8641 Fancy Finch Dr # 104 Dr · Egypt Lake-Leto, FL 33614

$5,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 684 sqft · Condo public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1988

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Buyers Finance Fell Through! Back on the Market! Welcome to this Gorgeous, Newly Renovated, 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom condo here at The Grand Reserve Condominiums in Tampa. Newly installed and Permitted Electrical Panel and Air conditioner. New water heater. New cabinets. New kitchen counter top and sink. Water filter for entire condo. Beautiful bathroom with Mosaic tiles on the shower floor. Stainless steel appliances. Vinyl plank waterproof floors throughout and located on the 1st floor with an over-sized balcony w/storage room with lake & conservation views. Located on the largest lake in the community with exceptional views. Extremely relaxing water sounds with the views to match. Relaxing bedroom, kitchen and living room views of the lake at almost every view point in the condo. The Grand Reserve Condominiums in Tampa is a gated community with active security guards and with excellent amenities from a resort style swimming Pool & Spa, cabanas, gazebo, lighted Tennis courts, Clubhouse, Gym Center, on site laundry facility ,and walking trails. You are just South of Carrollwood and minutes away from the heart of shopping, resturants, arts & culture, Downtown Tampa, Veterans and 275, Raymond J. Stadium, Tampa International Airport and a quick drive to the gorgous Gulf coast beaches and St. Petersburg. A must see! You may rent it for around $1300 a month!

Key facts

• Built 1988
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Condominium, single-story
• Construction: Built on standard foundation
• Exterior features: Planned development (PD) zoning

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One-story interior

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $5k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $35 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $150 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 25.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 136.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 466.63%
• DSCR: 21.76
• GRM: 0.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.69×
• Total profit: $30,364
• Equity at exit: $746

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 42.16×
• Total profit: $57,622
• Equity at exit: $432

Cash invested: $1,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33614

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 0.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,294 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $75/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$443
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $604

Max offer price $5,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $548	-5% $546	+0% $544	+5% $543	+10% $541
Rent	-10% $442	-5% $493	+0% $544	+5% $596	+10% $647
Rate	-1.0pp $547	-0.5pp $546	base $544	+0.5pp $543	+1.0pp $542

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,250
• Closing costs: $150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8603 Fancy Finch Dr Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	581	$1,200	$2.07	19d	1	0.11mi
8602 Champlain Ct Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	710	$1,225	$1.73	12d	1	0.45mi
8534 Channelview Cir Unit 8534 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,295	$2.25	19d	1	0.47mi
8534 Channelview Cir Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,295	$2.25	4d	1	0.47mi
3832 N Lake Dr #116 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	682	$1,600	$2.35	0d	1	0.47mi
8602 Champlain Ct #88 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	710	$1,225	$1.73	21d	1	0.49mi
8605 Huron Ct #34 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	710	$1,500	$2.11	2d	1	0.57mi
4747 W Waters Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$1,515	$1.35	0d	33	0.58mi
4107 Chatham Oak Ct #307 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	738	$1,250	$1.69	6d	1	0.78mi
4211 Chatham Oak Ct Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	665	$1,472	$2.21	0d	3	0.79mi
8730 N Himes Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	821	$1,156	$1.41	16d	15	0.86mi
10114 Winsford Oak Blvd #525 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	738	$1,450	$1.96	25d	1	0.86mi
8433 Sycamore Tree Dr Apt 201 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	710	$1,200	$1.69	15d	1	0.95mi
4302 Gunn Hwy Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	817	$1,399	$1.71	0d	12	1.01mi
3516 Grand Cayman Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$1,397	$1.44	0d	170	1.03mi
8421 Del Lago Cir Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	1012	$1,759	$1.74	6d	1	1.17mi
8781 White Swan Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,311	$1.69	0d	15	1.28mi
10453 Carrollbrook Cir Tampa, FL	—	1.0	543	$1,195	$2.20	4d	1	1.29mi
3445 Carlton Arms Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	875	$1,171	$1.34	0d	23	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectricpoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $5,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $5,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $5,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $5,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $5,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   remarks 298-char remark
7. 2026-06-01
   listed $5,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$280
• − Property taxes: −$75
• − Insurance: −$25
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,242
• − Management: −$1,242
• − HOA: −$5,316
• − Depreciation: −$145
• Taxable income: $7,198
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,728
• After-tax cash flow: $4,805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Egypt Lake-Leto

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Egypt Lake-Leto, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 47,298
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,298
• Household income: $50,232
• Rent vs Own: 56.8% rent · 43.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3363.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 37% White 18% Black 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 32% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 44% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 58% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.33%
• Current HPI: 498.3567
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.24%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-77.9% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $5,000 NFMLS
• 2022-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-08 Sold (MLS) $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-08 Sold (MLS) $165,000 Beaches MLS
• 2022-08-29 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2022-08-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-12 Price Changed $160,000 Beaches MLS
• 2022-08-12 Price Changed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-12 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2022-07-05 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2022-07-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-29 Price Changed $155,000 Beaches MLS
• 2022-06-29 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-26 Listed $169,000 Beaches MLS
• 2022-06-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-03 Listed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-05 Sold (MLS) $25,379 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-26 Listed $22,600 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,205 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.