609 Dunhill Rd · Josephine, TX 75173

$297,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,090 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

Built 2026 6,098 sqft lot $143/sqft · at area comps Est $313k · at est. $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One story, 4 bed, 3 bath, study, open concept, island in the kitchen, covered back porch.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Covered back porch
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• ISLAND IN THE KITCHEN
• COVERED BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-454 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (22.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $210,832 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.53%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,105
• List price: $297,990
• Delta: -4.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 Riverbrook	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,088 (-0%)	1mo	$319,990	$153	94
401 Riverbrook Ln	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,242 (+7%)	1mo	$337,990	$151	82
601 Barlow Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,088 (-0%)	2mo	$294,490	$141	79
512 Barlow Dr	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,088 (-0%)	2mo	$302,205	$145	77
312 Pennington Rd	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,098 (+0%)	3mo	$359,900	$172	72
314 Pennington Rd	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,112 (+1%)	2mo	$369,900	$175	72
503 Murray Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,160 (+3%)	0mo	$399,900	$185	71
616 Lansdowne Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,242 (+7%)	2mo	$301,490	$134	68
613 Lansdowne Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,875 (-10%)	1mo	$270,490	$144	61
1112 Riverbrook Ln	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,875 (-10%)	1mo	$290,490	$155	54
1133 Northfield Dr	0.60mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (-10%)	3mo	$244,990	$129	47
1173 Northfield Dr	0.65mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (-10%)	1mo	$245,990	$130	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $133,461
• Equity at exit: $268,453

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $415,885
• Equity at exit: $578,929

Cash invested: $83,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,108 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,470/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,683

Max offer price $232,329

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-248	-5% $-351	+0% $-454	+5% $-557	+10% $-660
Rent	-10% $-620	-5% $-537	+0% $-454	+5% $-370	+10% $-287
Rate	-1.0pp $-304	-0.5pp $-378	base $-454	+0.5pp $-531	+1.0pp $-610

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,498
• Closing costs: $8,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 Barlow Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2090	$2,075	$0.99	45d	1	0.43mi
304 Red Stream Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	20d	1	0.53mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	14d	1	0.53mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	12d	1	0.53mi
1208 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2088	$2,095	$1.00	45d	1	0.56mi
1117 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	5.0	2.5	1954	$2,095	$1.07	45d	1	0.58mi
1216 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,000	$1.24	0d	1	0.58mi
305 Charmed Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,000	$1.35	0d	1	0.60mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	0d	1	0.64mi
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	0d	1	0.76mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	9d	1	0.81mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	0d	1	0.87mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	3d	1	0.92mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	1d	1	0.94mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	9d	1	0.94mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	6d	1	0.96mi
813 Cottonwood Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2347	$2,350	$1.00	14d	1	0.96mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	45d	1	1.00mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	14d	1	1.13mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	45d	1	1.16mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	8d	1	1.17mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	26d	1	1.24mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	12d	1	1.30mi
1208 Fieldstone Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	45d	1	1.39mi
1210 Honeysuckle Dr Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	1995	$2,100	$1.05	14d	1	1.39mi
711 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	9d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $297,990 Pending 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $297,990 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $297,990 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $297,990 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $297,990 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $297,990 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $297,990 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-05-13
   price $297,990 89-char remark

   Show marketing remark (89 chars)

   One story, 4 bed, 3 bath, study, open concept, island in the kitchen, covered back porch.

9. 2026-04-13
   listed $329,990 Active 89-char remark

   Show marketing remark (89 chars)

   One story, 4 bed, 3 bath, study, open concept, island in the kitchen, covered back porch.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,692
• − Property taxes: −$4,470
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,024
• − Management: −$2,024
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$8,669
• Taxable loss: −$10,789
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,589
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,856/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $297,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $329,990 NTREIS