1016 Wind Drift Way · Fort Worth, TX 76131

$317,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · Other · 220 Days on market

Built 2025 6,000 sqft lot $225/sqft · at area comps Est $327k · at est. $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Aspen is a 1-story single-family home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with an island kitchen, spacious dining area, and large laundry room.

Key facts

• Large center island
• Gourmet kitchen
• 42 cabinets

Tags

• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• 42 CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BOX WINDOW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $318k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-169 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,637 (30.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.28%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,961
• List price: $317,990
• Delta: -2.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-68,928
• Equity at exit: $47,413

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-99,545
• Equity at exit: $27,494

Cash invested: $89,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76131

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,668
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $887/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,430

Max offer price $288,125

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11	-5% $-79	+0% $-169	+5% $-259	+10% $-349
Rent	-10% $-344	-5% $-257	+0% $-169	+5% $-82	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-9	-0.5pp $-88	base $-169	+0.5pp $-251	+1.0pp $-335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,498
• Closing costs: $9,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9945 Fighting Falcon Way Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,300	$1.44	5d	1	0.25mi
1305 Wind Drift Way Fort Worth, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1838	$2,285	$1.24	2d	1	0.30mi
1360 Bullnose Way Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,505	$1.90	8d	1	0.33mi
10441 Evening View Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$2,175	$1.20	44d	1	0.72mi
10516 Turning Leaf Trl Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,025	$1.32	20d	1	0.75mi
509 White Bud Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,400	$1.35	44d	1	0.75mi
10205 Pyrite Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$1,950	$1.12	13d	1	0.81mi
10469 Winding Passage Way Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,100	$1.24	8d	1	0.82mi
421 Goldstone Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,300	$1.44	44d	1	0.84mi
10649 Fossil Hill Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1626	$2,091	$1.29	12d	1	0.84mi
433 Magma Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1732	$1,995	$1.15	6d	1	0.84mi
10013 Amosite Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1641	$2,100	$1.28	25d	1	0.85mi
9913 Amosite Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,995	$1.41	2d	1	0.87mi
9913 Amosite Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,995	$1.41	8d	1	0.87mi
304 Chert Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$1,950	$1.07	25d	1	0.94mi
624 Caravan Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,000	$1.35	21d	1	0.95mi
10009 Calcite Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1732	$1,970	$1.14	16d	1	0.95mi
417 Destin Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$2,500	$1.33	12d	1	0.97mi
9504 Drifting Sand Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,375	$1.29	25d	1	1.01mi
10708 Braemoor Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,850	$1.21	44d	1	1.02mi
265 Olympia Marble Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1784	$2,200	$1.23	25d	1	1.02mi
429 Sandy Creek Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1679	$1,999	$1.19	44d	1	1.07mi
9301 Hill Topper Trl Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,175	$1.18	18d	1	1.08mi
557 Winbridge Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1645	$1,995	$1.21	5d	1	1.16mi
8556 Dunnstown Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1819	$2,275	$1.25	13d	1	1.16mi
556 Winbridge Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,050	$1.17	21d	1	1.19mi
316 Lead Creek Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,150	$1.42	44d	1	1.19mi
420 Donagon Ct Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,150	$1.32	44d	1	1.21mi
10904 Rising Mist Ct Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1329	$1,895	$1.43	8d	1	1.26mi
10908 Middleglen Rd Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1773	$2,095	$1.18	44d	1	1.31mi
8437 Hollymead Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1819	$2,350	$1.29	25d	1	1.32mi
637 Cofer Way Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,299	$1.59	5d	1	1.33mi
8708 Boulder Oak Blvd Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1584	$2,600	$1.64	25d	1	1.37mi
8368 Beltmill Pkwy Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$2,365	$1.26	25d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $317,990 Pending 220 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $317,990 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   pricedays on market $317,990 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $318,990 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $318,990 Active 216 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $318,990 Active 215 DOM
7. 2026-04-25
   price $318,990 148-char remark

   Show marketing remark (148 chars)

   The Aspen is a 1-story single-family home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with an island kitchen, spacious dining area, and large laundry room.

8. 2026-04-23
   price $318,990 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Welcome to The Retreat at Fossil Creek, one of Legend's newest communities in Fort Worth, TX! The Aspen floorplan is a charming 1-story home and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage! This home has it all, including vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with a large center island overlooking the dining and family rooms, 42” cabinets, granite countertops, and a box window at the dining area! Retreat to the Owner’s Suite featuring a beautiful bay window, a tub with shower combo, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with a covered patio! Don’t miss your opportunity to call The Retreat at Fossil Creek home, schedule a visit today!

9. 2026-04-04
   price $319,890 148-char remark

   Show marketing remark (148 chars)

   The Aspen is a 1-story single-family home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with an island kitchen, spacious dining area, and large laundry room.

