2802 40th St · Lubbock, TX 79413

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,479 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition 8,613 sqft lot $98/sqft · 6% below area Est $155k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently updated investment opportunity in an established Lubbock neighborhood. This property features new flooring throughout majority of the home and updated bathrooms with granite vanities, and new granite countertops in the kitchen as well. Functional layout with solid rental potential and minimal immediate maintenance needs. Suitable for both long-term hold or resale.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Granite vanities
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• GRANITE VANITIES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SOLID RENTAL POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wheelock El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 323 students, 92% FRL); Slaton Middle (math 13% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 355 students, 96% FRL); Monterey H S (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,114 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 60% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.53%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,067
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -6.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2619 44th St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,460 (-1%)	13mo	$199,000	$136	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-15,205
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,588
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79413

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,376 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,358/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,182

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $235	-5% $194	+0% $153	+5% $112	+10% $71
Rent	-10% $45	-5% $99	+0% $153	+5% $208	+10% $262
Rate	-1.0pp $226	-0.5pp $190	base $153	+0.5pp $116	+1.0pp $78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2712 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,300	$1.14	45d	1	0.20mi
2812 43rd St Unit 6 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$700	$0.63	45d	1	0.21mi
2812 43rd St Unit 7 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$750	$0.68	23d	1	0.22mi
2609 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,550	$1.06	23d	1	0.22mi
2801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,700	$1.87	45d	1	0.23mi
2605 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	882	$995	$1.13	15d	1	0.24mi
2616 37th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	23d	1	0.25mi
2815 43rd St Unit 11 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1085	$800	$0.74	23d	1	0.26mi
2521 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	902	$1,195	$1.32	23d	1	0.26mi
2706 44th St Apt C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$680	$0.76	45d	1	0.27mi
2521 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	990	$925	$0.93	45d	1	0.28mi
3019 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,250	$1.19	23d	1	0.28mi
3108 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,295	$0.86	23d	1	0.30mi
2701 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	657	$1,075	$1.64	15d	25	0.33mi
2514 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	943	$950	$1.01	15d	1	0.33mi
2611 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	45d	1	0.33mi
2607 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	988	$1,325	$1.34	45d	1	0.34mi
3114 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,375	$0.92	45d	1	0.34mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	45d	1	0.36mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	15d	1	0.36mi
3126 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1248	$1,195	$0.96	45d	1	0.37mi
3114 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	988	$1,095	$1.11	45d	1	0.38mi
2508 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,700	$1.14	45d	1	0.38mi
3105 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,375	$1.02	23d	1	0.39mi
2506 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,550	$1.47	23d	1	0.39mi
3006 46th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1047	$995	$0.95	23d	1	0.40mi
2504 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	939	$995	$1.06	45d	1	0.43mi
2823 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1105	$950	$0.86	45d	1	0.43mi
3006 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1016	$1,150	$1.13	23d	1	0.46mi
3019 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1573	$1,500	$0.95	15d	1	0.48mi
3101 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1250	$999	$0.80	45d	1	0.49mi
2403 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1786	$1,700	$0.95	45d	1	0.49mi
2400 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,225	$1.21	15d	23	0.51mi
3007 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1353	$1,325	$0.98	23d	1	0.52mi
3019 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,400	$1.08	23d	1	0.52mi
2408 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1072	$995	$0.93	23d	1	0.56mi
3116 33rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	45d	1	0.56mi
2412 46th St Apt A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	945	$795	$0.84	23d	1	0.58mi
2406 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	943	$775	$0.82	23d	1	0.60mi
2614 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$1,650	$1.07	45d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $145,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   status $145,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $145,000 Pending 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $145,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    price $145,000 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Recently updated investment opportunity in an established Lubbock neighborhood. This property features new flooring throughout majority of the home and updated bathrooms with granite vanities, and new granite countertops in the kitchen as well. Functional layout with solid rental potential and minimal immediate maintenance needs. Suitable for both long-term hold or resale.

16. 2026-03-18
    price $1,600
17. 2026-03-17
    listed $165,000 Active 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Recently updated investment opportunity in an established Lubbock neighborhood. This property features new flooring throughout majority of the home and updated bathrooms with granite vanities, and new granite countertops in the kitchen as well. Functional layout with solid rental potential and minimal immediate maintenance needs. Suitable for both long-term hold or resale.

18. 2026-01-09
    listed $1,650
19. 2025-10-07
    soldstatus
20. 2023-01-20
    price $97,000
21. 2023-01-12
    price $98,000
22. 2000-11-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,358 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,296/yr (+$108/mo · 95.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,515
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,358
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,321
• − Management: −$1,321
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$550
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$132
• After-tax cash flow: $1,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This recently updated single-family home in Lubbock, TX, offers a good investment opportunity with minimal immediate maintenance needs and solid rental potential. The property features new flooring, updated bathrooms, and granite countertops, making it ready for move-in.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers
• Both painting exterior and interior walls — fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and modern
• Both upgrading windows — newer windows can improve energy efficiency and increase home value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers ↑
• Both painting exterior and interior walls — fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and modern ↑
• Both upgrading windows — newer windows can improve energy efficiency and increase home value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,343
• Household income: $69,400
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 18% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.52%
• Current HPI: 239.8854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+48.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $145,000 LARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $1,600 LARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $165,000 LARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed for Rent $1,650 LARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-01-20 Price Changed $97,000 LARMLS
• 2023-01-12 Price Changed $98,000 LARMLS
• 2000-11-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,358 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.