3610 Falling Leaf Ln · Lockhart, FL 32810

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1984 6,297 sqft lot Est $306k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION! Welcome to Shady Grove a quiet neighborhood at the end of a cul-de-sac. NO HOA. Fantastic opportunity to own a home in one of Orlando's most convenient locations with access to highly rated schools and just minutes from Costco, Altamonte Mall, shopping, dining, entertainment, and major roadways. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers plenty of space and endless potential for a first-time homebuyer, investor, or anyone looking to create their dream home. The garage has been converted into a 4th bedroom, providing additional living space, but can easily be converted back to a traditional garage if desired. Spacious screened e

Key facts

• Complete re-piping
• Converted garage
• New hvac system

Tags

• CONVERTED GARAGE
• MAJOR SYSTEM UPGRADES
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• COMPLETE RE-PIPING
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL WIRING
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned R-1; No CDD; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces north; Homesteaded
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.14-acre lot
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Interior laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($211/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.6% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#228 in FL, #3,605 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riverside Elementary (math 34% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,758 of 2,144 statewide, top 83%, 540 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 160 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $250k implies a 250% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,568 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.30%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,432
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3741 Shady Grove Cir	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,044 (-9%)	2mo	$180,000	$172	74
3602 Oranole Rd	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,101 (-4%)	4mo	$290,000	$263	68
7806 Compass Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,134 (-2%)	11mo	$335,000	$295	65
3509 Greatbear Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,122 (-3%)	21mo	$330,000	$294	58
3504 Erie Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,295 (+12%)	22mo	$345,000	$266	36
2407 Greenleaf Dr	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (-8%)	20mo	$265,000	$249	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-44,225
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-55,955
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32810

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,926 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,062/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,903

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $88	+0% $18	+5% $-53	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-135	-5% $-58	+0% $18	+5% $94	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $81	base $18	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3709 Needles Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,750	$1.40	16d	1	0.20mi
3120 Drake Dr Unit 1258738P Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$6,376	$4.42	3d	1	0.25mi
3108 Pembrook Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1346	$2,210	$1.64	5d	1	0.30mi
3806 Groome Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1111	$2,400	$2.16	25d	1	0.50mi
858 Grand Regency Pointe #103 Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1194	$1,800	$1.51	4d	1	0.51mi
852 Grand Regency Pointe #100 Altamonte Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,600	$1.45	25d	1	0.51mi
860 Grand Regency Pointe Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	25d	1	0.53mi
2740 Maitland Crossing Way #201 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,595	$1.50	25d	1	0.55mi
2617 Drake Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1347	$2,001	$1.49	25d	1	0.56mi
2729 Maitland Crossing Way #304 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1009	$1,700	$1.68	25d	1	0.58mi
3717 Clubside Pointe Dr Unit 1 Orlando, FL	3.0	3.0	1344	$2,100	$1.56	25d	1	0.60mi
2705 Maitland Crossing Way Unit 5-102 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,725	$1.62	16d	1	0.61mi
2705 Maitland Crossing Way Unit 303 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1009	$1,695	$1.68	16d	1	0.61mi
3757 Clubside Pointe Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1264	$1,750	$1.38	25d	1	0.61mi
826 Grand Regency Pointe #202 Altamonte Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,625	$1.39	4d	1	0.63mi
826 Grand Regency Pointe #202 Altamonte Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,625	$1.39	6d	1	0.63mi
822 Grand Regency Pointe #103 Altamonte Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,495	$1.35	16d	1	0.65mi
822 Grand Regency Pointe #103 Altamonte Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,495	$1.35	21d	1	0.65mi
825 Grand Regency Pointe #103 Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1194	$1,800	$1.51	25d	1	0.65mi
823 Grand Regency Pointe Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1194	$1,700	$1.42	25d	1	0.66mi
821 Grand Regency Pointe Altamonte Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,470	$1.26	25d	1	0.67mi
2639 Maitland Crossing Way #206 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1009	$1,750	$1.73	25d	1	0.68mi
2639 Maitland Crossing Way #107 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,800	$1.69	25d	1	0.68mi
7618 Forest City Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,662	$1.77	5d	3	0.70mi
2549 Maitland Crossing Way #11207 Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1313	$1,950	$1.49	25d	1	0.70mi
2404 Calloway Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1224	$2,170	$1.77	25d	1	0.71mi
2603 Maitland Crossing Way Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,550	$1.46	9d	1	0.73mi
9301 Summit Centre Way Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$2,945	$2.91	5d	1	0.77mi
6998 Woodlake Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1053	$1,600	$1.52	25d	1	0.85mi
3911 Alpert Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,795	$1.40	3d	1	0.87mi
3940 Alpert Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,695	$1.54	16d	1	0.91mi
3908 Magnolia Pointe Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,795	$1.49	25d	1	0.93mi
6750 Woodlake Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	797	$1,700	$2.13	4d	18	0.97mi
912 Innovation Way Altamonte Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1055	$2,654	$2.52	3d	28	0.97mi
9000 Summit Centre Way Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$2,375	$2.13	4d	15	0.99mi
8636 Villa Pt Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1156	$2,225	$1.92	3d	38	1.00mi
6741 Magnolia Pointe Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,695	$1.36	25d	1	1.00mi
7120 Forest City Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$1,499	$1.64	9d	11	1.01mi
895 Broadstone Way Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$2,771	$2.70	3d	33	1.06mi
588 Brantley Terrace Way Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,875	$1.43	25d	2	1.12mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $250,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,062 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,013/yr (+$84/mo · 95.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,062
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,849
• − Management: −$1,849
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,178
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,003
• After-tax cash flow: $1,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #3605

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockhart, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 37,127
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 36,927
• Household income: $60,799
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1859.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 29% White 25% Two or more races 16% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.77%
• Current HPI: 347.7447
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.50%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+331.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $71,500 Public Records
• 1996-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,062 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.