Carmel Plan · Huffman, TX 77336

$221,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,717 sqft · SingleFamily · 201 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-level home provides ample space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, dining area and family room, with convenient access to a covered patio for seamless entertaining and relaxation. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the foyer, and the luxe owner's suite is tucked away into a private corner at the back of the home, offering direct access to an en-suite bathroom and roomy walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Pickleball court
• Swimming pool
• Huffman isd schools

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• WALKING TRAILS
• PICKLEBALL COURT
• HUFFMAN ISD SCHOOLS

🏗️ New construction. The $221,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $273,261.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $222k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-386 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 857 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $190,189 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.05%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,261
• List price: $221,990
• Delta: -18.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
702 Zuppino Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+0%)	1mo	$199,990	$116	83
31521 Pianella Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+0%)	1mo	$190,990	$111	81
31509 Olivella Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+2%)	1mo	$199,990	$114	80
713 Pennabilli Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+2%)	1mo	$195,990	$111	77
31514 Pianella Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+2%)	2mo	$209,990	$119	76
703 Pennabilli Ln	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+2%)	1mo	$224,990	$128	75
31508 San Floro Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+10%)	2mo	$249,991	$133	73
718 Rosa Bianca Way	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-8%)	0mo	$207,990	$132	70
31506 Pianella Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-11%)	1mo	$167,991	$110	67
926 Capracotta Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-15%)	1mo	$167,991	$115	64
930 Capracotta Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-15%)	2mo	$187,990	$129	63
712 Rosa Bianca Way	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,875 (+9%)	1mo	$259,990	$139	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-68,833
• Equity at exit: $40,744

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-91,474
• Equity at exit: $23,627

Cash invested: $76,513 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 85 active · 97 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.1 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $215,990 ($129/sqft)
• Median days on market: 61 d
• This list price: 55% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +23.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 857
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,902 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,433
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,099/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,390

Max offer price $217,413

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-197	-5% $-292	+0% $-386	+5% $-480	+10% $-575
Rent	-10% $-536	-5% $-461	+0% $-386	+5% $-311	+10% $-236
Rate	-1.0pp $-248	-0.5pp $-316	base $-386	+0.5pp $-457	+1.0pp $-529

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,315
• Closing costs: $8,198
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
917 Capracotta Dr Huffman, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,800	$1.09	7d	1	0.20mi
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,599	$1.09	69d	1	0.28mi
935 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1189	$1,850	$1.56	11d	1	0.29mi
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,699	$1.25	11d	1	0.30mi
31208 Piccolo Fiore Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,695	$1.16	10d	1	0.30mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $221,990 Active 201 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $221,990 Active 200 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $221,990 Active 199 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $221,990 Active 198 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $221,990 Active 197 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $221,990 Active 196 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $221,990 Active 195 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $221,990 Active 194 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $221,990 Active 193 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $221,990 Active 192 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    price $221,990 Active 191 DOM
12. 2026-09-14
    days on market $220,990 Active 191 DOM
13. 2026-09-13
    days on market $220,990 Active 190 DOM
14. 2026-09-12
    pricedays on market $220,990 Active 189 DOM
15. 2026-09-11
    days on market $225,990 Active 188 DOM
16. 2026-09-05
    days on market $225,990 Active 182 DOM
17. 2026-09-04
    days on market $225,990 Active 181 DOM
18. 2026-09-02
    days on market $225,990 Active 179 DOM
19. 2026-08-31
    days on market $225,990 Active 177 DOM
20. 2026-08-30
    days on market $225,990 Active 176 DOM
21. 2026-08-29
    days on market $225,990 Active 175 DOM
22. 2026-08-28
    days on market $225,990 Active 174 DOM
23. 2026-08-27
    days on market $225,990 Active 173 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $225,990 Active 171 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $225,990 Active 170 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $225,990 Active 169 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $225,990 Active 168 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $225,990 Active 167 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $225,990 Active 166 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $225,990 Active 165 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $225,990 Active 164 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $225,990 Active 163 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $225,990 Active 162 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $225,990 Active 161 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    pricedays on market $225,990 Active 160 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $230,990 Active 159 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $230,990 Active 158 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $230,990 Active 157 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $230,990 Active 156 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $230,990 Active 155 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    pricedays on market $230,990 Active 154 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $235,990 Active 152 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    price $235,990 Active 151 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $240,990 Active 151 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $240,990 Active 150 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $240,990 Active 149 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $240,990 Active 146 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $240,990 Active 144 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $240,990 Active 143 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $240,990 Active 141 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,307
• − Property taxes: −$4,099
• − Insurance: −$1,366
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,826
• − Management: −$1,826
• − Depreciation: −$7,949
• Taxable loss: −$9,550
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,292
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,585–$25,755 screening

This single-level home offers a good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can add value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps the property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Huffman Middle F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Hargrave H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Huffman

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Listed $280,990 Zillow