11778 Casa Grande Dr · Maryland Heights, MO 63146

$184,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,368 sqft · Townhouse public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1968 0.26 ac lot $135/sqft · 23% above area Est $150k · 23% over $498/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Buyer financing fell through. This beautifully updated townhome blends comfort, style, and everyday functionality. Recent enhancements include new flooring, kitchen appliances, modern light fixtures, and fresh paint throughout, creating a move-in-ready experience. The light-filled living room offers a warm and inviting space, seamlessly connecting to a spacious eat-in kitchen complete with stainless steel appliances, a center island with breakfast bar, walk-in pantry, and a built-in desk niche—perfect for work or organization. A charming balcony extends the living space outdoors. Upstairs, the primary suite provides a peaceful retreat with a walk-in closet, built-in desk, and a privat

Key facts

• Kitchen appliances
• Fresh paint
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• MODERN LIGHT FIXTURES
• FRESH PAINT
• LIGHT-FILLED LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS EAT-IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool available
• HOA & community: Member of Villa Dorado community; Monthly association fee of $498; Community amenities include clubhouse, common grounds, playground, pool, and tennis courts; Association fee covers clubhouse, insurance, common area maintenance, management, pool, recreational facilities, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage with 2 spaces; Additional parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Attached townhouse; Two levels; Concrete perimeter foundation; Asphalt roof
• Construction: Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Deck; Balcony; Playground on property; Tennis courts (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Dishwasher; Built-in electric oven; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on upper level)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Kitchen/dining room combo; Pantry; Storage; Walk-in closets; Tilt-in windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-972/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (7.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $171k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Maryland Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#101 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Craig Elem. (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 389 students, 17% FRL); Northeast Middle (math 33% / reading 47%, grade F, #185 of 391 statewide, top 48%, 703 students, 24% FRL); North High (math 35% / reading 70%, grade C-, #89 of 521 statewide, top 17%, 1,074 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $185k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,586 (7.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.88%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,088
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: 23.19%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11825 Villa Dorado Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,368 (0%)	6mo	$179,900	$132	87
1722 Robin Knoll Ct	0.27mi	2/2.5	1,370 (+0%)	4mo	$220,000	$161	84
11983 Villa Dorado Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,368 (0%)	4mo	$149,900	$110	79
1838 Moonstone Dr	0.42mi	2/1.5	1,372 (+0%)	6mo	$209,000	$152	71
11742 Casa Grande Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+10%)	9mo	$178,000	$118	66
11640 Cedar Walk Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,546 (+13%)	1mo	$239,750	$155	61
1842 Moonstone Dr	0.43mi	2/2.5	1,264 (-8%)	8mo	$220,000	$174	60
11973 Villa Dorado Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,512 (+10%)	10mo	$184,500	$122	57
11628 Misty Moss Ct	0.32mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,280 (-6%)	15mo	$202,000	$158	57
11612 Misty Moss Ct	0.33mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,515 (+11%)	8mo	$214,900	$142	55
11652 Cedar Walk	0.32mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,203 (-12%)	12mo	$198,900	$165	50
11539 Sandy View Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+14%)	7mo	$250,000	$160	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $89,872
• Equity at exit: $166,573

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $258,620
• Equity at exit: $359,220

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63146

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,030 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,684/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$498
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,133

Max offer price $170,586

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $24	-5% $-29	+0% $-81	+5% $-133	+10% $-186
Rent	-10% $-241	-5% $-161	+0% $-81	+5% $-1	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $12	-0.5pp $-34	base $-81	+0.5pp $-129	+1.0pp $-178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11752 Russet Meadow Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,000	$1.27	5d	1	0.17mi
11864 Featherwood Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1460	$2,600	$1.78	0d	1	0.19mi
1638 Prestonpark Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1734	$2,610	$1.51	45d	1	0.70mi
12401 Boulder Springs Pkwy St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$2,308	$2.29	0d	10	0.94mi
11164 De Malle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1146	$2,475	$2.16	13d	1	1.01mi
1895 Boulder Springs Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1083	$2,354	$2.17	0d	6	1.02mi
1380 Willow Brook Cove Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	910	$1,550	$1.70	16d	1	1.25mi
12465 Larkwood Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1563	$2,131	$1.36	0d	1	1.27mi
1434 Willow Brook Cove Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	910	$1,395	$1.53	45d	1	1.31mi
1432 Glenmeade Dr Maryland Heights, MO	3.0	2.0	1090	$2,176	$2.00	12d	1	1.33mi
1007 E Rue De La Banque Creve Coeur, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,425	$1.78	0d	4	1.35mi
1951 Oberlin Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	993	$1,684	$1.70	0d	24	1.42mi
10900 Oak Forest Pkwy Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	5d	6	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $498 · $5,976/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $184,900 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   status $184,900 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-05-02
    historical Active Under Contract 1234-char remark
11. 2026-04-30
    listed $184,900 Active 1234-char remark
12. 2000-10-03
    soldstatus $109,500
13. 1995-10-30
    soldstatus $81,900
14. 1995-08-03
    soldstatus $45,000
15. 1995-08-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,684 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,794 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$110/yr (+$9/mo · 6.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$1,684
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,949
• − Management: −$1,949
• − HOA: −$5,976
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$3,855
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$925
• After-tax cash flow: $-47/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parkway C-2
• NCES district ID: 2923580
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $83,551
• Composite: 50.5/100
• National rank: #1851
• State rank: #18 of 324 in MO

Livability — Maryland Heights

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #6808

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 21,924
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,678
• Household income: $84,756
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1156.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Asian 17% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.10%
• Current HPI: 711.49
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+310.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-29 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $184,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $109,500 Public Records
• 1995-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $81,900 Public Records
• 1995-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1995-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,684 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.