4948 Kaia · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$281,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · Land · 165 Days on market

Built 2025 4,400 sqft lot $203/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The property is located at 4948 Kaia Avenue WINTER HAVEN FL 33884 priced at 284590, the square foot and stories are 1665, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

• Inviting foyer
• Large windows
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE AND TILE FLOORS
• INVITING FOYER
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE WINDOWS
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Builder license number: CBC1252212
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,529; Tax year 2025 (annual amount reported); Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $203.15 (association: Prime Community Management); Community amenities include pool, playground, dog park, sidewalks and street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; BB/HS Internet available; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Under construction (projected completion March 9, 2026); North facing
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction (builder: D.R. Horton, model: Harper G)
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan with living room/dining room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer hookups; Electric dryer hookup; Washer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $282k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-347 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chain of Lakes Elementary School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 1,130 students, 37% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 689 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $215,779 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.28%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-70,053
• Equity at exit: $42,032

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-98,558
• Equity at exit: $24,374

Cash invested: $78,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 689
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,158 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,478
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,036/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$203
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,597

Max offer price $220,583

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-188	-5% $-267	+0% $-347	+5% $-427	+10% $-507
Rent	-10% $-518	-5% $-432	+0% $-347	+5% $-262	+10% $-177
Rate	-1.0pp $-205	-0.5pp $-275	base $-347	+0.5pp $-420	+1.0pp $-494

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,475
• Closing costs: $8,457
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4973 Kaia Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,900	$1.28	5d	1	0.06mi
3436 Costello Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,750	$1.16	5d	1	0.07mi
4981 Kaia Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,875	$1.48	21d	1	0.07mi
3511 Costello Cir Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2234	$2,100	$0.94	25d	1	0.10mi
3912 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,900	$1.28	23d	1	0.12mi
3889 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,000	$1.35	25d	1	0.12mi
3916 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,695	$1.32	5d	1	0.13mi
3905 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1707	$2,050	$1.20	5d	1	0.15mi
6472 Domizio Dr Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,300	$1.09	25d	1	0.17mi
6428 Domizio Dr Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,200	$1.04	25d	1	0.18mi
2772 San Marco Way Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	1988	$2,200	$1.11	25d	1	0.22mi
4506 Rapallo Ave Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1754	$1,899	$1.08	25d	1	0.25mi
4458 Rapallo Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1568	$2,000	$1.28	25d	1	0.28mi
4442 Rapallo Ave Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	25d	1	0.29mi
3063 Laurel Oak Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,695	$1.34	25d	1	0.37mi
3063 Laurel Oak Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,695	$1.34	16d	1	0.37mi
2107 Cartgate Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2217	$2,600	$1.17	25d	1	0.47mi
2116 Cartgate Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2217	$2,500	$1.13	25d	1	0.48mi
1734 Carnostie Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,050	$1.45	25d	1	0.49mi
1735 Carnostie Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,900	$1.25	25d	1	0.50mi
632 Vittorio Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1597	$1,895	$1.19	25d	1	0.56mi
1310 Benevento Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1964	$2,500	$1.27	25d	1	0.58mi
1343 Benevento Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1849	$2,000	$1.08	16d	1	0.60mi
1002 Corso Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,945	$1.26	25d	1	0.64mi
397 Corso Loop Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,395	$1.29	5d	1	0.77mi
850 Terranova Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1770	$2,176	$1.23	5d	1	0.90mi
810 Terranova Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2056	$1,900	$0.92	25d	1	0.92mi
554 Reddicks Cir Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	12d	1	1.02mi
670 Eagle Landing Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,999	$1.35	5d	1	1.25mi
219 Cloverdale Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,300	$1.24	25d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $203 · $2,436/yr

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $281,900 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $281,900 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $281,900 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $281,900 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $281,900 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $281,900 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $283,900 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $281,900 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $281,900 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $281,900 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $281,900 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $281,900 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $281,900 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $281,900 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $284,590
16. 2026-05-06
    price $284,590 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    The property is located at 4948 Kaia Avenue WINTER HAVEN FL 33884 priced at 284590, the square foot and stories are 1665, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

