421 38th St · Columbus, GA 31904

$32,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 725 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 258 Days on market

Built 1943 5,663 sqft lot $44/sqft · 42% below area Est $55k · 42% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Opportunity! Please see property facts for more information.

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Listed 258 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $482 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($904 rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.4% vs local median 4.7% in Columbus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#254 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities D+, schools F, crime F.
• Muscogee County (urban): math 21% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #120 of 174 in GA (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 291 units permitted in Muscogee County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $221 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $960 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Muscogee County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 258 days — a 12% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 258 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.58%
• DSCR: 3.87
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $55,080
• List price: $32,000
• Delta: -41.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3918 Maple Cir	0.15mi	2/1.0	725 (0%)	16mo	$41,183	$57	80
421 Wilton St	0.21mi	2/1.0	725 (0%)	18mo	$82,500	$114	75
727 Apex Rd	0.28mi	2/1.0	791 (+9%)	9mo	$42,800	$54	64
17 29th St	0.66mi	1/1.0 (-1)	728 (+0%)	6mo	$75,000	$103	58
2611 4th Ave	0.72mi	1/1.0 (-1)	735 (+1%)	18mo	$68,000	$93	44
2810 1st Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0	821 (+13%)	15mo	$137,000	$167	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $25,582
• Equity at exit: $4,771

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.93×
• Total profit: $62,054
• Equity at exit: $2,767

Cash invested: $8,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31904

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $904 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$168
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $611/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $294

Max offer price $32,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,000
• Closing costs: $960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
617 32nd St Columbus, GA	2.0	1.0	600	$650	$1.08	13d	1	0.35mi
608 32nd St Columbus, GA	1.0	1.0	644	$650	$1.01	13d	1	0.38mi
1051 43rd St Apt D Columbus, GA	1.0	1.0	600	$750	$1.25	43d	1	0.71mi
1344 24th St Columbus, GA	2.0	1.0	750	$775	$1.03	21d	1	1.27mi
2703 17th Ave Unit B Columbus, GA	1.0	1.0	644	$700	$1.09	43d	1	1.32mi
3011 18th Ave Apt F Columbus, GA	2.0	1.0	750	$700	$0.93	43d	1	1.34mi
3011 18th Ave Apt D Columbus, GA	1.0	1.0	450	$650	$1.44	43d	1	1.34mi
4402 Riverchase Dr Phenix City, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$1,538	$1.43	13d	21	1.43mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $32,000 Pending 258 DOM
2. 2025-10-30
   price $48,000
3. 2023-10-28
   historical $625
4. 2023-10-05
   listed $625
5. 2013-10-24
   soldstatus $28,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $611 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $611 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,792
• − Property taxes: −$611
• − Insurance: −$160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$868
• − Management: −$868
• − Depreciation: −$931
• Taxable income: $5,619
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,349
• After-tax cash flow: $4,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Muscogee County
• NCES district ID: 1303870
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,176
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8297
• State rank: #120 of 174 in GA

Livability — Columbus

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #14102

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbus, GA
• County: Muscogee County · 180,764 people
• City population: 180,764
• Metro: Columbus, GA-AL
• Population (ZIP): 35,405
• Household income: $66,291
• Rent vs Own: 48.2% rent · 51.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2030.0

Population outlook (Muscogee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 216,729 people
• By 2030: 224,504 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 238,318 · +10.0%
• By 2050: 249,027 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 264,862 · +22.2%
• By 2100: 254,786 · +17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 28% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Muscogee

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 61.4% · R 38.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.7pp toward D · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+18.6 2012: D+21.3 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.06%
• Current HPI: 155.1405
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Columbus, GA-AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $48,000 CBOR
• 2023-10-28 Rental Removed $625 APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-05 Listed for Rent $625 APPFOLIO
• 2013-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $28,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $611 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.