Dowing Plan · Brookshire, TX 77423

$265,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,924 sqft · SingleFamily · 264 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Lavish owner's suite
• Single-story living
• Full bathroom

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LAVISH OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $265,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $335,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $266k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-467 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1235 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $234,071 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.95%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,990
• List price: $265,990
• Delta: -20.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3053 Helios Haven Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,035 (+6%)	0mo	$322,670	$159	87
3005 Helios Hvn	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,035 (+6%)	2mo	$314,670	$155	86
3032 Helios Haven Dr	0.14mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,942 (+1%)	1mo	$279,990	$144	86
1040 Star Skye Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0	1,912 (-1%)	1mo	$341,040	$178	82
3101 Duskshine Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (-2%)	0mo	$296,990	$158	71
1020 Star Skye Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,769 (-8%)	0mo	$307,040	$174	71
3093 Duskshine Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,876 (-2%)	1mo	$325,990	$174	70
1084 Sunlit Cir	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,012 (+5%)	1mo	$309,900	$154	69
3048 Helios Haven Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,170 (+13%)	2mo	$324,990	$150	68
1012 Sunlit Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,769 (-8%)	1mo	$303,490	$172	64
3081 Duskshine Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-7%)	2mo	$338,990	$189	62
1104 Sunlit Cir	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,786 (-7%)	1mo	$299,900	$168	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-91,023
• Equity at exit: $50,097

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-143,997
• Equity at exit: $29,050

Cash invested: $94,077 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 111 active · 41 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.8 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $322,990 ($164/sqft)
• Median days on market: 134 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1235
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,348 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,762
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$420 /mo · $5,040/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,939

Max offer price $268,442

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-235	-5% $-351	+0% $-467	+5% $-583	+10% $-699
Rent	-10% $-652	-5% $-560	+0% $-467	+5% $-374	+10% $-281
Rate	-1.0pp $-298	-0.5pp $-381	base $-467	+0.5pp $-554	+1.0pp $-642

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,998
• Closing costs: $10,080
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $265,990 Active 264 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $265,990 Active 262 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $265,990 Active 261 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $265,990 Active 260 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $265,990 Active 259 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $265,990 Active 256 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $265,990 Active 254 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $265,990 Active 253 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $265,990 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $265,990 Active 249 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $265,990 Active 248 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $265,990 Active 247 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $265,990 Active 246 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $265,990 Active 245 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $265,990 Active 243 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $265,990 Active 242 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $265,990 Active 241 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $265,990 Active 240 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $265,990 Active 239 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $265,990 Active 238 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $265,990 Active 237 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $265,990 Active 236 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $265,990 Active 235 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $265,990 Active 234 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    price $265,990 Active 232 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $275,990 Active 232 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $275,990 Active 231 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $275,990 Active 230 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $275,990 Active 229 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $275,990 Active 228 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $275,990 Active 227 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $275,990 Active 226 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $275,990 Active 225 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $275,990 Active 224 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $275,990 Active 223 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $275,990 Active 222 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $275,990 Active 221 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $275,990 Active 219 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $275,990 Active 217 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $275,990 Active 216 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $328,990 Active 213 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $328,990 Active 212 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $328,990 Active 211 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $328,990 Active 210 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $328,990 Active 208 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $328,990 Active 204 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $328,990 Active 203 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $328,990 Active 202 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $328,990 Active 199 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $328,990 Active 198 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,821
• − Property taxes: −$5,040
• − Insurance: −$1,680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,254
• − Management: −$2,254
• − Depreciation: −$9,774
• Taxable loss: −$11,644
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,795
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,620–$28,860 screening

This single-story home offers a good condition with a modern and inviting interior. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase resale value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Enhances the overall aesthetic and can increase resale value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal El F TX #3,247/4,322 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-17 Listed $328,990 Zillow