10. 2026-04-02
    price $319,980 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    Welcome to The Retreat at Fossil Creek, one of Legend's newest communities in Fort Worth, TX! The Aspen floorplan is a charming 1-story home and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage! This home has it all, including vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with a large center island overlooking the dining and family rooms, 42” cabinets, granite countertops, and a box window at the dining area! Retreat to the Owner’s Suite featuring a beautiful bay window, a tub with shower combo, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with a covered patio! Don’t miss your opportunity to call The Retreat at Fossil Creek home, schedule a visit today!

11. 2026-03-22
    price $319,990 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    The Aspen is a 1-story single-family home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with an island kitchen, spacious dining area, and large laundry room.

12. 2026-03-20
    price $319,990 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    Welcome to The Retreat at Fossil Creek, one of Legend's newest communities in Fort Worth, TX! The Aspen floorplan is a charming 1-story home and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage! This home has it all, including vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with a large center island overlooking the dining and family rooms, 42” cabinets, granite countertops, and a box window at the dining area! Retreat to the Owner’s Suite featuring a beautiful bay window, a tub with shower combo, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with a covered patio! Don’t miss your opportunity to call The Retreat at Fossil Creek home, schedule a visit today!

13. 2026-01-04
    price $334,890 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    The Aspen is a 1-story single-family home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with an island kitchen, spacious dining area, and large laundry room.

14. 2026-01-02
    price $334,890 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    Welcome to The Retreat at Fossil Creek, one of Legend's newest communities in Fort Worth, TX! The Aspen floorplan is a charming 1-story home and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage! This home has it all, including vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with a large center island overlooking the dining and family rooms, 42” cabinets, granite countertops, and a box window at the dining area! Retreat to the Owner’s Suite featuring a beautiful bay window, a tub with shower combo, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with a covered patio! Don’t miss your opportunity to call The Retreat at Fossil Creek home, schedule a visit today!

15. 2025-11-19
    price $329,890 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    The Aspen is a 1-story single-family home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with an island kitchen, spacious dining area, and large laundry room.

16. 2025-11-17
    price $329,890 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    Welcome to The Retreat at Fossil Creek, one of Legend's newest communities in Fort Worth, TX! The Aspen floorplan is a charming 1-story home and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage! This home has it all, including vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with a large center island overlooking the dining and family rooms, 42” cabinets, granite countertops, and a box window at the dining area! Retreat to the Owner’s Suite featuring a beautiful bay window, a tub with shower combo, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with a covered patio! Don’t miss your opportunity to call The Retreat at Fossil Creek home, schedule a visit today!

17. 2025-10-28
    listed $329,990 Active 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    Welcome to The Retreat at Fossil Creek, one of Legend's newest communities in Fort Worth, TX! The Aspen floorplan is a charming 1-story home and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage! This home has it all, including vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with a large center island overlooking the dining and family rooms, 42” cabinets, granite countertops, and a box window at the dining area! Retreat to the Owner’s Suite featuring a beautiful bay window, a tub with shower combo, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with a covered patio! Don’t miss your opportunity to call The Retreat at Fossil Creek home, schedule a visit today!

18. 2025-10-28
    historical

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    Welcome to The Retreat at Fossil Creek, one of Legend's newest communities in Fort Worth, TX! The Aspen floorplan is a charming 1-story home and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage! This home has it all, including vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with a large center island overlooking the dining and family rooms, 42” cabinets, granite countertops, and a box window at the dining area! Retreat to the Owner’s Suite featuring a beautiful bay window, a tub with shower combo, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with a covered patio! Don’t miss your opportunity to call The Retreat at Fossil Creek home, schedule a visit today!

19. 2025-08-20
    listed $329,990 Active 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    The Aspen is a 1-story single-family home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with an island kitchen, spacious dining area, and large laundry room.

20. 2025-07-19
    price $329,990
21. 2025-06-23
    listed $333,114 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $887 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,819 · $485/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,932/yr (+$411/mo · 556.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,812
• − Property taxes: −$887
• − Insurance: −$1,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,128
• − Management: −$2,128
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$9,251
• Taxable loss: −$7,751
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,860
• After-tax cash flow: $-168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 56,322
• Household income: $108,694
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1805.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, India
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 6% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.06%
• Current HPI: 249.22
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.17%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $318,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $318,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $319,890 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $319,980 NTREIS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $319,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $319,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $334,890 Zillow
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $334,890 NTREIS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $329,890 Zillow
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $329,890 NTREIS
• 2025-10-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $329,990 NTREIS
• 2025-08-20 Listed $329,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $329,990 NTREIS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $333,114 NTREIS