20155 E Mingus Dr · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,342 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1995 8,802 sqft lot Est $246k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Freshly updated and move-in ready home in Mayer featuring new interior and exterior paint, brand-new flooring throughout, and a new roof for added value and peace of mind. Enjoy refreshed finishes, great curb appeal, and comfortable living in this charming property.

Key facts

• New exterior paint
• New flooring
• Curb appeal

Tags

• NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW ROOF
• CURB APPEAL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Utilities: Propane service; Private water company; Septic (installed and connected)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Desert landscaping in the back; Gravel/stone in the front; County-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full bathroom in primary bedroom; Skylights; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mayer Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 373 students, 93% FRL); Mayer High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 200 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $260k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,551 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.49%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,586
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20415 E Sierra Dr E #8	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+3%)	4mo	$289,000	$209	74
20576 E Quail Run Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+3%)	16mo	$230,500	$167	64
20605 E Conestoga Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+6%)	6mo	$260,000	$183	64
20809 E Antelope Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+1%)	3mo	$239,900	$178	63
20629 E Prickly Pear Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,407 (+5%)	7mo	$199,900	$142	60
20542 E Stagecoach Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	19mo	$220,000	$176	55
20225 E Conestoga Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,173 (-13%)	16mo	$239,000	$204	55
20518 E Sierra Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,210 (-10%)	14mo	$224,900	$186	50
16035 S Rodeo Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,308 (-2%)	19mo	$245,000	$187	49
16035 S Rodeo Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,308 (-2%)	19mo	$245,000	$187	49
20720 E Larry Lane Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+14%)	6mo	$210,000	$138	49
20721 E Mingus Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	8mo	$190,000	$165	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $128,092
• Equity at exit: $234,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $387,875
• Equity at exit: $504,929

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,898/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,274

Max offer price $229,258

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-32	-5% $-122	+0% $-212	+5% $-302	+10% $-391
Rent	-10% $-370	-5% $-291	+0% $-212	+5% $-133	+10% $-53
Rate	-1.0pp $-81	-0.5pp $-146	base $-212	+0.5pp $-279	+1.0pp $-348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $259,900 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $259,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $259,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-05-27
   listed $259,900 Active 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Freshly updated and move-in ready home in Mayer featuring new interior and exterior paint, brand-new flooring throughout, and a new roof for added value and peace of mind. Enjoy refreshed finishes, great curb appeal, and comfortable living in this charming property.

5. 2026-05-27
   listed $259,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Freshly updated and move-in ready home in Mayer featuring new interior and exterior paint, brand-new flooring throughout, and a new roof for added value and peace of mind. Enjoy refreshed finishes, great curb appeal, and comfortable living in this charming property.

6. 2026-03-18
   soldstatus $125,000
7. 2017-10-23
   soldstatus $114,000 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   Wonderful 3 bedroom 2 full bath split floor plan. Ceiling fans, newer a/c and propane heat. Newer wood laminate and ceramic tile flooring throughout. Large open kitchen with a breakfast bar, refrigerator included. Laundry room contains a newer energy efficient washer and dryer set. Master with walk in closet. Perimeter chain link fence and rear block wall for privacy. 2 Culverts with RV gate. Large stick built storage shed. Great mountain views from the covered front porch. Nice quiet area for you and your family. No required HOA.

8. 2017-10-20
   soldstatus $114,000
9. 2010-06-02
   historical
10. 2010-02-17
    listed $110,000
11. 2007-06-04
    soldstatus $102,890
12. 2007-06-04
    soldstatus $102,890
13. 2005-03-25
    soldstatus $9,500
14. 2004-12-03
    listed $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$3,898
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$7,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,704
• After-tax cash flow: $-837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2499.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $259,900 ARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Listed $259,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-23 Sold (MLS) $114,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-02-17 Listed $110,000 ARMLS
• 2007-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $102,890 Public Records
• 2007-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $102,890 Public Records
• 2005-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $9,500 Public Records
• 2004-12-03 Listed $10,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $418 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.