08 Listed $164,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $90,500 Public Records
• 1996-04-30 Sold (MLS) $91,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-02-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-01-22 Listed $92,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,132 · -7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.