17. 2026-04-28
    price $283,590 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    The property is located at 4948 Kaia Avenue WINTER HAVEN FL 33884 priced at 284590, the square foot and stories are 1665, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

18. 2026-04-27
    price $283,590
19. 2026-04-17
    price $280,590
20. 2026-04-09
    price $280,590 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    The property is located at 4948 Kaia Avenue WINTER HAVEN FL 33884 priced at 284590, the square foot and stories are 1665, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

21. 2026-01-07
    price $283,490
22. 2026-01-07
    listed $285,990 Active
23. 2026-01-03
    status Active 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    The property is located at 4948 Kaia Avenue WINTER HAVEN FL 33884 priced at 284590, the square foot and stories are 1665, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

24. 2025-11-18
    historical 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    The property is located at 4948 Kaia Avenue WINTER HAVEN FL 33884 priced at 284590, the square foot and stories are 1665, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

25. 2025-11-07
    price $283,490 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    The property is located at 4948 Kaia Avenue WINTER HAVEN FL 33884 priced at 284590, the square foot and stories are 1665, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

26. 2025-11-07
    price $285,990 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    The property is located at 4948 Kaia Avenue WINTER HAVEN FL 33884 priced at 284590, the square foot and stories are 1665, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

27. 2025-11-07
    price $283,490 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    The property is located at 4948 Kaia Avenue WINTER HAVEN FL 33884 priced at 284590, the square foot and stories are 1665, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

28. 2025-11-05
    price $285,990 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    The property is located at 4948 Kaia Avenue WINTER HAVEN FL 33884 priced at 284590, the square foot and stories are 1665, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

29. 2025-10-29
    price $288,490 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    The property is located at 4948 Kaia Avenue WINTER HAVEN FL 33884 priced at 284590, the square foot and stories are 1665, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

30. 2025-10-29
    price $290,990 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    The property is located at 4948 Kaia Avenue WINTER HAVEN FL 33884 priced at 284590, the square foot and stories are 1665, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

31. 2025-10-29
    price $288,490 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    The property is located at 4948 Kaia Avenue WINTER HAVEN FL 33884 priced at 284590, the square foot and stories are 1665, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

32. 2025-10-18
    price $290,990 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    The property is located at 4948 Kaia Avenue WINTER HAVEN FL 33884 priced at 284590, the square foot and stories are 1665, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

33. 2025-09-26
    price $297,990 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    The property is located at 4948 Kaia Avenue WINTER HAVEN FL 33884 priced at 284590, the square foot and stories are 1665, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

34. 2025-09-09
    status Active 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    The property is located at 4948 Kaia Avenue WINTER HAVEN FL 33884 priced at 284590, the square foot and stories are 1665, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

35. 2025-08-07
    historical 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    The property is located at 4948 Kaia Avenue WINTER HAVEN FL 33884 priced at 284590, the square foot and stories are 1665, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

36. 2025-08-06
    listed $279,990 Active 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    The property is located at 4948 Kaia Avenue WINTER HAVEN FL 33884 priced at 284590, the square foot and stories are 1665, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,036 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,036 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,791
• − Property taxes: −$3,036
• − Insurance: −$1,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,071
• − Management: −$2,071
• − HOA: −$2,436
• − Depreciation: −$8,201
• Taxable loss: −$9,122
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,189
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1.6% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $284,590 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $284,590 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $283,590 Zillow
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $283,590 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $280,590 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $280,590 Zillow
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $283,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listed $285,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-03 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $283,490 Zillow
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $285,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $283,490 Zillow
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $285,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $288,490 Zillow
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $290,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $288,490 Zillow
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $290,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $297,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-09 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-08-07 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-08-06 Listed $279,990 Zillow